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Line-breeding to Northern Dancer and Nasrullah in Thoroughbred Stallion Pedigrees

Question from Shimatoree:  Would you please comment on the influence of inbreeding ( or line-breeding) to Northern Dancer and Nasrullah in stallion pedigrees.

 

Alan's reply:  That is a difficult question to reply to in general terms. Historically, what I have seen happen is that inbreeding to a famous horse is an emotive issue when it first appears, but after a while begins to be taken for granted. To give an example, in a book written around 1930 -- The Breed of The Racehorse by Becker -- fear is expressed that inbreeding to St. Simon (the greatest stallion of the late 19th century) is saturating the breed. Incidentally, Nearco, the sire of Nasrullah and grandsire of Northern Dancer, has four crosses of St. Simon in the first four generations of his pedigree (5 x 4 x 4 x 5) and a sister to St. Simon in the seventh.

Studies have tended to show inbreeding to any specific degree tends to be similar across the population of stakes winners and the population as a whole (the top commercial population tends to have a higher degree of inbreeding and line-breeding, as they are drawn from a smaller gene pool). What tends to have a positive influence is inbreeding in certain positions, and inbreeding through related strains -- brothers, sisters, half-siblings from the same sire line, and other crosses that are similar but less easily defined in terms of human relationships.
 
In most modern stallions, line-breeding to Nasrullah is probably too far back to have an obvious influence (which is not to say that accumulations of Nasrullah, his sisters Rivaz and Malindi; the similarly-bred Royal Charger; and relatives such as Mahmoud, Badruddin (broodmare sire of My Babu)  might not have an effect). Stallions with a Northern Dancer strain through horses that have relatives, such as Nijinsky II, his genetic relative The Minstrel (himself a relative to Vice Regent and Viceregal) and Far North, the similarly-bred Storm Bird, have a great opportunity to combine in interesting matings.

Successful sires that are inbred to Northern Dancer (within four generations) include Hernando, Oasis Dream, Rock of Gibraltar, Flying Spur, Spinning World, Touch Gold, and Redoute's Choice. Rock of Gibraltar, Flying Spur, and Redoute's Choice are all by Danehill, who brings in a half-sister to Northern Dancer.
 
I closing, I'll mention that I did see an article by Jay Leimbach that presented an interesting argument suggesting that leading sires are often inbred to a male line ancestor - for example, Seattle Slew, who carried on the Bold Ruler line, is inbred to Bold Ruler's sire, Nasrullah.

16 Comments:

That's an interesting point about Slew, since his best sire son, A.P. Indy brings in a third cross to Nasrullah (through a second cross to Bold Ruler), and Indy's best sire son to date, Pulpit, brings in two more crosses to Nasrullah, including a third cross to Bold Ruler.  It's early, but the promising Sky Mesa brings in two more Nasrullah lines (for 7 total) and another Bold Ruler line (for 4 total). Tapit's dam, however, has no Nasrullah in her pedigree.

LanceS 01 Dec 2008 12:03 PM

In Texas Pulpits son Special Rate brings in two additional strains of Nasrullah through Indian Hemp and Nantallah.  Special Rate being bred similarly Sky Mesa, it will be interesting to see his first crop, which are two year olds in 2009.    

Phil L 01 Dec 2008 8:09 PM

And don't forget Storm Cat!

danziggirl 01 Dec 2008 10:29 PM

I fail to see how inbreeding in certain positions can have any additional effect.....

CCB 01 Dec 2008 10:40 PM

Hi CCB,

Inbreeding in certain positions can have a number of effects. Firstly, some genes are sex-linked (travel only on the x or y chromosome - the y carrying much more genetic material) and some have sex-linked impression (they are not passed on through the sex-chromosome, but are manifested in different ways depending on whether inherited via a male or a female - I believe Prader-Willi Syndrome in humans is one).

Also the positions of the inbreeding relative to other duplications can be important. For example, inbreeding to Northern Dancer might become an entirely different thing if through (for example) Storm Cat and Dehere, both Northern Dancer/Secretariat crosses.

Alan Porter 02 Dec 2008 2:38 PM

I USED YOUR TRUENICKS HYPOTHETICAL  MATINGS AND NOTICED  THAT CLOSE INBREEDING TO STORM CAT ( 2x3) RECEIVES A 'F' RATING .IS THIS BECAUSE YOU DO NOT HAVE ENOUGH DATA? PLEASE EXPLAIN.

lindsay gay 03 Dec 2008 9:01 PM

Lindsay,

I just ran an unproven son of Storm Cat over a mare by a relatively unproven son of Storm Cat and the rating came back as a "D". There is certainly enough data to collect a result, it is just not a very good one!

If there was not enough data, the result would return "no rating". Basically what this "D" rating tells us is three things.

1) The chances of a horse bred on this cross being a stakes winner is rather small.

2) If you had a Storm Cat line mare, there are better stallions for you to breed to other than a Storm Cat line stallion

3) If you were managing a Storm Cat line stallion there are better broodmare sires to recommend than Storm Cat line mares.

Byron

brogers 03 Dec 2008 9:31 PM

How does a rating go from a D to an a++ in a few months . As an exaample City Zip with a Prospectors Gamble mare. I realize Mr P to Mr P had something to do with it and maybe it just became good, but that is quite a jump. Your competitor still rataes it a D.

  • Alan's replyThank you for the question.

City Zip has had a remarkable run with Mr. Prospector line mares of late. Bustin Stones (dam by Prospectors Gamble) won the Carter on April  5, when he was already a stakes winner.

Partners Star (dam by Thunder Gulch) won the Anna M. Fisher Debutante Sakes on August 16.

Suzy Zip (dam by Distorted Humor) won the Elge Rasberry Stakes on August 30.

Citizen (dam by Seeking the Gold) won the Meadowlake Stakes on October 25.

So, from August 16 onward, City Zip added three new stakes winners out of Mr Prospector-line mares. His stakes production record with Mr. Prospector-line mares is superior to his percentage of stakes winners out all other mares, and the percentage of stakes winners produced by those mares when bred to all other stallions.

TrueNicks is designed to rapidly reflect such changes, obviously "the other program" is not!

Bill B 04 Dec 2008 11:09 AM

I love Trunicks but I am base in Ireland none of our stud farms here use you guys. I have mare, her name is Dubai Diamond she is by Octagonal out of a Nureyev mare.

Is he any good as a broodmare sire? His father is the great Zabeel. What line of sires would you recomend for her? She has 2005 Barathea colt foal..3 wins. 2006 filly by Elusive Quality and 2007 by Seeking the Gold. She has 2008 by Smart Strike. Has she any chance of producing top quality progeny?

peter byrne 07 Dec 2008 7:17 AM

When using Exchange Rate nicking with Buckpasser mare line the nick comes up with a c rating, yet it shows top performers with the cross throwing 5 seperate grade 1 winners.  Why not a higher nick rating?

 
dz 09 Dec 2008 9:47 PM

would you recomend?for my maresany good sire they areby g slam el corredor and wheton

william 22 Dec 2008 2:17 AM

Storm Cat 2X3 not necessarily to be F. TrueNicks does not pay any attention to dam line at all. Look here: take any stallion by Storm Cat (for example, Tale of the Cat) and nick him to Little Miss Holly by Maria's Mon (her dam Common Hope is by Storm Cat). 5/11/11 result is A++72.69. Same day any stallion by Storm Cat nicked to any mare by Maria's Mon give the same rate. Who should care on dam's line?  

RP 07 Nov 2011 1:11 AM

RP,

Correct, TrueNicks is a sire line nicking program. There are many other factors to also keep in mind when planning matings, such as dam line/family, produce history, inbreeding, etc., etc.

Ian Tapp 07 Nov 2011 1:43 PM

I'm 71 years old and my chances of ever seeing a triple crown winner grows dimmer by the years.  The last really good horse I remember seeing was Spectacular Bid.  I feel privilaged to have watched the great Secretariat, and Seattle Slew and the exciting Affirmed Alydar rivalry, but there just aren't any great horses anymore.  The Nasarullah, Northern Dancer, Princequillo, Polynesian blood lines have been so diluted by speed horses, lasix horses, steroid horses that they no longer have any impact.  Unless by some miracle someone can breed a couple of great pure foundation stallions and find some quality mares somewhere and start all over there will never be another triple crown winner and racing will suffer for it. I would line breed like the devil if I thought it would solve the problem. I remember seeing great horses like Nashua, the dancer, bold ruler, they couldn't even win the crown because there was so much talent out there.  Now one really great horse could do it because there is no competition anymore.  I have to be satisfied that I saw Secretariat because I'm getting to old to wait for another champion to come along.  Please someone stop throwing Big Browns, Smarty Jones and Funny Cides at me and find that one freak out there that is a throwback to the old breeding that can run without drugs.

Carole Litus 09 Jun 2012 9:21 PM

Mr. Litus,

I hope sir, you live to be 100. And I also hope you see my horses run drug free.

Scott Parker 26 Jun 2012 11:21 AM

Thanks Scott, but I'm a Mrs not a Mr and I'll probably have to live to 100 to see another triple crown winner.  Tell me about your horses, who do I need to watch for.  I'm game.  I don't profess to know a lot about bloodlines but sure remember the sires of the great horses I've seen in my lifetime, I really want to see another great horse before they put me out to pasture.

Carole Litus 04 Jul 2012 1:11 PM

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