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Talkin' 'Bout Shaft

Dada, dada, dadaa, da, da, daa….Who's the horse with hot three-year-old crop? Shaft! Mine Shaft!. With due apologies to the late Isaac Hayes, we think there are plenty of reasons to be "talkin' 'bout" Mineshaft (TrueNicks,SRO), who missed an historic double at Saratoga on Saturday by about an inch.

The only Horse of the Year by A.P. Indy (TrueNicks,SRO); bred on the same cross as Pulpit (TrueNicks,SRO) and Malibu Moon (TrueNicks,SRO); and from a great family, Mineshaft looked to have all the goods when he retired to stud. However, when his first crop (foals of 2005) did not initally come up to expectations, he quickly fell from fashion. He actually started rebuilding his reputation rather quickly – we’ve been touting him as a good value proposition for some time – and in reverse of the normal order of events, one could argue that each of his first three crops has been better than the last.

The first crop, now five, has produced four stakes winners, including grade II winners Cool Coal Man, Casino Drive (who might well have won the 2008 Belmont Stakes (gr. I) but for an injury prior to the race), and grade III winner Coal Play. The second crop did better numerically, with seven stakes winners, including graded winner Redding Colliery. It's the third crop, now three, that has really been writing the headlines. This crop is headed by Discreetly Mine, who has established himself as the best three-year-old sprinter in the country with three straight wins, the most recent in Saturday’s King’s Bishop Stakes (gr. I), and Fly Down, who won the Dwyer Stakes (gr. II) and finished second in the Belmont Stakes (gr. I) earlier in the year, and who missed giving his sire a remarkable Saratoga double by about a nostril in the Travers Stakes (gr. I).

Mineshaft is out of a mare by Mr. Prospector, and so one of the first questions one is bound ask is how has he done with Mr. Prospector inbreeding. Despite the paranoia in some quarters about this pattern, for Mineshaft it has done just fine. From 31 starters out of mares by sons and grandsons of Mr. Prospector line mares, he has four stakes winners (Cool Coal Man out of a mare by Rubiano; Platinum out of a mare by Rubiano’s sire, Fappiano; Mineralolgist, out of a mare by Seeking the Gold; and Strut the Canary, out of a mare by Seeking the Gold’s son Petionville (TrueNicks,SRO)). Incidentally, graded-placed Miner’s Reward, who lead the Travers to the 3/16 pole, but came out with a foot bruise, is out of a mare by Forty Niner (similar Mr. Prospector/Tom Rolfe cross to the dam of Mineshaft). Overall, Mineshaft he has nine stakes winners from only 56 starters with Mr. Prospector inbreeding (16% stakes winners to starters, compared to 5.6% stakes winners to runners for the sire overall). Oh, and it doesn’t seem to compromise their stamina either, since Fly Down, who has Mr. Prospector 3 x 3 has a second in the Belmont at 1½ miles, and would have won the 1¼ Travers Stakes in another stride or two.

Funnily enough, the far more outcrossed Discreetly Mine, who we would have expected to get the Belmont Stakes trip, has been a revelation since dropping back to sprints. He’s out of a mare by Private Account, with a second dam by Believe It, a third dam by Tom Rolfe, and a fourth dam by Northern Dancer (Private Account and Northern Dancer won over ten furlongs; Believe It at nine furlongs; and Tom Rolfe, at 9½ furlongs), so how he turned out to be a sprint star is a little bit of a mystery at this stage. His closest inbreeding or line breeding is a 5 x 4 x 5 cross of Buckpasser, and a 5 x 4 cross of Tom Rolfe.

Discreetly Mine is out of a mare by a son of Damascus, and Fly Down, who ranks as his sire’s second best son, is out of a mare by a grandson of Damascus. Fly Down’s maternal grandsire, Fly So Free, is by Time For A Change. Fly So Free’s dam is by a son of Nashua out of a mare by Native Dancer, and so Fly Down has a double of Mr. Prospector (Native Dancer/Nashua) with a horse bred on a reverse cross.

Mineshaft has been less impressive with Northern Dancer line mares, but does have three stakes winners from 53 starters by sons and grandsons of Northern Dancer (5.6% stakes winners to starters). The black type-winning trio comprise graded scorers Casino Drive (out of the famous Better Than Honour, by Deputy Minister) and Redding Colliery (dam by Zilzal, a son of Nureyev), and the grade I-placed Bonnie Blue Flag (another sprinter) out of a mare by Dixieland Band (also inbred 3 x 4 to Mr. Prospector, and with a third dam by Damascus, who is in three of Mineshaft’s grade I performers.

Mineshaft appears well-suited to mares from the Roberto branch of Hail to Reason, siring graded winner Coal Play and Kiss Mine, from mares by Kris S., and La Mina, whose dam by is Red Ransom). He also has stakes winner Bottega, whose dam is by Sunday Silence, from the Halo branch of Hail to Reason.

Mineshaft’s other stakes winners are Rock Candy (out of a mare by Pleasant Colony); Platinum Girl (out of a mare by Kennedy Road, who is by Victoria Park, from the Chop Chop/Flares line out of a Nearctic mare, and something of a reverse cross to horses like Vice Regent, The Minstrel and Storm Bird); Miner’s Escape (out of a mare by Broad Brush, who gives a double of Hoist the Flag, combined with Ack Ack, who is from the immediate family of Hoist the Flag’s sire, Tom Rolfe); and A. U. Miner (by The Watcher, a grandson of Buckpasser, from the same La Troienne family as Buckpasser, and Mineshaft himself). Buckpasser is in the fifth generation of Mineshaft, and reintroducing Buckpasser with four generations on the distaff side of the pedigree has proved beneficial, with three stakes winners from 22 starters (better than 13%). We can see that Seeking the Gold, Miswaki, and Woodman, all Mr. Prospector/Buckpasser crosses, all appear in Mineshaft stakes winners. It might also be worth keeping an eye out for mares by Easy Goer, a Raise a Native/Buckpasser cross, out of a three-parts-sister to The Watcher, who we mentioned above as broodmare sire of a Mineshaft stakes winner.

Mineshaft might have to work through a quieter year or two, with crops where breeders were fighting shy of him, but he’s shown that he can get a talented runner, and at very least he's an interesting proposition for an owner-breeder who wants a shot at a classic-type runner.

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8 Comments:

I am seriously thinking about sending my clients Fly So Free mare to Mineshaft next spring.  Fly Down dispelled any issue of stamina, and the mare we have is loaded with stamina on her bottom side.  Excellent article as usual.

Robert 31 Aug 2010 12:43 PM

So I'm not the only one who is confused over a grandson of AP Indy is a top sprinter!?!

DawnStorm 31 Aug 2010 5:34 PM

The creaming off of many of our better broodmares and broodmare prospects over the years, coupled with the demise of most of the elite breeders-racers, has weakened the US thoroughbed racing breed. To compensate, partially, we should endeavor to send our better broodmares (and broodmare prospects) to the best stallions here available. Potentially wasting too many of these broodmares to unproven stallions, or those of questionable siring performance, would seem counterproductive to the goal. Mineshaft, for one, initially received too many high quality mares. Had same mares been instead bred to proven stallions (of similar fee) it's rather likely our gene pool would have been better off. Now a few of his offsping (which, for the most part, are out of superior mares) are raising a few eyebrows. Some will now mistakenly embark on phase two of this road to mediocrity.  

sceptre 31 Aug 2010 9:23 PM

sceptre,

You make a great point, but... (unfortunately) every stallion is unproven until he's proven. Some mares will have to go to unproven stallions; the quality of those mares is really up to the breeders.

In the case of Mineshaft, he's now one of the best values in Kentucky, and I wouldn't fault him for succeeding with good mares. With his change in fee, the profile of mare that he's getting will also change, and this may actually suit him better than the profile of mares he got in his initial books.

Ian

Ian Tapp 01 Sep 2010 12:47 PM

Ian, my friend,

I worded my earlier post in such a way as to be non-confrontational, fearing it would not be published if otherwise. Yes, certainly, every stallion is unproven until later proven, and to be proven requires mates. It's also true that choice of matings is solely in the hands of individual breeders. These breeders, however, can often be swayed by the printed word-case in point: this article on Mineshaft. To say that "he's now one of the best values in Kentucky..." is begging the question as it relates to my earlier post. I don't grant that he's a "best value". Also, you may not fault him for succeeding occasionally with good mares, but I'd guess you'd think more of him if those successes were the produce of lesser quality mares. Incidentally, a look at the 2010 Keeneland Sept. Sale will demonstrate that he continued to receive high quality mares...You seem to be saying (to appease me)-Don't worry, since his fee was reduced he'll now have less opportunity to "waste" the quality mares. To be a bit more confrontational, I'm suggesting that this article's positive spin on Mineshaft might sway some to offer him better mares than he truly deserves...Lastly, I've never much bought the argument that some stallions can achieve more with a lesser rather than better quality book.    

sceptre 01 Sep 2010 3:04 PM

sceptre,

Regarding your last point first: I agree with you, but "quality" is a very subjective term. I'm saying the "profile" of mare could be different at the lower fee. I know that's vague, but you can see where variables such as racing performance vs. pedigree; average winning distance and aptitudes; etc., could change with the fee, and such a change might suit the stallion differently than the group bred at a higher fee.

Also, I wasn't implying that any mares were being "wasted" (you were saying that). I'm saying that at a lower fee, Mineshaft might get more racy mares that go to him because of their own ability, rather than just the strength of their page. One quick example is Secretariat. Would Ribbon (dam of Risen Star) have gone to him in his first few seasons? Unlikely.

On the broader point, take Discreetly Mine. Out of an awesome producer and race mare, yes. But what a success that mating is. The mating succeeded in producing a top-class racehorse, brilliantly fast and talented, and now a G1 winner. What else could you ask for? Mating her to Mineshaft worked. It's easy to say "she could have produced an equally good horse with another stallion"--maybe. She did it with Forestry, and now Mineshaft, but give credit to the stallion, too.

Take Fly Down--his dam produced a good G2w/G1p filly by Chief Seattle, then with Mineshaft (same sire line) she produced an even better G2w/G1p in Fly Down.

Ian

Ian Tapp 01 Sep 2010 4:09 PM

Ian,

I take your points, and they have merit. Re-Mineshaft, I had considered what you now offered before submitting my first post. Mineshaft has sired some good ones (and of them, some not out of blue chip mares) so I don't consider him to be total dud. But, history tells us that even near duds can sire the occasional top horse, especially when offered top mares. Discreetly Mine is a very talented sprinter and it's possible that Mineshaft (and, for that matter, Forestry) suited Pretty Discreet better than stallions of far superior siring ability-similar has occurred before. Actually, to my mind, Mineshaft and Forestry have other obvious commonalities. Both received quality books well above what they deserved retrospectively. Forestry sired Discreet Cat who was probably an even more talented runner than Discreetly Mine, yet this horse, and a few other good ones weren't harbingers of later stallion success (nor was Chief Seattle's G-II SW. Had Chief Seattle continued to sire G-II SW's in abundance he would not have been banished to NY). I'm confident that same will hold true for Mineshaft-in view of his TOTAL record to date. IMO the Forestrys and Mineshafts of this world do not deserve high quality mares...The anecdote of Ribbon would carry more weight had Secretariat finally succeeded later in his career-but he didn't. At a time when we (the US) had collectively far more and better elite broodmares, Secretariat did probably far more damage to our gene pool than any other stallion (broodmare sire of A P Indy, Gone West, etc. notwithstanding). I know, easy for me to say and difficult to prove, but is said with care and conviction. Lastly, the stallion data is there for all to see and analyze. Problem is, far too many prefer to conclude through reading a synopsis such as that given in "Talkin''Bout Shaft". Not trying to win my point, but would like to offer to all a differing perspective. There's a lot more that could be said about all this, not least is the issue of journalistic motivation.          

sceptre 01 Sep 2010 6:38 PM

sceptre,

Good comments, and a very interesting point regarding Secretariat. If we could remove the commercial factor from breeding, and elect a breeding czar, perhaps such stockpiling on unproven stallions would be avoided?

Ian

Ian Tapp 02 Sep 2010 9:51 AM

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