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Ten Myths: You've Read the Report, Now Watch the Webinar!
Thursday, August 06, 2009 9:30 AM

A few weeks back, we presented a fun paper called Top 10 Myths About Nicks in Thoroughbred Breeding . Today at 2 p.m., Alan Porter and Byron Rogers will host a half-hour video on the topic. Alan and Byron will also be available to take questions after the presentation. The Webinar is FREE and easy to access. Just register here . Read More...

by sgillies | 1 comment(s)

Filed under: Announcements, Validity, Suggested Reading, Pedigree Elements

Before She Was a Stakes Winner She was a TrueNicks A++ Rated Horse!
Tuesday, June 09, 2009 3:55 PM

While Medaglia d'Oro's sale to Darley may have temporarily averted the spotlight towards the son of El Prado (IRE) ( TrueNicks , SRO ) , young Gainesway stallion Tapit ( TrueNicks , SRO ) continues to duke it out with him in the production of stakes winners. Malibu Beach became stakes winner number six for Tapit June 5 when she won the Alyssum Stakes at Belmont... Read More...

by brogers | 3 comment(s)

Filed under: Recent Winners, Validity

A Year On -- TrueNicks Scores From the 2008 March OBS Sale of 2-Year-Olds
Thursday, April 02, 2009 10:30 AM

As a prelude to the stallion study -- which is currently "under construction" as we determine the best way to track all the horses that we have rated by each sire throughout the world -- we thought that it was worthwhile going back and taking a look at the 2008 OBS March sale of 2-year-olds to examine the horses that rated well with TrueNicks from that sale.... Read More...

by brogers | 12 comment(s)

Filed under: Recent Winners, Validity, Auctions and Sales, 2-Year-Olds, 2YOs of 2009 Study

Quite Contrary Exceptions
Wednesday, March 11, 2009 3:42 PM

Before being made available to the public, TrueNicks was tested on a group of more than 100,000 horses. That study firmly established a correlation between a high nick rating and success at stakes level: in fact, while only 13% of the population earned a variant rating high enough to qualify for a rating of A or better, 37% of stakes winners achieved that rating... Read More...

by aporter | 7 comment(s)

Filed under: Hypothetical Matings, Pedigrees and Breeding, Validity, Other Breeding Theories

Using TrueNicks to Predict Racetrack Success
Thursday, March 05, 2009 10:42 AM

With the first Northern Hemisphere 2-year-old races set to get underway shortly, we thought that this year we would do something that allowed us to follow TrueNicks as a predictor of racetrack success . We debated a couple of ways we could do this, with the primary goals of offering a statistically sound study and one that is trackable in 2009. An ideal solution... Read More...

by brogers | 3 comment(s)

Filed under: Validity, 2-Year-Olds, 2YOs of 2009 Study

Reader Question -- Cross Produces Grade I Winners But Rates Poorly... Why?
Friday, January 30, 2009 9:58 AM

Question from Ryan : My question is why do I get a B rating nick but when you look at the cross and it has produced G1 stakes winners? Then the opposite happens when I get a A++ nick but there may not even be a graded stakes winner produced? Alan's reply : Hi Ryan. Thank you for the question. The reason that the you might get a B rating (not that bad in itself... Read More...

by aporter | with no comments

Filed under: Validity, Readers' Questions

No Apologies: TrueNicks Reports the Bad with the Good
Wednesday, October 29, 2008 4:25 PM

Feedback from TrueNicks users and other readers of this blog comes in various formats -- some by email, some by comments to our article posts. Most are printable, a few are not. An email just arrived from a subscriber to both TrueNicks and a rival service. We figured that while the comment was not meant to be complimentary, we would publish it and get your feedback... Read More...

by brogers | 13 comment(s)

Filed under: Validity, Readers' Questions

Juvenile Errors
Wednesday, October 15, 2008 9:18 AM

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by aporter | 2 comment(s)

Filed under: Recent Winners, Validity

5 Things You Should Know About Thoroughbred Nicking
Tuesday, September 23, 2008 9:06 PM

If you're not completely familiar with the basic premise of sire-line nicking, here it is in a nutshell: Specific affinities of stallions of one male line for mares from other sire lines -- called nicks -- have made a profound impact on the development of the Thoroughbred. Today's powerful data-processing computers have now made it possible to measure and rate... Read More...

by brogers | 12 comment(s)

Filed under: Pedigrees and Breeding, Validity

Luck — Or Opportunity?
Wednesday, August 06, 2008 12:20 PM

We had yet another example of the imporatance of considering opportunity when creating nick ratings with the August 1 victory of Luck Money in the Majestic Light Stakes at Saratoga. Irish-bred Luck Money was scoring his first stakes victory, although he'd been third to superstar Henrythenavigator in the Coventry Stakes (gr. II) and captured the Goffs Million... Read More...

by sgillies | with no comments

Filed under: Recent Winners, Validity, Emerging Nicks

Opportunity Knocks
Monday, August 04, 2008 12:19 PM

Some recent articles by propents of rival nicking systems have floated the idea that somehow programs that don't use a database of worldwide stakes winners, and don't consider true opportunity - in fact they admit they don't use opportunity at all - can be more accurate than the TrueNicks program that considers true opportunity, and utilizes the comprehensive... Read More...

by sgillies | 1 comment(s)

Filed under: Recent Winners, Validity

Reader Q&A: Cost vs. Quality
Saturday, August 02, 2008 12:16 PM

Question : My question is whether there a much greater risk factor when considering between two stallions that differ in the fact that one has many proven mares and was a very good performer himself, while the other is a young stallion that is well-bred but has never raced because of an injury, and doesn't yet have a large number of offspring? The two stallions... Read More...

by sgillies | with no comments

Filed under: Hypothetical Matings, Pedigrees and Breeding, Validity, Readers' Questions

Readers Ask: Seeking the Gold/Halo
Friday, June 27, 2008 11:06 AM

Q: I was looking for nicks with a mare by Abaginone. Your reports show an A++ for a Seeking the Gold/Halo crossing but all the stakes winners listed are by one sire, Mutakddim, out of Southern Halo mares bred in Argentina. Is this a statistical quirk or a valid basis for generalizing about a Seeking the Gold/Halo nick? A: Thank you for the question. The calculation... Read More...

by admin | with no comments

Filed under: Validity, Readers' Questions, Emerging Nicks

Golden Daffodil
Thursday, June 26, 2008 2:06 PM

That under-appreciated Nijinsky II line stallion, Hernando (by Niniski), is having an excellent run with his current crop of three-year-olds, which include the English Oaks (gr. 1) victress Look Here ( A+ TrueNick Rating ); Casual Conquest ( A+ ), winner of Derrinstown Derby Trial (gr. II) and third in the English Derby (gr. 1); and most recently, on June 24... Read More...

by admin | with no comments

Filed under: Recent Winners, Validity

A Generation Removed
Wednesday, June 11, 2008 3:06 PM

We are often asked the question on nick ratings - "do they work across multiple generations?" The answer ironically depends on the genuine strength of the affinity between the sire lines in question. Examples of nicks that seem to span generations and withstand the scrutiny of time include Fappiano over In Reality-line mares and Seattle Slew over Mr. Prospector... Read More...

by admin | with no comments

Filed under: Sire Lines, Validity

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