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Really great stuff, Scot, and Alan's points are well taken. This type of analysis, while important, is voiced too infrequently. It points out a need for humility when pondering potential matings...No easy answers for this one-the significance of Lalun's contribution to the successful Sadler's Wells-Mill Reef nick. I'll contribute a few more thoughts:

I always viewed Sadler's Wells' Lalun contribution with some skepticism. Bold Reason was a fairly good racehorse, but a poor sire. He would appear to be one of the weaker influences in Sadler's Wells' pedigree. His dam, Fairy Bridge (Bold Reason-Special) was a quite talented runner. Most then (and in retrospect) would have attributed the lion's share of Fairy Bridge's racing talent to Special and to her family. Nureyev, for one, adds more evidence to this belief. Also, since Bold Reason was a poor sire, it seems more likely that his brand of Lalun was less than exceptional. None of this, however, is said with much certainty. Had Bold Reason also been a mediocre runner the argument would seem somewhat stronger. Even this portion of the analysis is far more complex than space allows here. For one, there is the issue of both Sadler's Wells' and Mill Reef's possession of very positive Lalun alleles vs together their "forming" a fortuitous gene complex (ex.-that may have worked so well for the top racemare Lalun herself---we can't forget that Lalun was both a very talented racehorse, and a superior producer). This is just an example...Scot does raise a worthy point about the Lady Josephine linebreeding. *Forli, who was inbred to Lady Juror, did certainly excell with Bold Ruler-*Nasrullah-so *Nasrullah's "brand" of Lady Josephine seemed to compliment well Forli's "brand" of this mare. I'm less taken with the like-to-like theory. For me, Mill Reef and Sadler's Wells were not too similar conformationally. I did see Mill Reef close up (got a good look at him at the '71 Arc), and have seen countless photos of Sadler's Wells. Mill Reef was far more refined and compact. I also doubt that conformational nicks make it beyond one generation...Yes, the Sadler's Wells-Mill Reef nick could be caused by several factors. Or, the Lalun inbreeding/linebreeding could be the major contributor. A very careful and thorough analysis might point to the more likely answer. I believe, though, that even with use of the most sophisticated programs/mathematics, etc., we would still be left with much uncertainty.

There is an Austrlaian horse nearing champ status (certainly a 2yo champ) called Pierro who has Lalun all over him 5 or 6 generations back on the female side and once on the sire side (he's by Octagonal). Any comments on the Lalun influence, if any?