BC Juvenile Fillies Preview
Written by Ian Tapp | Nov 03, 2010 |
Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies (gr. I) ∙ $2,000,000 ∙ 1 1/16 miles, dirt
Race 8, Friday, 6:10 PM
||R Heat Lightning
||Awesome of Course
||A Z Warrior
||Believe in A. P.
||Tell a Kelly
||Fly So Free
1 - Indian Gracey
Indian Gracey is from the second crop of Stormy Atlantic (TrueNicks,SRO)
stallion Indian Ocean, winner of the 2005 Affirmed Handicap (gr. III). Out of an unraced Matty G (TrueNicks,SRO) mare, there are nine stakes horses under the first two dams, and all are fillies, including grade II-winning sprinter Warbling. There are two stakes winners from 46 starters on the cross of Stormy Atlantic and sons with Seattle Slew line mares, yielding a TrueNicks rating of D. With an average winning distance of 6.33 furlongs, the cross and female family indicate that Indian Gracey is likely a sprinter, although she was able to hang tough when third in the Oak Leaf (gr. I) after being left alone on the lead.
2 - Theyskens' Theory
Theyskens' Theory is a Bernardini (TrueNicks,SRO) half sister to BC Juvenile winner Stevie Wonderboy (TrueNicks,SRO). While she is a group III winner and group I-placed on turf in England, no one could argue with the decision to try the Juvenile Fillies given her half brother won the male equivalent, and her sire was a gallant second over the Churchill dirt in the BC Classic. The dam is the Summer Squall mare Heat Lightning (no relation to fellow Juvenile Fillies starter R Heat Lightning). Bernardini rates A++ with Northern Dancer line mares, and the cross includes group I winner Biondetti and grade I-placed Stay Thirsty—both entrants in the BC Juvenile. Most intriguing about Theyskens' Theory's pedigree is that grandsire A.P. Indy (TrueNicks,SRO) and broodmare sire Summer Squall are out of Weekend Surprise, the same element found with Stevie Wonderboy.
3 - R Heat Lightning
The aforementioned R Heat Lightning is a daughter of grade I-winning sprinter Trippi from the Gold Fever mare Yellow Heat. The mating creates an interesting Forty Niner/Forty Niner cross, as that sire appears in the third generation of both sire and broodmare sire lines. There are 26 starters on this cross, and R Heat Lightning became its first stakes winner when she dominated the grade I Spinaway. A good second to A Z Warrior in the Frizette, R Heat Lighning is likely best suited to sprinting, but her ability to sit off the pace may help her cause on Friday.
4 - Awesome Feather
The undefeated Awesome Feather is a daughter of Awesome of Course, an Awesome Again (TrueNicks,SRO) stallion now standing in Oklahoma. The dam is Gone West mare Precious Feather, predominately a sprinter but winner of a stakes race at 8.5 furlongs. The second dam placed in the Epsom Oaks (gr. I), and third dam, the Princequillo mare Quill, produced Irish St. Leger (gr. I) winner Caucasus and Pan American winner One For All. Needless to say, there's plenty of stamina in the family. Of 95 starters by Deputy Minister line stallions with Gone West mares, there are six stakes winners, amounting to a better-than-average TrueNicks rating of B.
5 - Harlan's Ruby
Harlan's Holiday (TrueNicks,SRO) daughter Harlan's Ruby exited a Saratoga maiden win to close into a slow pace to be second in the Alcibiades (gr. I) at Keeneland. Out of full sister to graded stakes-winning sprinter Popular, there is but one stakes winner from 27 starters by Harlan and sons out of Halo line mares, hence the D rating. However, Harlan's Ruby is one of two grade I-placed fillies on the cross, with the other being A to the Croft—also second in the Alcibiades, and also trained by Ken McPeek. A to the Croft finished ninth in the 2007 BC Juvenile Fillies.
6 - Joyful Victory
One of two Tapit (TrueNicks,SRO) fillies in the race, $400,000 Fasig-Tipton Calder two-year-old purchase Joyful Victory is out of the Wild Again mare Wild Lucy Black. The second dam is a half sister to champion two-year-old colt Roving Boy. Pulpit (TrueNicks,SRO) and sons rate A++ with Wild Again mares, thanks mostly to half siblings Pyro and War Echo. A well-beaten third in the Frizette when a bit green in the stretch (it was her second career outing), Joyful Victory will need to overcome inexperience in the Juvenile Fillies.
7 - Izshelegal
Maria's Mon filly Izshelegal is a maiden in four starts, but was a close third behind eventual grade I winners Wickedly Perfect and A Z Warrior in the Sorrento (gr. III). Out of an A.P. Indy mare, this is the familiar A++ cross of Kentucky Derby winner Super Saver (TrueNicks) and champion three-year-old filly Wait A While. While all the right ingredients are there, the pedigree and race record indicate that Izshelegal is one to watch for next year.
8 - A Z Warrior
A second Bernardini (TrueNicks,SRO) filly in the field, A Z Warrior looked impressive in her first dirt start when taking the grade I Frizette. A half sister to stakes winners J Z Warrior and E Z Warrior (TrueNicks,SRO), A Z Warrior is bred on the same A.P. Indy/Carson City cross as grade I winner Rail Trip. Of 57 starters by A.P. Indy and sons from Carson City mares, however, A Z Warrior and Rail Trip are the only two stakes winners. Consequently, the cross is rated D as it has underperformed given its opportunity. There are another six stakes-placed horses on the cross, making this a rather attractive D rating, though not a mating to attempt without other compelling reasons.
9 - Delightful Mary
Limehouse (TrueNicks,SRO) filly Delightful Mary was a $500,000 OBS April two-year-old. Living up to billing, she romped in her first two starts before failing to run down Wyomia in the grade III Mazarine, with all starts coming on the Woodbine poly. Produced from the French Deputy mare Deputy's Delight, the filly is a half sister to millionaire Delightful Kiss. With only 13 starters on the cross of Gone West line stallions with French Deputy mares, there are three stakes winners, including grade I-winning sprinter Visionaire (TrueNicks,SRO). The cross has seen its best performance on dirt, so Delightful Mary certainly stands to appreciate Friday's footing.
10 - Believe in A. P.
A.P. Indy (TrueNicks,SRO) has already sired a BC Juvenile Fillies winner in Tempera, and Believe in A. P. enters as this year's hope. Out of Hollywood Starlet (gr. I) winner I Believe in You, by Pleasant Tap, Believe in A. P. thrashed a maiden field by more than 12 lengths going a mile and 70 yards in her fourth start. Trainer Richard Dutrow, Jr., said he was dying to get her going long on the dirt, and she did not disappoint. The cross agrees with the trainer's feelings—there are eight winners from 10 starters on dirt, and the average winning distance is a strong 7.62 furlongs. This A++ cross of Seattle Slew line stallions with Pleasant Tap mares includes grade II winner Shaniko (TrueNicks,SRO)
and BC Classic contender Pleasant Prince. From a pedigree perspective, Believe in A. P. is more of a three-year-old prospect.
11 - Soundwave
Friends Lake (TrueNicks,SRO) filly Soundwave has won her last three starts sprinting at Delaware and Monmouth, and enters off a five-length score in the six-furlong NATC Futurity. Out of the Eastern Echo mare Echo Echo Echo, Soundwave is a half sister to the speedy Letgomyecho, winner of the grade II Forward Gal. Seattle Slew line stallions rate A with Eastern Echo mares, but the 25 starters on the cross have an average winning distance of only 6.82 furlongs. It appears that Soundwave is also more inclined to sprinting.
12 - Tell a Kelly
The second Tapit (TrueNicks,SRO) filly is Tell a Kelly, who will aim to become the second champion filly for that sire following the exciting Stardom Bound. Winner of the Darley Debutante (gr. I) and a close second in the Oak Leaf (gr. I), Tell a Kelly is one of several fillies in the field making her first dirt start in the Breeders' Cup. Produced from the Tabasco Cat mare Evrobi, Tell a Kelly is the second grade I winner on the cross of Tapit and Storm Cat line mares, the other being Alabama winner Careless Jewel. The A++ cross has seen six dirt starters for five winners and two stakes winners.
13 - Jordy Y
Jordy Y is by hot first crop sire Congrats (TrueNicks,SRO), sire of Alcibiades (gr. I) winner Wickedly Perfect and grade I-placed I'm Steppin' Up. Jordy Y was second in the Arlington-Washington Lassie (gr. III) and third in the Alcibiades. She is out of a half sister to talented sprinter Alke. The broodmare sire is BC Juvenile winner Fly So Free, so the mating represents the A++ cross of Seattle Slew line stallions with Fly So Free mares. Among four stakes winners on this cross from 23 starters is Fly Down, a BC Classic contender. Jordy Y should also appreciate her first start on dirt, as all four stakes winners on the cross have come on that surface.