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A Juvenile Weekend

There were several stakes for juveniles last weekend and two freshman sires, Kitten’s Joy (who also had the Summer S. (gr. III) runner-up Becky’s Kitten) and Roman Ruler (TrueNicks,SRO) put stakes winners on the board. Kitten’s Joy, who now has 11 first crop winners, was represented by Sunday Silence Stakes winner William’s Kitten who is out of a mare by Menifee. The Sadler’s Wells/Storm Cat cross, which this represents, has been quite useful in general (TrueNicks B+) and Menifee is a Northern Dancer/Never Bend cross, where Sadler’s Wells is a Northern Dancer/Bold Reason (half-brother to Never Bend) cross.

Roman Ruler has had 15 first crop two-year-old winners and his first stakes winner is Seattle Ruler, who took the Barretts Juvenile Stakes. He is out of the A.P. Indy (TrueNicks,SRO) mare, Decades of Style, and Roman Ruler may be following his sire, Fusaichi Pegasus (TrueNicks,SRO), who has three stakes horses out of A.P. Indy mares, including graded winner Ravel.

D’Funnybone retained his position as one of the leaders of the eastern juvenile colts division with a convincing win in the Futurity (gr. II) at Belmont. He’s from the third crop of Vinery Florida’s D'wildcat (TrueNicks,SRO) , a grade I-winning sprinter by Forest Wildcat (also responsible for current #2 freshman sire, Wildcat Heir (TrueNicks,SRO) , and South African star, Zar). D’Funnybone – who is TrueNicks rated A – is out the Woodman mare Elbow.

Runner-up in the Futurity was Discreetly Mine, a son of Mineshaft (TrueNicks,SRO) out of Pretty Discreet by Private Account, and a half-brother to Discreet Cat (TrueNicks,SRO) . The family did get a major weekend stakes, however, as the Matron Stakes (gr. II) went to Awesome Maria (TrueNicks A+), who is by Maria’s Mon out of Discreetly Mine’s Awesome Again (TrueNicks,SRO) half-sister, Discreetly Awesome.

There was also a pair of two-year-old graded stakes in Canada, both on turf. The Natalma Stakes (gr. III) went to Bay to Bay (TrueNicks A++), who is bred to run all day as she is from the third crop of the Hollywood Turf Cup (gr. I) winner Sligo Bay (IRE) (TrueNicks,SRO) out of Bala (who finished third in the Natalma herself), a daughter of With Approval.

The Speightstown (TrueNicks,SRO) two-year-old, Bridgetown (TrueNicks A++) impressed in the Summer Stakes (gr. III). Bridgetown is out of the Tabasco Cat mare, Ellesmere, and so is inbred to Speightown’s broodmare sire, Storm Cat.

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Have I mentioned lately that True Nicks are pointless?  How is the A.P. Indy/ Mr. Prospector cross a B+?  Justify yourselves please.

Nick 25 Sep 2009 3:22 PM


The reason that A.P. Indy/Mr. Prospector (the direct cross of A.P. Indy himself over mares by Mr. Prospector) comes out as a B+ is that A.P. Indy has covered a lot of very good Mr. Prospector mares.

He has 89 starters and 18 black-type stakes winners on the cross (20% stakes winners to starters). He's had 660 starters and 103 stakes winners out of mares by all other stallions (15.6%). So he's done about 1.29 times as well with Mr. Prospector mares as he has with all other mares. This is a significant improvement considering that he is a very good sire, but doesn't indicate an overwhelming preference.

The specific Mr. Prospector mares that have been bred to A.P. Indy have produced around 8.2% stakes winners by all other stallions, so he is doing 1.83 times as well as might be expect with them.

Combine the two figures, and A.P. Indy does 2.36 times as well with the Mr. Prospector mares that have been bred to him as one would expect if there was no preference.

The 2.36 comes out to a B+ (and at the high end of that scale). Since we recommend paying particular attention to ratings of B+ or above, and since the TrueNicks page shows that the cross has produced four grade one winners, the TrueNicks rating would provide a strong endorsement for breeding a Mr. Prospector mare to A.P. Indy (leaving aside the age factors that would now be a consideration).

Alan Porter 28 Sep 2009 9:04 AM

Hello from Greek Islands...The only book I brought with me is John Sparkman's book Foundation Mares.  It is an excellent book and a must read for anyone interested in breeding.  Alan - have you ever considered creating True nicks based on the dominate female lines?  When reading through the 450+ pages it is obvious to readers that some families cross extremely well with certain families.  I would be game to help tackle a project of this nature.      

Ryan 29 Sep 2009 6:37 AM

Hi Ryan,

We are continually looking at developing other products. There is no doubt that there are some family/family combinations that work well.

The main difficulties would be in reducing it to something that is quantifiable and objectively measurable (and then is proven to have a positive correlation with success at a specific level), and also to program something that can be analyzed without too much processing.

We'd certainly be interested in any ideas on the subject though. Anything that helps breeders make more informed decisions that are based on quantifiable and objective measures are worth considering.

Alan Porter 29 Sep 2009 12:11 PM

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