BC Filly & Mare Turf Preview
Written by Ian Tapp | Nov 04, 2010 |
Breeders' Cup Filly & Mare Turf (gr. I) ∙ $2,000,000 ∙ 1 3/8 miles, turf
Race 9, Friday, 6:50 PM
||Eclair de Lune (GER)
||Marchand de Sable
||Miss Keller (IRE)
||Hot Cha Cha
||Red Desire (JPN)
||Belong to Me
1 - Plumania (GB)
Plumania is bred similarly to top mare Goldikova, both being by Anabaa with Blushing Groom and Lyphard underneath. You'll have to forgive her non-effort in the Arc, but she appears ideally suited to 10-12 furlongs in this company. Less than a length from Midday in the group I Prix Vermeille two starts back, Plumania will be cutting back to 11 furlongs in the Breeders' Cup, and will find firmer ground—two factors certainly in her favor. The cross of Anabaa with Blushing Groom mares rates A+, with two stakes winners and another two stakes-placed from only 10 starters, and the average winning distance is an appropriate 10.75 furlongs. Also consider that Plumania's dam is a full sister to French highweight Groom Dancer, a group I winner at 10.5 furlongs.
2 - Elair de Lune (GER)
German-bred Eclair de Lune enters off her Beverly D (gr. I) score in August. By the Theatrical stallion Marchand de Sable, Eclair de Lune comes from an older German family, but you have to go to the third dam to find the bulk of the black type performers. Out of a mare by staying influence Acatenango, there are 31 starters by Nureyev line stallions from such mares, and family members Eclair de Lune and Swedish stakes winner Aneebee are the only two stakes winners. Eclair de Lune is already a stakes winner at 9.5 and 10.5 furlongs, and on pedigree the 11-furlong Filly & Mare Turf should be within her grasp if she's good enough.
3 - Miss Keller (IRE)
By top Irish stallion Montjeu, Miss Keller is from a solid family of primarily milers, including good miler and sire Inchinor. Montjeu has certainly imparted more stamina to the mating, and Miss Keller is a grade II winner at nine furlongs and grade I-placed in the 10-furlong E. P. Taylor last out. Of 69 starters by Sadler's Wells and sons with Warning mares, there are eight stakes winners, yielding an A+ rating. However, the cross has an average winning distance of only 9.80 furlongs, a statistic that reinforces the appearance that Miss Keller wasn't up to the 10 furlongs last time. It appears that a step up in trip isn't what this filly is looking for.
4 - Keertana
Keertana is a daughter of BC Turf winner Johar (TrueNicks,SRO), and a half sister to 2010 Arlington Oaks (gr. III) winner Snow Top Mountain (by Najran). A winner on Churchill's turf this season, and a winner at the 11-furlong distance two starts back, Keertana is rated A++ based on Johar with Storm Bird line mares. Sire Johar and dam Motokiks are bred on a similar Secretariat/Hail to Reason. As expected, all cross stakes performance has been on the grass, but the average winning distance of 7.79 furlongs indicates that this event is stretching Keertana's range in this company.
5 - Shared Account
Pleasantly Perfect (TrueNicks,SRO)
filly Shared Account had progressive form this season until encountering yielding turf and 10 furlongs in the Flower Bowl (gr. I). She had proven to act on soft in several starts last season, so distance remains a big question mark. The dam is Smart Strike (TrueNicks,SRO) mare Silk n' Sapphire, a half sister to Affirmed Handicap (gr. III) winner Golden Itiz and grade II-winning sprinter Sapphire n' Silk, the dam of nine-furlong type Shaniko (TrueNicks,SRO)
. Pleasantly Perfect rates C with Mr. Prospector line mares, with two stakes winners from 44 starters on the cross. With the average winning distance below a mile, there are distance questions on pedigree as well as form.
6 - Harmonious
Improving with each start is Dynaformer (TrueNicks,SRO) filly Harmonious, a two-time grade I-winning three-year-old. Her dam is a Storm Cat half sister to good grade I turf performer Jade Queen, both being out of 8.5-furlong Rare Perfume (gr. II) winner Jade Flush. This is the family of Secretariat Stakes (gr. I) winner Startac, and the presence of Dynaformer as sire will only improve Harmonious' chances of staying the additional furlong on Friday. The cross of Dynaformer with Storm Cat mares has four stakes winners from 32 starters, rating TrueNicks B+.
7 - Midday (GB)
Defending champ Midday is favored to repeat in the Filly & Mare Turf. She is by Oasis Dream, out of a Kingmambo (TrueNicks,SRO) mare, from a deep Juddmonte family that includes Irish highweight Elmaamul and successful sires Zafonic and Zamindar. Rated A++ on TrueNicks, Green Desert and sons have had immediate success with Kingmambo mares, and while her ideal distance is slightly below the 11-furlong trip, Midday's class makes her the most likely winner.
8 - Hot Cha Cha
Flying under the radar is Hot Cha Cha, by Hennessy stallion Cactus Ridge (TrueNicks,SRO). Never out of the top three this season while racing between 8 and 9.5 furlongs, Hot Cha Cha is a couple dams removed from top class performers Inside Information, Educated Risk, and Quick As Lightning. Her broodmare sire, Broad Brush, is a noted stamina influence, and while the cross has seen most of its success on dirt, the Hennessy sire line has always been versatile as far as surface is concerned. The Storm Cat line is only average with Broad Brush mares, rating TrueNicks C.
9 - Hibaayeb (GB)
Yellow Ribbon (gr.I) winner Hibaayeb is by the late Singspiel, sire of 2007 BC Filly & Mare Turf winner Lahudood. Out of a mare by Lion Cavern (full brother to Gone West), Hibaayeb is rated A+, as Singspiel has enjoyed continued success with Mr. Prospector line mares, with 15 stakes winners from 90 starters. The cross has a strong average winning distance of 9.22 furlongs, and Hibaayeb won the group II Ribblesdale at 12 furlongs earlier this year. The main problem with the three-year-old Hibaayeb is her inconsistency—a winner in the Yellow Ribbon and Ribblesdale, she flopped in the Yorkshire Oaks, Irish Oaks, and English 1,000 Guineas.
10 - Red Desire (JPN)
Globetrotting Red Desire carries strong form lines into the Filly & Mare Turf. By Japan's leading sire Manhattan Cafe out of a Caerleon mare, Red Desire is from the family of gr. I winners Debussy and Belmez. Manhattan Cafe has succeeded with Caerleon line mares, rating A++ with three stakes winners from 17 starters. Red Desire was a close third in the Flower Bowl (her U.S. debut) despite her first encounter on less-than-firm turf. She was third in last year's Japan Cup (gr. I) to Vodka and beat subsequent Dubai World Cup (gr. I) winner Gloria de Campeao in Dubai, so it appears that she is a major contender in this spot.
11 - Forever Together
Champion Belong to Me (TrueNicks,SRO) filly Forever Together seeks another win in the Filly & Mare Turf, though she is winless since summer of 2009. Out of a Relaunch mare, the cross rates well with an A, and there are four stakes winners from 38 starters by Belong to Me out of In Reality line mares. On the cross, however, Forever Together is in the company of sprinters Jersey Girl and Ebony Breeze, and the average winning distance is an abbreviated 6.87 furlongs. While Forever Together always puts in a solid effort, she may be better off shortening up in distance rather than stretching out at this stage of her career.