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I wonder if Dunkirk would still have brought $3.5 Million...if he was advertised by True Nicks as a "D" rating???

Good questions Chris...I wonder if Mine That Bird would have made more at the Fasig Tipton October Sale if his A+ TrueNicks rating was published also.

Dunkirk is an interesting horse. Like another Unbridled's Song colt in First Defence (bred on the same cross) it is probably a case where the quality of the parents used overcomes an apparent lack of genetic affinity.

We have always maintained that TrueNicks is to be used as a guide, not an absolute and to be honest any program/system that says otherwise is leading you astray. It is an accurate program (we are yet to find a program that has undergone or will undergo the statistical scrutiny that TrueNicks was subject to in its development) but it does require some "intelligent interpretation". Alan and I have each recommended matings where the Truenicks score is as low as a C but there were other parts of the pedigree that we liked, the physical aspects of the mating suited (very important), and these matings have resulted in stakes winners. There is no absolutes in this game but intelligently using TrueNicks will help you enormously.

Byron

i had a little fun just looking through the names and imagining what i would name them hehe.

I noticed that many of the top Stakes winners today ( for example Sea the Stars and Presious Passion) have TrueNicks ratings of C or D. I would be worried that people might miss a wonderful horse if they were to use this rating as a key factor 1) when deciding who to breed their mares to, or 2) in this case, which yearling to purchase as a racing prospect.

• Editor's note:  AnneM, thanks for your comments.  The C rating for Sea The Stars (IRE) is based on the Cape Cross (IRE)/Mr. Prospector cross.  Note that the TrueNicks report also shows the five best horses on the cross to help breeders/buyers in their evaluation -- for this example, we show that the five best horses also include a group II winner, a group III winner, and two listed stakes winners.  However, TrueNicks calculations are based on how well the AVERAGE result of a cross fares... in the case of Cape Cross/Mr. Prospector, the overall cross has not performed significantly better than the average for the breed.  Sea The Stars is the only group/grade I winner after many attempts and he is out of a wonderful producer and racemare so the quality of the ancestors may be overcoming a lack of genetic affinity. ... As for your other example, Presious Passion rates an A on TrueNicks.
  

This is a cool tool. Does the tool predict sale price and/or projected lifetime earnings? If so, it would provide the real bottom line on whether to buy or not. A good way to determine if the tool is good for you is to make some picks and compare the tools results to your results. I am a novice. So, I bet the tool will help. Here are my thoughts on the TrueNicks picks for Fasig-Tipton July 2009 Sale.

Good call on Hip 71, 285 and 449. These two will prove their ratings by becoming graded stakes winners.

1.Hip No. 285: . ch f Speightstown--Ascot Yael).

2.Hip No. 449: . b f (Lemon Drop Kid--Moonshine Run).

3. Hip No. 71: . dkb/b c (Sharp Humor--Beauty Bug).

While they are not B+ or better rated, I believe all the horses below will earn 5 times or greater thier sale price. It unclear if these lessor TrueNick ratings indicate their earnings would not be this great. And, I feel that 3 of the 10 will be Stakes winners. I take it TrueNicks formula would disagree.

1.Hip No. 1: . dkb/b c (Forest Danger--Saint Believe It

2.Hip No. 10: . ch c (Afleet Alex--Shirley Booth).

3. Hip No. 29: . b c (Henny Hughes--Tacticmove).

4. Hip No. 42: . gr/ro c (Rockport Harbor--Unchained Princess).

5. Hip No. 70: . ch c (Eddington--Bates Choice).

6. Hip No. 178: . ch c (Henny Hughes--Mighty Lode).

7. Hip No. 305: . dkb/b c (Awesome Again--Calico Flower).

8. Hip No. 445: . ch c (Songandaprayer--Mizzen Lass).

9. Hip No. 472: . dkb/b c (Speightstown--Personal Glory).

10.Hip No. 490: . ch f (Speightstown--Red Piano

• Editor's note:  Great ideas, Bloom.  "Earnings predictor" sounds interesting!  TrueNicks actually looks only at likelihood for stakes success.  Earnings depends a whole lot on where the horse is raced and how long his career, but the goal of most breeders/owners/trainers is to reach stakes level and is one unifying goal of the sport!
  

I have three choices from this list

First - #22 Aragorn/Stunning Image (Ire)

Second - #229 Harlan's Holiday/Smiling Eyes

Third - #236 Candy Ride/Sun Luck

I believe that Aragorn is going to be a topnotch sire and believe that Harlan's Holiday is a stallion often overlooked and as for Candy Ride he has proven himself well with his first crop and I just love the older breeding on this mare Sun Luck.