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Classic Longshots Boost Young Sires

Incredibly, 2011 was the first time in history that all three Triple Crown races were won by horses with double-digit odds, but longshot or not, siring a classic winner is an achievement not to be taken lightly, especially for a young sire.

The chart below shows longshot (10-1 or longer) classic winners since 2000 and the resulting effect on their sires' fees. Fees for high-profile, established stallions such as Gone West, A.P. Indy, and Distorted Humor (TrueNicks,SRO) (in 2010) weren't directly affected by a classic win—perhaps the Triple Crown win only confirmed their reputation. But for young sires with only first or second crop 3-year-olds, siring a classic winner usually leads to a big fee increase the following season.

What will the 2011 Triple Crown will mean for Leroidesanimaux, Forestry (TrueNicks,SRO), and Roman Ruler (TrueNicks,SRO)?

RaceWinnerOddsSireCropFee Bred OnFee at Time of WinFollowing Season's Fee
2011 BelmontRuler On Ice24-1Roman Ruler2nd$30,000$15,000?
2011 PreaknessShackleford12-1Forestry8th$125,000$12,500?
2011 DerbyAnimal Kingdom20-1Leroidesanimaux2nd$25,000$10,000 (to $12,500 after Derby)?
2010 BelmontDrosselmeyer13-1Distorted Humor8th$150,000$100,000$100,000
2009 BelmontSummer Bird11-1Birdstone1st$10,000$10,000$30,000
2009 DerbyMine That Bird50-1Birdstone1st$10,000$10,000$30,000
2008 BelmontDa' Tara38-1Tiznow3rd$30,000$30,000$75,000
2006 PreaknessBernardini12-1A.P. Indy10th$300,000$300,000$300,000
2005 DerbyGiacomo50-1Holy Bull7th$25,000$15,000$15,000
2004 BelmontBirdstone36-1Grindstone4th$10,000$7,500$10,000
2003 DerbyFunny Cide12-1Distorted Humor1st$12,500$20,000$50,000
2002 BelmontSarava70-1Wild Again9th$60,000$50,000Private (limited book, fertility)
2002 DerbyWar Emblem20-1Our Emblem2nd$10,000$7,500$35,000
2001 DerbyMonarchos10-1Maria's Mon1st$7,500$12,500$35,000
2000 BelmontCommendable18-1Gone West9th$75,000$125,000$125,000

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8 Comments:

I would be interested to see what the stud fee at time of conception was for these stallions. Interesting to see that in 2007 Forestry was at $125k, up 25k from 2006.

Dennis 14 Jun 2011 12:57 PM

Interesting story. I think Birdstone, Leroidesanimaux and Forestry will be recognized as excellent sires down the road. Time will tell!

However, North American breeders have to start embracing foreign-born stallions, and soon, because of the inbreeding issue and the number of top American sires producing conformation flaws, unsoundness and bleeders. Stallions like Leroidesanimaux, Candy Ride, Street Cry, and others with European or South American bloodlines are needed.

Terry M. 14 Jun 2011 2:21 PM

Dennis,

Good idea, thanks. The chart's getting a bit crammed, but now I've added the fees these horses were bred on (time of conception).

Ian Tapp 14 Jun 2011 3:55 PM

Ian,

Thanks for adding that column.

It's interesting to see what the conception fee was given all the current talk of fee adjustments due to the current economic climate. Interesting to note that Shackleford was a 275k RNA, imagine if he had sold, given vet fees, stud fees and sales prep they would have turned little to no profit.

Dennis 14 Jun 2011 9:00 PM

What a fascinating chart! I believe that Forestry's stud fee will pop back up next year, especially if Shackleford were to win the Eclipse award as champion three-year-old.

Looking at how Birdstone's stud fee increased upon the classic victories of Mine That Bird and Summer Bird, it got me to thinking about how Birdstone's progeny have performed since then. No real stars have emerged from his subsequent crops. Do you think that we have seen the best of Birdstone's foals, and that future crops will yield fewer good horses, or will he rebound with some new stars in the near future?

Once again, great post!

-Keelerman

-Keelerman 14 Jun 2011 11:27 PM

When was the last time the winners of the Derby and Preakness ran in the Belmont and neither hit the board? In fact none of the first six in the Derby could make the first three in the Belmont.

Alan Porter 15 Jun 2011 12:17 PM

Keelerman,

Birdstone just had another graded winner, Birdrun, who took the Brooklyn Handicap (gr. II), from his first crop. He's now actually had five graded winners from that crop, including Summer Bird and Mine Than Bird.

This is just typical of a the profile of a modern stallion who didn't start at the leading edge of commerciality - a bright start, but not enough strength in the next crops to maintain momentum. Birdstone will have had a good book of mares in 2010 (the year following Summer Bird/Mine That Bird's classics), so look out for him to rebound in 2014.

Alan Porter 15 Jun 2011 12:30 PM

Alan;

Thank you for your reply! Excellent point regarding Birdrun, he slipped my mind. I've always been fond of Birdstone and will be looking foward to seeing his progeny hit the racetrack in 2014.

In regards to your question as to when was the last time that the Derby and Preakness winners met in the Belmont and both failed to hit the board, this outcome occurred last in 1993. Kentucky Derby winner Sea Hero and Preakness winner Prairie Bayou squared off in the Belmont, with Sea Hero finishing seventh and Prairie Bayou breaking down.

-Keelerman

-Keelerman 15 Jun 2011 11:16 PM

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