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Reader Q&A--Statistical Inquiries on Nicking

Thursday, May 26, 2011 5:30 PM

Alan Porter's recent post on the Galileo/Danehill nick inspired some lively discussion in the comments section. One of our most outspoken and analytical community members, known by the handle sceptre , posed a very good set of questions that we thought we'd address here in a new blog. 1. Consider two stallions, one has but 90+ named foals of which 16% are SWs... Read More...

Written by Byron Rogers | May 26, 2011 | 9 Comments

Interpreting a Nick Rating

Thursday, January 13, 2011 9:30 AM

Recently, one of our readers submitted an excellent question about interpreting the TrueNicks Enhanced report. Byron Rogers and Alan Porter, the co-developers of TrueNicks and partners in Pedigree Consultants , offer their responses below. Todd asks: I have a question about interpreting some of the different sets of statistics available in the Enhanced TrueNicks... Read More...

Written by Ian Tapp | Jan 13, 2011 | 2 Comments

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Poll: Hopeful 2YOs

Thursday, September 02, 2010 11:45 AM

Freaky juvenile colts Boys At Tosconova ( TrueNicks ), Stay Thirsty ( TrueNicks ), and Wine Police ( TrueNicks ) will square off in Monday's Hopeful Stakes (gr. I) at Saratoga. These talented maiden winners will look to progress for their sires Officer ( TrueNicks , SRO ), Bernardini ( TrueNicks , SRO ), and Speightstown ( TrueNicks , SRO ). Who do you like?... Read More...

Written by Ian Tapp | Sep 02, 2010 | 16 Comments

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Poll: Best Sire-Producing Race?

Wednesday, August 25, 2010 5:00 PM

Which was the better sire-producing race? online survey Read More...

Written by Ian Tapp | Aug 25, 2010 | 8 Comments

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Reader Q&A--Why Not "Sire and his Sons"?

Monday, August 23, 2010 1:00 PM

TrueNicks community user russf posted a comment under the recent blog post Updated Cross Notations for TrueNicks which we thought warranted a closer look at the logic flow behind the TrueNicks algorithm. russf commented: Congrats on these updated cross notations, this is helpful. But please help me understand how the algorithm decides which stallion to use. For... Read More...

Written by Byron Rogers | Aug 23, 2010 | 3 Comments

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Reader Challenge: Mystery Mare

Thursday, August 19, 2010 5:00 PM

A world record priced yearling at auction, the mare depicted above traces in tail female to several champion sires and exceptional racers, including a winner of two grade I events that will be run this weekend – albeit one via disqualification. Name this mare, the grade I winner mentioned, and the two grade I races won by that horse. As a bonus, name three champion... Read More...

Written by Ian Tapp | Aug 19, 2010 | 49 Comments

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Poll: The Bluest of Bluebloods

Thursday, August 12, 2010 6:45 PM

Interesting question... Which of these royally-bred and yet-to-be-raced Thoroughbreds has the most impressive pedigree? Explain your choice in the comments section below. Which pedigree is bluest blueblood? online survey Read More...

Written by Ian Tapp | Aug 12, 2010 | 30 Comments

Poll: Pivotal or Redoute's Choice?

Thursday, August 05, 2010 10:00 AM

Imagine that we had the opportunity to import a top international sire to the U.S. – consider Pivotal and Redoute's Choice , champion sires in Europe and Australia, respectively. Linked below are the Stallion Affinity Reports for these stallions, detailing their affinities with all active broodmare sires. Which stallion do you think would best fit the U.S. broodmare... Read More...

Written by Ian Tapp | Aug 05, 2010 | 11 Comments

Reader Challenge: Pedigree ID

Tuesday, August 03, 2010 5:00 PM

Reader challenge: Identify the following four horses represented by their 3-cross pedigrees. Note that Broodmare Sire x is the same horse in all pedigrees, as is Sire y . It may be useful to consult the list of TrueNicks subscribed stallions to solve this week's puzzle. TrueNicks ratings are up-to-date as of time of publishing, but the exact variant may change... Read More...

Written by Ian Tapp | Aug 03, 2010 | 10 Comments

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Reader's Question: Zenyatta & Rachel

Tuesday, July 27, 2010 10:00 PM

On 27 Jul 2010 8:46 PM, John writes: "Why does Rachel Alexandra get an A++, while Zenyatta gets just an A+? Am I missing something?" Ian's response: Hi John, Thanks for your question. TrueNicks is a sire line nicking program that measures how well a sire line/broodmare sire line cross has fared at producing stakes winners. TrueNicks is a particularly useful research... Read More...

Written by Ian Tapp | Jul 27, 2010 | 13 Comments

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Dream Match-Up Looms in Personal Ensign

Monday, July 26, 2010 12:00 PM

The Personal Ensign Stakes (gr. I) will be run Sunday, August 29th – the day after the Travers Stakes (gr. I) – at Saratoga Race Course. Already pointing to the race is Life At Ten ( TrueNicks A ), who is riding a six-race win streak that includes the Ogden Phipps Handicap (gr. I) and a powerful score in the 10-furlong Delaware Handicap (gr. II). The daughter... Read More...

Written by Ian Tapp | Jul 26, 2010 | 152 Comments

Reader Challenge: A Strong Nick

Friday, July 16, 2010 2:00 PM

Reader challenge: Identify these two stallions and the only runner bred by crossing them together. This specific cross is a subset of a strong nick that has already produced two grade I winners – who are they and what is the nick? Leave your guess in the comments section below. Responses will be posted on Monday, July 19. Good luck! UPDATE: Congrats to all who... Read More...

Written by Ian Tapp | Jul 16, 2010 | 22 Comments

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Poll Question: Going the Distance

Tuesday, July 13, 2010 2:30 PM

The Fasig-Tipton July Sale is currently underway ( Click here for Fasig-Tipton July TrueNicks reports ). You'd probably be pleased if your yearling purchase goes on to win a graded stakes race regardless of the distance, but – in an ideal scenario – what distance would you prefer? Explain your choice in the comments section below. If your yearling purchase could... Read More...

Written by Ian Tapp | Jul 13, 2010 | 21 Comments

Reader Q&A - Derby Contender Nicks?

Friday, March 05, 2010 10:20 AM

Michelle asks: Where can I find the TrueNicks ratings for horses that are running in the prep races leading up to the Kentucky Derby? Byron's response: Thanks for taking the time to send us this email. Judging by your question we should probably make a better effort at getting the TrueNicks ratings integrated and displayed on The Blood-Horse web site (www.bloodhorse... Read More...

Written by Byron Rogers | Mar 05, 2010 | 1 Comment

Q&A - Why a 'C' Rating?

Monday, February 15, 2010 1:22 PM

Phyllis asks: Using the Equineline data base, I found that Even the Score and a Deputy Minister line mare produced the filly Four Gifts, a grade III winner who has earned well in excess of $600,000 (and still running). I called and spoke to the farm today about a season with my Deputy Minister mare. I did a TrueNick, and see that it is being rated as a C Nick... Read More...

Written by Alan Porter 1 | Feb 15, 2010 | 2 Comments

What's the Difference?

Sunday, January 10, 2010 12:30 PM

Russell asks : Why are the ratings found in the Stallion Affinity Report not the same as the ratings obtained by running an individual mating? As an example, Storm Cat over Yonaguska gets a TrueNicks rating of A+ according to the sample affinity report shown for Storm Cat. I ran my Yonaguska mare, Bella Cherokee, with Frost Giant using the TrueNicks link on the... Read More...

Written by Alan Porter 1 | Jan 10, 2010 | 2 Comments

Q&A - Why Does It Mean When a TrueNicks Rating is a 'No Rating'?

Tuesday, November 17, 2009 7:16 AM

Kim asks : I did a TrueNick with Bertrando and Benson's Girl (by Buddha) and it said no rating. What does that mean? Alan's response: Thank you for the inquiry. For TrueNicks to compute a rating there must be either two stakes winners bred on the cross, or 15 starters. If there are insufficient stakes winners or starters on the sire/broodmare sire cross, the... Read More...

Written by Alan Porter 1 | Nov 17, 2009 | 3 Comments

Q&A - What are the Differences Between TrueNicks & Other Nicking Systems? What's More Important, a 'Good' Dosage Profile or a Good Nick Rating?

Monday, October 05, 2009 4:26 PM

Dawn asks : I am somewhat new to this and really need some help. have a mare named Buy You A Bear (Bayou Hebert x Sheckyrilla - Shecky Greene) that I am contemplating breeding to Borrego or Leroidesanimaux. These are my questions: 1) Based on TrueNicks, she nicks better with 'Leroi' than Borrego, but her Dosage is better with Borrego and she has more stakes winners... Read More...

Written by Alan Porter 1 | Oct 05, 2009 | 8 Comments

User Q&A -- Why Does Holy Bull/In Reality Outrate Holy Bull Sons in the Same Cross?

Monday, August 17, 2009 9:33 AM

Chad asks : The TrueNicks for Holy Bull / In Reality is listed as an A , yet when entering his sons the rating is listed as a C , based on Holy Bull / In Reality. What is the factor (BSII, variant, ?) responsible for the difference? I have not found that such a discrepancy doesn't exist when using Unbridled's Song and sons (other than variant). Alan's response... Read More...

Written by Alan Porter 1 | Aug 17, 2009 | 2 Comments

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Reader Question -- Why do the Dosage Index and TrueNicks Score Seem to Disagree Sometimes?

Tuesday, February 03, 2009 9:08 AM

Reader question: Hi, Scot. I have read the history behind and understand what the DP, CD, and DI figures stand for but my question is: Why does it seem that good or higher DP numbers are sometimes in conflict with the nicks? In nicking my mare with stallions I'll get higher or better DP numbers with a "C" nick then with an "A". I guess the follow-up question... Read More...

Written by sgillies | Feb 03, 2009 | 3 Comments

Reader Question -- Just Perfect

Monday, February 02, 2009 8:02 AM

Reader question : I recently ran a cross for my mare Enthrall (by Lyphard out of Swift Gal) with a stallion that entered New York for 2008 named Utopia (Jpn). He is by Forty Niner. I came up with a TrueNicks pattern of an “A.” I was pretty excited and forged this decision on paper in the form of a contract. I thought that Alan Porter and Byron Rogers don’t readily... Read More...

Written by Alan Porter 1 | Feb 02, 2009 | 0 Comments

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Reader Question -- Cross Produces Grade I Winners But Rates Poorly... Why?

Friday, January 30, 2009 9:58 AM

Question from Ryan : My question is why do I get a B rating nick but when you look at the cross and it has produced G1 stakes winners? Then the opposite happens when I get a A++ nick but there may not even be a graded stakes winner produced? Alan's reply : Hi Ryan. Thank you for the question. The reason that the you might get a B rating (not that bad in itself... Read More...

Written by Alan Porter 1 | Jan 30, 2009 | 0 Comments

READER Q&A - Should I Breed My Mare?

Thursday, January 22, 2009 5:37 AM

Reader's question: My mare Pebbles Delight has an A++ wih Corinthian. She has been accepted to his book for 2009. However, since she doesn't have a lot of black type up front, I probably won't make any profit on the resulting foal. What are your thoughts on this mating? I love the mating, but my pocketbook needs to rule rather than my heart. Sally. Byron's reply... Read More...

Written by Byron Rogers | Jan 22, 2009 | 25 Comments

Reader Question -- Broodmare Analysis Report with Free Stallions

Friday, January 16, 2009 11:26 AM

Question from Randy : Why would I pay for something that really should be available for free from sponsoring farms? Scot's reply : Thank you for your question. Within the Broodmare Analysis Report, hypothetical matings can be created for all active stallions, regardless of whether they are subscribed to the service. The report cost does not vary, whether you... Read More...

Written by sgillies | Jan 16, 2009 | 0 Comments

Reader Q&A -- This Cross Produced Multiple Grade I Winners, Why Is It a "C" Rating?

Wednesday, December 10, 2008 2:35 PM

Question from "DZ" : When using Exchange Rate nicking with Buckpasser mare line the nick comes up with a C rating, yet it shows top performers with the cross throwing 5 separate grade I winners. Why not a higher nick rating? Alan's reply : Thank you for the question. The Danzig/Buckpasser cross is one that has existed for a considerable time, in fact the first... Read More...

Written by Alan Porter 1 | Dec 10, 2008 | 13 Comments

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