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TrueNicks Reports Available for Kentucky Derby and Oaks Fields

TrueNicks is offering complimentary reports for this year's Derby field. While just 13% of the Thoroughbred foal population rate A or better, an impressive 13 of the 20 Kentucky Derby entrants are TrueNicks rated A++.

Juvenile champion Lookin At Lucky is the 3-1 morning line favorite for the 136th Run for the Roses. The son of Smart Strike (TrueNicks,SRO) will break from the rail. Santa Anita Derby (gr. I) winner Sidney's Candy, by Candy Ride (ARG) (TrueNicks,SRO), drew post position No. 20 and is the 5-1 second choice.

Click here to view complimentary TrueNicks reports for Kentucky Derby entrants.

Blind Luck, a daughter of Pollard's Vision, is the 6-5 morning line choice for Friday's 136th Kentucky Oaks (gr. I). Winner of the Fantasy Stakes (gr. II) last out, Blind Luck drew post No. 5.

Click here to view complimentary TrueNicks reports for Kentucky Oaks entrants.

1 Comment:

I would like to now how a truenick can go from an A to D on the same breeding in just one year; on established stallions.

  • Ian's reply:  Hi Pat, thanks for the inquiry. In general TrueNicks ratings are stable over time and require a series of significant events to move an "A" to a "D" or vice versa. The most likely scenario for what you describe is this: Take, for example, Oaks entrant Age of Humor (TrueNicks rated "A"). She is by Distorted Humor out of a Silver Deputy mare, but her TrueNicks rating is based on the Distorted Humor/Deputy Minister cross as there have not yet been either 15 starters or 2 stakes winners by Distorted Humor out of Silver Deputy mares. To make the rating more useful and statistically significant, TrueNicks rates how Distorted Humor has done with mares by Deputy Minister and his sons (including Silver Deputy). Eventually, however, once Distorted Humor has 15 starters or 2 stakes winners out of Silver Deputy mares, the TrueNicks algorithm will automatically look at this new, more specific cross. When a specific cross "branches off" from its parent cross, it often returns a similar rating, but it's certainly possible that it could behave differently. Theoretically, we could find that Distorted Humor does either better or worse with Silver Deputy mares relative to opportunity. In such a case, the new cross would rate higher or lower than the parent cross.
  • Pat 29 Apr 2010 7:50 PM

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