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User Q&A -- Why Does Holy Bull/In Reality Outrate Holy Bull Sons in the Same Cross?

Chad asks: The TrueNicks for Holy Bull / In Reality is listed as an A, yet when entering his sons the rating is listed as a C, based on Holy Bull / In Reality. What is the factor (BSII, variant, ?) responsible for the difference? I have not found that such a discrepancy doesn't exist when using Unbridled's Song and sons (other than variant).

 Alan's response: Thank you for the question.

The Holy Bull mating is rated A as Holy Bull has considerably outperformed opportunity when crossed with In Reality-line mares (he has two stakes winners on the cross, and the nick has a variant rating of 2.72, indicating that it has done 2.72 times as well as opportunity). If we look at the mating of a Holy Bull son with the same In Reality-line mare, we see that the cross has done less well at producing stakes winners relative to opportunity (1.19 times). The list of best horses on the cross (representing stakes winners sired by Holy Bull and his sons out of In Reality-line mares) still only shows two stakes winners (both by Holy Bull).

So what has happened is that Holy Bull's sons have added starters (opportunity) to the calculation, but not stakes winners. The cross, when it includes his sons, has increased the opportunity for the nick without increasing the amount of success. The exact degree of increase of opportunity would depend on the stakes winners by the Holy Bull sons out of other mares, and the stakes winners produced by all mares bred to Holy Bull and his sons, when bred to other stallions.

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