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It would definitely be storm flag flyings offspring, with personal ensign  , storm cat,and mr. prospector on the sires side.

I see decent sized holes in all. I gave a luke warm vote to the Invincible Spirit-Urban Sea, but have concern with mare's age at conception/during gestation. Is by top young sire out of truly exceptional producing dam. Better Than Honour and Hasili are also great producers, but feel Street Cry with Better Than Honour has chance of producing a plotter (note her Giant's Causeway), and Empire Maker with Hasili is an unproven pedigree combination as well as Empire Maker only being a questionable + influence. Sliding Cube and Rumplestiltskin are totally unproven producers, and Storm Flag Flying hasn't as yet shown much as a producer (though very limited). Joie Denise good producer, but not exceptional, and More Than Ready while a very good stallion, is not near elite. Strongly disagree with Ms. Stich's remark "...more often than not..." full sentence, both in general, and also as it applies to this unproven broodmare's mating. History tells a rather different story...Seven horses are listed here. I'd say there is a better chance than even that none become graded stakes winners.    

Ah perhaps More Than Ready is "not near elite" in USA, but is one of the top sires in Australia. Joie Denise produced two remarkable mares, Sunday Joy and Tuesday Joy. Sunday Joy herself is dam of More Joyous, sired by More Than Ready. More Joyous is winner of the Tea Rose and Flight Stakes, and this Joy of Bridie also a More Than Ready. Very good mating here.

I like the Storm flag Flying Filly I'll take a filly as close to PE as I can get thanks very much. SFF is a nice Phenotype and I really Like some of Smart Strikes kids in looks - LAL looks really good lately. Even if she isnt herself a star with a filly like this you could build from.

With that Said its the Street Cry Better then H filly next - BTH is a strong up hill mare and I do Love Zen's Daddy - a filly like this will need time to develop

PS-of the listed pairs-Urban Sea's foal!

Last first: This one is a 3/4-sister to G1 winner Manhattan Rain. The dam beat colts in the San Domenico S (only G3, but a spring classic trial of some note) and ran second in the G2 Light Fingers, a fillies' classic trial. The second dam not only foaled Manhattan Rain but the top runner and ubersire Redoute's Choice; she is a 3/4-sister to multiple G1 winner He's No Pie Easter. The female line is one of the strongest on the planet, that of Best in Show. Sire is a proven top class getter of SWs. This must be the first foal out of the dam, but one could reasonably expect she would be a runner, barring accidents. The downside is it seems to be oriented towards precocity and shorter distances; Manhattan Rain did not progress following his 3yo spring, and Redoute's Choice was best at a mile or less.

That said, Hasili is the sort of mare whom one could "breed to the teaser and get a SW." At least if the teaser had Danzig close up. Empire Maker's Northern Dancer is of a very different sort; the classic distance type El Gran Senor. Would it work out as well as the Danzig type?

Getting too long, more later.

Hasili. That is it.

So, you will keep this in the hopper and we will get a report 12 months, 24 months..on the results of this "contest"..breeding takes years..decades..you are on the line now. Don't tease us. It is not like we can get the results of the crossword puzzel in next weeks' addition. YOU started this!

The Urban Sea colt is the one I chose ! Urban Sea is one of the best broodmares of recent times ! Her progeny includes excellent sire Galileo by Sadlers Wells and the European Horse of the Year Sea The Stars by Cape Cross, plus My Typhoon by Giant's Causeway and others ! Better Than Honour is another broodmare that will be hard to duplicate ! Two classic winners in a row ! Urban Sea just never seems to throw a bad horse !

Ian,

The Galileo-Rumplestiltskin colt did, in fact, break his maiden yesterday, but that was his 3rd start.

Hi Ian,

I'd guess about 5 out of 7 become winners. Since we're guessing, I'd say the Empire Maker-Hasili would be the least likely winner (it's a filly, Juddmonte's not commercial, and they'll be careful with this one)-but, at least, it's already lived to 2...All this (previous comment) from one who loves to buy older mares...Take a look at the stats for Keeneland sale toppers through the years-relative to graded stakes winners. Why should these seven have any better chances?  

Dave,

Where are you getting these figures from? Our experience with RF is that it is far from absolute and relies heavily on particular mares in particular positions with particular sires for success above the norm.

Eight Carat is about as good a mare as you can get as far as a producer and there are 186 foals inbred to her within 4 generations and only one stakes winner (Obsequious).

Byron

brogers,

You ought to do some studying.  Just recently, Concord Point and Position Limit are RF.  The statistics are from archives of rasmussen studies.

Dave,

I think that you are confusing "superior" with "any" and even in the case of the loosely defined "superior", as I have discussed with Eight Carat above, this doesn't mean that inbreeding to her alone (and it is a long bow to stretch to say her alone contributed to the success of the horse) equates to success.

Let's look at Concord Point. Given that both Relaunch and Moon Glitter were pretty good racehorses and Foggy Note was a good producer we should, at least by your definition, see a lot of stakes winners inbred to Foggy Note.

What is more reason to see this is that Relaunch sired his own (admittedly dwindling) sireline, Moon Glitter established a foil with significant sire descendants Glitterman, Rubiano and Tapit and even the other half sister Belle O'Reason gave us the modest sire Chimes Band. With enough branches established, you would think that inbreeding to Foggy Note would be found everywhere in various recombinations of Relaunch/Glitterman/Rubiano/Chimes Band/Tapit. Alas you are going to be disappointed.

By my count there are only 4 stakes winners inbred to Foggy Note - Concord Point, Bow Tie Pasta, Good Response and Redreamit. Two of these stakes winners are by Tapit. It may interest you that Tapit has 10 foals of racing age by mares carrying Relaunch in their pedigrees; of these, five have started (all winners) and two are stakes winners: Concord Point and Redreamit, winner of the 2009 Twin Lights Stakes at Monmouth.

But this all gets back to my first point. Saying that Concord Point is successful because of his RF is a long bow to draw and even if it was, in the case of Foggy Note it is only under particular circumstances (i.e with Tapit when combined with Relaunch) which makes widespread commercial application of RF theory across all horses with Foggy Note in their pedigree difficult to achieve and from a genetic inheritance standpoint tenuous at best.

I see where Ian has directed Ms. Stich back to this blog re-her added comments on the RF (I suspect she was hoping that Alan would agree with her position "...more often than not..."). Dave and Lauren seem essentially to be in the same camp, whereas Byron and myself are somewhat less enthusiastic about the RF Factor's value.

Let me say that time and space here can't give adequate justice to this debate-there are just too many related topics to consider. Also, anecdotes tend to prove nothing, although Racing, in general, seems to survive by this technique (a little bit of positive data can inspire those with less perspective)...Mr. Rasmussen was a student of the breed-he had perspective. His columns were my favorite reads on the Morning Telegraph/DRF. He OBSERVED what he later labeled, RF, and I early on observed it as well. But time, study, and reflection have left me with much skepticism as to its value. I doubt there is, or will be, any statistical study that would change my mind. Again, anecdotes are certainly meaningless...A horse possessing the RF would be inbred to superior females through different sources. Let's refine it a bit to read: inbred to superior producers through different proven positive sources. I say this, because should the source, or sources not be positive, all else equal, there's a better chance than not that the eventual offspring wouldn't possess a reasonable amount (whatever that is?) of the genes which made this RF female so desirable. Another issue (of the too numerous to discuss here): Ex.- all else equal, why is it preferable to have a, let's say, double Lalun (i.e. inbred to Lalun), over a similar pedigree wherein one of those two Laluns is substituted for a Mumtaz Mahal (in same position), etc.? This question touches upon the supposed virtues of inbreeding. Another point: Let's assume that both sources for the RF female are positive. They, however, may be positive for "reasons" totally other than the influence of the RF female (here in single form). This is meant to suggest that the decendants of the RF female may owe their "positivity" to the genes acquired from other sources in their pedigrees-that it could well be that their (genetic) "brand" of the RF female is largely devoid of the genetic material that initially caused its greatness. I realize this can be postulated for any mating, be it an RF one, or not, but it speaks somewhat to the complexity of this issue, and warns against taking such an optimistic stance  re-RF matings. Consider also why there isn't such fervor over inbreeding to any particular stallion-ever. I'm one who readily admits that the absolute finest genetic material is likely contained within the female population (it's simple mathematics, as a far greater proportion of the female population is retained within the breeding population). Identification of those "ultra-elite" females is, however, another matter. It's entirely possible that none were/are identified as RF Factor females. What I'm suggesting is that even a *La Troienne may not, in reality, be among those that are genetically superior to all males...As I said, this is a large topic. I've merely touched upon a few morsels for thought.

Dave,

Your inability to fully comprehend some portions of my post is likely not due to any failure on your part. My writing skills are somewhat lacking, and I felt the need to cram too much into a small space. It was written unedited, off the top of my head, and a later post-posting re-read proved unsatisfying. I should have explained it a bit better with more elaboration.

Hope your colt heals well, and is given ample time for a full recovery (preventing his need to compensate).