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A Classic Case of Coincidence?

Wednesday, May 29, 2013 10:40 AM

The interpretation of Thoroughbred pedigrees is no simple matter. The multi-factorial elements that might be considered include nicks, inbreeding, linebreeding, the positions of ancestors relative to one another, the relationship of the pedigree to the female line, and the class of the individuals involved. Given the volume of the data, and the difficulty of... Read More...

Written by Alan Porter | May 29, 2013 | 12 Comments

Kentucky Derby 139 Pedigrees Examined

Thursday, May 02, 2013 5:00 AM

Now that post positions are set, what are your opinions on the Kentucky Derby this year? Below are some of my thoughts along with links to video of recent workouts and complimentary TrueNicks Enhanced Reports for each entrant in post position order. 1. Black Onyx (50-1) Black Onyx follows a similar form line to Animal Kingdom, who also prepped in a Gulfstream... Read More...

Written by Ian Tapp | May 02, 2013 | 26 Comments

Analyzing Overanalyze

Tuesday, April 16, 2013 4:30 PM

The death of Dixie Union in July 2010 was a serious loss for commercial breeders. As a mid-priced horse (he stood for $35,000 in his final season) who was an extremely consistent stakes sire, and who also consistently got a physically attractive horse, he was almost a "must use," particularly for the market breeder. At the time, the only thing preventing Dixie... Read More...

Written by Alan Porter | Apr 16, 2013 | 4 Comments

Distance Questions Begin for Kentucky Derby Contenders

Tuesday, April 02, 2013 3:40 PM

With the final round of Kentucky Derby (gr. I) preps underway, so begins the usual analysis of top contenders—Are they good enough?—Will they get the distance? TrueNicks Enhanced Reports include the average winning distance (AWD) for the starters on given sire line/broodmare sire line cross. A table of the top 10 contenders (by Derby points) and their cross AWD... Read More...

Written by Ian Tapp | Apr 02, 2013 | 32 Comments

Is Silverbulletday Skipping a Generation?

Wednesday, March 27, 2013 1:30 PM

Sunland Park's big day turned into a benefit for Bob Baffert and Mike Pegram, who took the Sunland Park Derby (gr. III, VIDEO ) with Govenor Charlie (also bred by Pegram) and the Sunland Park Oaks ( VIDEO ) with Midnight Lucky (owned by Pegram in partnership). The duo—who both scored in track record time—are both from the first crop of the Baffert-trained/Pegram... Read More...

Written by Alan Porter | Mar 27, 2013 | 20 Comments

Union Rags vs. Paynter Pace Graph

Monday, June 11, 2012 9:00 AM

Here's a quick follow-up to our pre-Belmont post on pace , where the take-home was that flatter pace lines do best in the 12-furlong classic. This year's race gave another example where the winner had the more consistent pace. Mike Smith wanted the lead with Paynter, but to get there they had to run a very quick opening quarter (:23 3/5), one of the fastest opening... Read More...

Written by Ian Tapp | Jun 11, 2012 | 14 Comments

Belmont: It's More About Pace Than Distance

Friday, June 08, 2012 12:15 PM

Approaching the Belmont Stakes (gr. I)—the longest leg of the Triple Crown—why does it seem that those day-and-night distance questions we asked for every starter going into the Kentucky Derby (gr. I) are now pushed to the back burner? Now we focus more on the riders, and who has the experience to ride effectively in what is a most unusual race. With its 20-horse... Read More...

Written by Ian Tapp | Jun 08, 2012 | 12 Comments

Derby Pedigrees Examined

Thursday, April 26, 2012 4:30 PM

In terms of depth, this year's 3-year-old crop is shaping up to be the best since 2007, which gave us Street Sense ( TrueNicks , SRO ), Curlin ( TrueNicks , SRO ), Rags to Riches, Hard Spun ( TrueNicks , SRO ), and Any Given Saturday ( TrueNicks , SRO ). Nine days out from the Kentucky Derby, the field looks to be highly competitive with most of the top contenders... Read More...

Written by Ian Tapp | Apr 26, 2012 | 112 Comments

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Two Good Weekends for Broken Vow

Monday, April 16, 2012 11:45 AM

In his first crop, sired at a relatively modest fee of $10,000, Broken Vow ( TrueNicks , SRO ) came up with a very promising colt in Private Vow. Winner of the Futurity Stakes (gr. II) and Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes (gr. II), Private Vow might also have gone close in the Breeders' Cup Futurity (gr. I) had a rein not broken in the straight. A leading winter fancy... Read More...

Written by Alan Porter | Apr 16, 2012 | 2 Comments

On to Kentucky for Gemologist, I'll Have Another

Thursday, April 12, 2012 11:30 AM

The most recent weekend saw another pair of grade I Kentucky Derby (gr. I) preps, with the Wood Memorial at Aqueduct and the Santa Anita Derby on the West Coast. In New York, two of the leading Derby hopefuls, Gemologist and Alpha, had to finish in the first two to be certain of having sufficient graded earnings to make the field. In the event, they achieved... Read More...

Written by Alan Porter | Apr 12, 2012 | 0 Comments

El Padrino's Breeder Takes Realistic Approach

Wednesday, February 29, 2012 3:00 PM

We're always happy to see TrueNicks customers succeed on the racetrack, and we were especially thrilled when Derby prospect El Padrino won the Risen Star Stakes (gr. II) over the weekend. Emory Hamilton, breeder of El Padrino, uses TrueNicks broodmare reports for her mares, and a report for El Padrino's dam, Enchanted Rock, identified Pulpit ( TrueNicks , SRO... Read More...

Written by Ian Tapp | Feb 29, 2012 | 0 Comments

Can Union Rags Stretch Out?

Tuesday, February 28, 2012 3:00 PM

Union Rags, who remained winter favorite for the Kentucky Derby (gr. I) despite a narrow loss to Hansen ( TrueNicks ) in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile (gr. I), made his keenly-awaited seasonal debut in the Fountain of Youth Stakes (gr. II, video ) at Gulfstream Park. The wait proved worthwhile, as Union Rags could hardly have been more impressive, settling behind... Read More...

Written by Alan Porter | Feb 28, 2012 | 18 Comments

Southwest Winners Fit Separate Profiles

Tuesday, February 21, 2012 2:30 PM

It appears – to paraphrase the song about New York – that the Southwest Stakes (gr. III) has become the race “so good they ran it twice.” Since 2004, when Smarty Jones swept the series en route to victories in the Kentucky Derby (gr. I) and Preakness Stakes (gr. I), the Oaklawn Park road to the Triple Crown – the Southwest Stakes (gr. III), Rebel Stakes (gr.... Read More...

Written by Alan Porter | Feb 21, 2012 | 1 Comment

Alpha Leads Bernardini's Weekend Classic Duo

Tuesday, February 07, 2012 3:00 PM

Darley's young gun Bernardini ( TrueNicks , SRO ) proved himself with two classic types over the weekend, one in America in the shape of Alpha, who won the Withers (gr. III) and heads towards the Wood Memorial (gr. I) in his run for the roses, and another in Dubai in the filly Gamilati, who gave the rest of the field a decent thumping in the UAE 1000 Guineas... Read More...

Written by Byron Rogers | Feb 07, 2012 | 2 Comments

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Hansen Looks to the Future

Thursday, January 26, 2012 9:00 PM

While the equine Hansen ( TrueNicks ) – the champion 2-year-old of 2011 – is pointing to the Holy Bull Stakes (gr. III) and hopefully his first step on the road to the Kentucky Derby (gr. I), his owner and breeder, Dr. Kendall Hansen, is looking well beyond the Run for the Roses. With a long-term view to his star's eventual stud career, Dr. Hansen has subscribed... Read More...

Written by Alan Porter | Jan 26, 2012 | 3 Comments

Roman Ruler Ices Belmont Stakes

Wednesday, June 15, 2011 12:00 PM

A muddy renewal of the Belmont Stakes (gr. I, video below) always seemed to have the potential to deliver an upset, and so it proved, with the unheralded Ruler On Ice (TrueNicks B+ ) defeating Stay Thirsty and Brilliant Speed, with the Kentucky Derby (gr. I) and Preakness Stakes (gr. I) winners Animal Kingdom and Shackleford off the board (as an aside, when,... Read More...

Written by Alan Porter | Jun 15, 2011 | 1 Comment

Classic Longshots Boost Young Sires

Monday, June 13, 2011 6:05 PM

Incredibly, 2011 was the first time in history that all three Triple Crown races were won by horses with double-digit odds, but longshot or not, siring a classic winner is an achievement not to be taken lightly, especially for a young sire. The chart below shows longshot (10-1 or longer) classic winners since 2000 and the resulting effect on their sires' fees... Read More...

Written by Ian Tapp | Jun 13, 2011 | 8 Comments

Belmont Stakes TrueNicks Available

Wednesday, June 08, 2011 2:30 PM

Complimentary TrueNicks Enhanced reports are available for the Belmont Stakes (gr. I) field listed below. Click on the horse's name or letter grade to view the report. To help analyze which horses may have the profile for the 12-furlong Belmont distance, each cross's average winning distance is included in the table—see the full report for addition cross-specific... Read More...

Written by Ian Tapp | Jun 08, 2011 | 17 Comments

A Ford Too Swift to Cross

Friday, May 27, 2011 5:00 PM

Having come within a furlong of stealing the Kentucky Derby (gr. I) off very slow early fractions, Shackleford succeeded in capturing the Preakness Stakes (gr. I, video below) after what appeared to be a suicidal first quarter. We’d noted that the victory of the turf-bred Animal Kingdom in the Derby came in a contest which was actually run like a turf race, with... Read More...

Written by Alan Porter | May 27, 2011 | 9 Comments

10 Preakness Winners, 10 Champions

Friday, May 20, 2011 2:45 PM

The last 10 Preakness winners went on to be named champion 3-year-olds, confirming it as the most formful Triple Crown race over the past decade. But what makes the Preakness such a great race? Click here for complimentary TrueNicks Enhanced Reports for the 2011 Preakness field. Year Preakness Winner Sire 2001 Point Given ( TrueNicks , SRO ) Thunder Gulch ( TrueNicks... Read More...

Written by Ian Tapp | May 20, 2011 | 9 Comments

Preakness Stakes Enhanced Reports

Wednesday, May 18, 2011 5:45 PM

Complimentary TrueNicks Enhanced reports are available for the Preakness Stakes (gr. I) field listed below. Click on the horse's name or letter grade to view the report. To help analyze which horses may have the profile for the 9.5-furlong Preakness distance, each cross's average winning distance is included in the table—see the full report for addition cross... Read More...

Written by Ian Tapp | May 18, 2011 | 5 Comments

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