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There's no contradiction. The cross of Medaglia d'Oro over mares by Roar generates an A++.

What I am indicating in the next paragraph is that - to my eyes - anyway, there is no one clearly definable reason that Medaglia d'Oro should particularly like Roar mares (there are a number of potentially complimentary factors, such as the well-placed Northern Dancer inbreeding - which of course would apply with any Northern Dancer line horse - more Ribot, and some Turn-to/Hail to Reason, and Princequillo, who are both good with Ribot, for obvious reasons).

I don't think we have a vain search for for potential contributing factors. Better than 25 years ago, when I was working for Mr. B. R. Firestone, we had a grade one winner filly called Gaily Gaily, who was by Cure the Blues out of a mare by a son of Sir Gaylord (and thus combined the genetic relatives very close up in the pedigree).

I also wrote a complete article some time ago about the various combinations of the genetic relatives Stop the Music (sire of Cure the Blues), Sir Ivor (by Sir Gaylord, and the broodmare sire of El Prado, in turn sire of Medaglia d'Oro), Drone (three-parts-brother to the dam of Medaglia d'Oro) and Halo.

It's not terribly surprising, therefore, to see a horse with Sir Ivor through a three-parts-sister to Drone, work with Cure the Blues, especially when bolstered with another cross of Sir Gaylord, and the presence of My Babu and Ambiorix II to with Turn-to.

Of course the fact she is by what is turning out to be a very good sire of fillies, out of a good racemare, can't hurt.

Appreciate your reply, and understand if you're not able to respond again.

I questioned the A++ rating, because you implied that the results of the El Prado on Mr. P-line mares' cross had been less than stellar. One would assume that the data from this cross would form much of the basis for your rating. No doubt your system did indeed grant this an A++, so I am questioning the validity of your "system". How else is one able to approach this, since none are privy to the intracacies of said system? We are asked to accept it as a predictive tool at face value. We are aware that it is derived from past data, but its potential validity lies in its future predictive results (still to be seen).

As to R. A.: Your reply was somewhat interesting, and I could debate the relevance of the examples offered. For now, I'll again posit that it's rather more logical (genetically) to conclude that my scenario is the more likely one here. You seem to be rather wedded to your prevailing line of reasoning.          

Sceptre: first, vive la difference, which is what makes this game somewhat interesting.

El Prado/Mr. Prospector produced a lot of stakes winners (around 13 or 14 I think, from memory), but wasn't exceptional in percentage of stakes winners relative to starters, compared with either El Prado's success with other sire lines, or the Mr. Prospector that were bred to El Prado, when they were bred to all other mares.

Medaglia d'Oro, however, at the moment has a very good strike rate with Mr. Prospector line mares, and has two stakes winners from two starters out of mares by Roar.

As far as Rachel Alexandra's - obviously phenomenal - ability and it's source, we can't prove any hypothesis. She's probably of comparable talent to her sire, and an upgrade on her dam. That's something that applies to a very small percentage of horses, even those with talented parents. Somewhere on a line of odds from around 5-1 (A.P. Indy with a compatible high-class mare) to several thousand to one, any two horses might produce a graded winner - the quality of the gene pool isn't much different between any of them four or five generations back.

From long, long observance of pedigrees, however, it does seem that good horses tend to have patterns involving genetic relatives. The Sir Ivor/Drone/Sir Gaylord/Cure the Blues one is one you would expect to work - something very similar happened with Golden Missile over an El Prado mare (we had predicted AP Indy/El Prado as a cross).

So, I would say that the fact that Medaglia d'Oro appears to be a very good sire suggests that a lot of what made him special is concentrated in relatively few haplotypes, rather than scattered through the genotype); that Rachel Alexandra's dam was a well above average performer; and that the pedigree has several interesting hook ups in the background, not least of which is Sir Gaylord/Cure the Blues (with the other relationships surrounding it), all played their part.

By the way, your pen name reminds me of the motto of Robert Standish Sevier's paper after he had been forced to sell Sceptre "I have no Sceptre, but I have a pen" --- I guess these days he'd have been a  blogger!

Several recent posts inspire us to take a quick look at some similarities -- perhaps coincidental -- between the pedigrees of Birdstone, Medaglia d'Oro, and Kentucky Derby Presented by Yum! Brands (gr. I) third Musket Man.

Susan: I don't think it's bad. It's an A TrueNicks, and you get one or two interesting things, including a Northern Dancer/Sir Ivor cross through Curlin's dam and El Prado, which is good with the Cure the Blues and second cross of Sir Gaylord in the mare. Curlin and Roar (sire of the dam of the mare) are both Mr. Prospector/Northern Dancer.

I actually like the A.P. Indy line with her.