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We were recently investigating the pedigree of the up-and-coming juvenile Vincent Mangano (NZ), who is by No Excuse Needed (GB) (by Machiavellian) out of a mare by Housebuster. Based on the Machiavellian/Blushing Groom (FR) cross, this resulted in a TrueNicks rating of D.

Out of curiosity, we looked at the mating on another nicking system and found that Vincent Mangano came up with a rating of A, although it was rated on a Mr. Prospector/Housebuster cross. Reconfiguring to find a Machiavellian/Blushing Groom cross, we found that it still rated A.

Now for the same cross to produce such radically different ratings seems rather strange, but it goes to the different methodologies employed. Because other systems employ a relatively small database that records only a group of stakes winners, their ratings — out of necessity — compare the success of crosses relative only to the proportion of the representation in their database. Now, the Machiavellian/Blushing Groom cross has produced five other stakes winners, all group/graded — including the English group I winner, Dutch Art (GB) — and this is good in proportion to the percentage of Machiavellian-line stakes winners and Blushing Groom-line stakes winners in a database that looks no further than stakes victories.

What TrueNicks factors in is the number of real life attempts for matings between Machiavellian and his sons with Blushing Groom-line mares. With Machiavellian and his sons primarily being active in Europe, a region with an extensive Blushing Groom representation, the cross has been tried much more frequently than random opportunity from a group of stakes winners would suggest. The TrueNicks rating reveals that, while the cross has had its successes, its overall performance has been inferior to that of Machiavellian and his sons with all other mares, and with the stakes production rate of those mares with Machiavellian-line starters when bred to all other stallions.

We present this contrast as part of our user education material to encourage “intelligent interpretation.” The difference between ratings based on hypothetical opportunity versus based on real opportunity can make an underperforming cross appear to be rock-solid when in fact it is, overall, disappointing.

So — back to our subject horse, Vincent Mangano. What is it that sets him, or other successful representatives of the Machiavellian/Blushing Groom cross, apart as an exception to a rather low-rated pedigree pattern?

The colt has something in common with Dutch Art, the best runner bred on the cross to date. Both No Excuse Needed (sire of Vincent Mangano) and Medicean (GB) (sire of Dutch Art) go back in tail-female line to mares by Blushing Groom’s sire, Red God. No Excuse Needed is particularly interesting as his granddam is the very good sprinting filly, Greenland Park (IRE), a three-time group winner, who was by Red God out of mare by a son of Tom Fool, and so had the closely-related Spring Run (dam of Red God) and Tom Fool 2 x 3. Doubtless this made him particularly receptive to another shot of Red God through his best son, Blushing Groom.

Filed under: Recent Winners, Validity