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Strike Rate -- Exchange Rate Proving a Prophecy

A few years ago we wrote an article about pedigree trends to come. One we suggested would be the combination of stallions bred on the Mr. Prospector/Buckpasser cross, notably Seeking the Gold, Woodman, Miswaki, and Mining.

Exchange Rate (TrueNicks,SRO) began his career in Florida but earned a move to Three Chimneys with a relatively inexpensively-sired first four crops that have now produced 19 stakes winners, including grade I winners Ermine and Swap Fliparoo. Exchange Rate is out of a mare by Seeking the Gold, and so far has had Southern Exchange (dam by Woodman), a two-time stakes winner at 2 in Canada and fourth in the Del Mar Futurity (gr. I); Bereba (dam by Miswaki), a stakes winner who also took third in the First Lady Handicap (gr. III); and R Brown Sugar (dam by Woodman), who recently took the Darley Ocala Breeders' Sale Sprint, all bred on a 3 x 2 cross of stallions fitting this Mr. Prospector/Buckpasser pattern.

Duplicating Mr. Prospector and Buckpasser in isolation has also been major factor in the Exchange Rate success story. So far a total of seven of Exchange Rate's stakes winners are out of Mr. Prospector-line mares, others including the Sapling Stakes and Barbaro Stakes (both gr. III) winner Xchanger and the extremely rapid Rated Fiesty, heroine of the Kentucky Breeder's Cup Stakes and Debutante Stakes (both gr. III). Buckpasser is in the dams of six of the Exchange Rate stakes winners, including grade I winners Ermine and Swap Fliparoo.

While on the subject of Exchange Rate and his stakes winners, there are a couple of other interesting pedigrees we can note. His daughter C Karma, who took the Natalma Stakes (gr. IIIT) at Woodbine last year, is out of C B Carm, who is by Slick. (It's okay if you're wondering, "Who's Slick?" The answer is that he's a modest son of Alydar). Slick is out of a mare by a son of Bold Ruler, making him a parallel Raise a Native/Bold Ruler cross to the dam of Exchange Rate, with the Raise a Native through the genetic relatives Mr. Prospector and Alydar. Incidentally, we recommended the purchase of C B Carm at the end of her racing career.

Another pedigree that caught our eye was that of the stakes-winning filly Cream Only. She's out of a mare by Time For A Change, and his broodmare sire, Reviewer, is a half-brother to Broadway, the dam of Seeking the Gold (who -- remember -- is, in turn, broodmare sire of Exchanger Rate). Seeking the Gold sired Australian grade I winner Secret Savings (subsequently a successful sire), out of a sister to Time For A Change, so it's a combination that works.

Finally, we hear good things about an Exchange Rate 2-year-old filly that is inbred to Exchange Rate's fourth dam, Native Partner, via similarly-bred half-sisters, so watch this space!

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8 Comments:

Mr Porter.......I can read articles like this all day long.  PLEASE keep them coming.  Any ideas for a Fly So Free mare with the female line of Northern Dancers full sister Artic Dancer?  I thought about Proud Citizen, but can't afford him.  She is going to Quiet American this year.  Her name is So Fly.  Thanks

ROBERT 03 Mar 2009 4:04 PM

Mr. Porter,  your on point as always.  Great Stuff.

X Factor 03 Mar 2009 10:24 PM

Mr. Porter,  your on point as always.  Great Stuff.

X Factor 03 Mar 2009 10:24 PM

Hi Robert,

Thanks. In broad terms there seem to be a number of ways to go with Fly So Free, and a mare going back to Arctic Dancer. Seeking the Gold is interesting with Time For A Change, doubling the mare Broadway (Seeking the Gold sired grade I winner Secret Savings out of a sister to Time For A Change). The dam of Fly So Free is something of a reverse cross to Mr. Prospector (Nashua/Native Dancer). Then of course any Northern Dancer would be interesting.

Talking purely in terms of pedigree patterns one could see things like Exchange Rate, Good Reward, Pure Prize, Jazil, Bob and John -- all combining Northern Dancer and Seeking the Gold. Majestic Warrior is out of a mare bred on a Seeking the Gold/Northern Dancer cross, and for an inexpensive horse with a lovely pedigree, have a look at Mr. Sekiguchi.

Incidentally, I see the dam of the mare is by Tom Rolfe out of a mare by Alleged, a grandson of Tom Rolfe! Anything that picks up on the Ribot and Princequillo in that background might also help.

TrueNicks of course have a Broodmare Analysis Report which you can order by clicking here and Pedigree Consultants also offers a report which incorporates the TrueNicks Broodmare Analysis Report which you can order by clicking here. You can also look at a sample here.

Alan Porter 04 Mar 2009 4:39 PM

Alan

I have a yearling Exchange Rate colt that is slightly small but made as well as any yearling i have ever seen.  Tough guy and muscles on top of muscles. He has to be handled on a daily basis or we can't catch him in the field.  He is out of a mare who has Buckpasser twice four deep.  Silver Buck and Buckaroo.  i will keep you up to date on his progress.

dave york 05 Mar 2009 6:25 AM

Hi Dave,

I guess that you might have Buckpasser in the male line of the mare. Exchange Rate's already had a grade one winner - Swap Fliparoo - from a Buckaroo mare.

Good luck with him!

Alan Porter 06 Mar 2009 8:58 AM

Bred a Two Punch mare to Mass Media with a similar thought in mind.  Mass Media is inbred to Buckpasser with Deputy Minister on top and Mr. Prospector on the damside through Forty Niner.  My thought was that I could capture the Mr. Prospector/Buckpasser cross and double it to an oblique extent through Two Punch.  Capture Norther Dancer twice as well to book the best empirical cross known to all breeders.  Would love to hear your analysis and thoughts.  I would be excited to hear it as much as I enjoy your work.  Thanks.

Kirk 30 Mar 2009 10:01 AM

I have a mare by Silver charm out of and unbridled mare. This match appeared to be mentioned favorably in your column, if I read it right.

I would like to breed her to Exchange rate but it is a "c" nick.

Would you comment?

James Peltier 24 May 2009 8:55 PM

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