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Very interesting article guys. I have long been fascinated by Energy Distribution, a term I learned from Tom Brohamer's book Modern Pace Handicapping. All sorts of interesting applications...

good articule. very informitive. another theroy that you dont hear of anymore is stride angle. ill have another had a perfect stride angle. street life has a good 1 ,as well. "an ole railbird"

I really liked this article-and read it over several times. Thee were two statements that stood out (to me). 1. "Generally, this race is won with controlled deceleration." and 2. "Keeping a steady, flat line of pace is the most productive tactic." So, here's a few comments:

It's been my observation that the vast majority of US races-at all distances- tend to be run at decelerated quarters, and, along with this, the individual competitors tend to decelerate throughout the race. Here and there there are the exceptions, but US racing tends to be competed in this manner (unlike many european races). I would think that a Belmont Stakes would somewhat divert from this norm, because it's 1 1/2 M is such an uncommon distance today, but your data suggests a similar pace scenario.-but it also indicates, as you say, that a flatter line of pace may prove most successful. Also, take a look at Secretariat's Belmont fractions. For the most part it was "a controlled deceleration", and very close to a flat line of pace. So, I'm just wondering if your Belmont "pace rule" (i.e. the "flat line" ideal) might also better suit most runners at all distances? Could we then also make "best scenario rules" (best distance rules) for each variety of horse-i.e. those with higher fast twitch/slow twitch ratios, those with the inverse, etc.? Race distance aside, would any of these subgroups prefer a different pace scenario?      

Hi Ian,

Thanks for that explanation; it was helpful and thought stimulating. Ian, your article renewed my curiosity about pace and the physiologic variables involved. Again, the data you offered which suggests a flat line optimal pace for the Belmont deserves more pondering. The physiology of fast twitch/slow twitch muscle fibers as well as other physiologic variables must have a great impact on what is the ideal pace scenario for any individual horse. Yes, all muscles gradually fatigue under exertion-the fast twitch type IIB the most rapidly. But, while these variations in gradual fatigue are the physiologic norm, I ask myself this question- must it follow that deceleration during a race be the optimal pace scenario for a runner (note your optimal flat line pace scenario for the Belmont)? Let's take, for example, the sprinter racehorse whose optimal distance is, let's say, 6 f. (He's labeled a sprinter because he peforms best ((relative to the entire population)) at 6 f. All else equal, he has a somewhat higher ratio of type IIB fast twitch/slow twitch fibers than the average for the breed.-so a greater % of his muscle fibers will fatigue more rapidly, while at the same time he will be capable of a greater burst of speed. But that said, how do we know that his final 6 f time would not be swifter if he traveled that distance in equal 1/4 mile splits-or any variations on this theme? This question could be similarly posed for all distances and all fast twitch/slow twitch configurations. On a somewhat separate note- Some research suggests that these muscle fiber ratios can be modified with "training". This potentiality aside, it would seem that there are gains to be had by identifying an individual horse's muscle fiber ratios. Such answers should enable us to better choose what distance best suits this horse and, perhaps (if there's any merit to my earlier query), the ideal pace scenario within that distance. Must we find these answers at the genetic level, or can they now be found cytologically?          

i wish i had read this before the belmont!

all over the web, the most ardent union rags supporters are gloating to all of us who said that dixie unions can't stay (which we say because until yesterday, no dixie union had won past 9 furlongs, not one out of 720 foals).

but this theory actually predicted that union rags would win the belmont--my biggest knock against union rags is that he never accelerates at all--he runs the same pace through out ever race--so he appears to close fast, but actually it is only closing fact in comparison to the deceleration of the other horses, his own pace line remains about the same. against good horses this is a losing stratgey most of the time, because they will have created and insurmountable lead, unless those behind are rapidly increasing their pace significantly, a la the best closer we have ever seen--zenyatta.

i have a feeling if you plot union rags's belmont it will prove to be one of the flattest ever run, which is why those who think this means his belmont victory puts him in contention for the travers, the jcgc, and especially the bcc, will be in for a rude awakening. in most races with legitmate pace and strong competitors, he'll always be where he was for the florida derby and the kentucky derby--gaining but not catching.

i've seen a lot of people saying that union rags's fall will be like summer bird's champion fall season, but they seem to not notice that summer bird ran the belmont in 2:27.54, not 2:30.42, like union rags--union rags's time is more comparable to the one and done's: ruler on ice-2:30.88, drosselmeyer-2.31, commendable--2:31...i just don't see union rags beating a horse like game on dude at a mile and a in under 2 minutes at santa anita this novemeber (a sub 2 minute bcc is very likely at SA), based on the wining the belmont in the fifth slowest time since 1971.

thanks again! very interesting and informative article!!

Click here to see the Union Rags vs. Paynter graph