BC Juvenile Preview

Breeders' Cup Juvenile (gr. I) ∙ $2,000,000 ∙ 1 1/16 miles, dirt

Race 7, Saturday, 3:55 PM

PP Horse Sire Broodmare Sire TrueNicks Odds
Biondetti Bernardini Lyphard
Boys At Tosconova Officer Coronado's Quest
J. B.'s Thunder Thunder Gulch Unbridled's Song
J P's Gusto Successful Appeal Caller I. D.
Riveting Reason Fusaichi Pegasus Known Fact
Stay Thirsty Bernardini Strorm Bird
Uncle Mo Indian Charlie Arch
Murjan Officer Tabasco Cat
Rogue Romance Smarty Jones Afleet
Jaycito Victory Gallop Ascot Knight

1 - Biondetti

One of two Bernardini (TrueNicks,SRO) colts in this race, Biondetti is undefeated in three outings in Europe, including the one-mile Grand Criterium (gr. I) in Italy. The Juvenile will be Biondetti's first start on dirt, and first over a left-handed course. A May foal, Biondetti is also the youngest colt in the field. Unlike the dirt-bred Bernardini filly Theyskens' Theory, who also attempts the Breeders' Cup in her first start on dirt, Biondetti is very much bred for the turf. Out of the Lyphard mare Lyphard's Delta, Biondetti is a ¾ brother to graded stakes-winning turf fillies Delta Princess and Indy Five Hundred, both by Bernardini's sire A.P. Indy (TrueNicks,SRO).

2 - Boys At Tosconova

Hopeful (gr. I) winner Boys At Tosconova is by outstanding two-year-old Officer (TrueNicks,SRO) out of a Coronado's Quest mare. While Officer didn't stay the Juvenile trip against top company, Boys At Tosconova's range should be augmented by the presence of Coronado's Quest, a Travers (gr. I) winner. Officer has three stakes winners from 16 starters out of Forty Niner line mares, with 10 of 11 winners coming on dirt. Boys At Tosconova will have to overcome a two-month layoff in his first start beyond seven furlongs.

3 - J. B.'s Thunder

Thunder Gulch (TrueNicks,SRO) colt J. B.'s Thunder is two-for-two in his young career, taking a turf maiden en route to a front-running victory in Keeneland's Breeders' Futurity (gr. I). Out of the Unbridled's Song (TrueNicks,SRO) mare Rebridled Dreams, who placed at this distance in the grade II Silverbulletday Stakes, J. B.'s Thunder is a half brother to English stakes-winning sprinter Doncaster Rover (by War Chant). J. B.'s Thunder's Kentucky Derby (gr. I)- and Belmont Stakes (gr. I)-winning sire should improve his chances of handling the dirt and distance, and Thunder Gulch has already sired Tempted Stakes (gr. III, one mile, dirt, 2YO fillies) winner Better Now out of an Unbridled mare.

4 - J P's Gusto

Del Mar Futurity (gr. I) winner J P's Gusto is by Successful Appeal (TrueNicks,SRO) out of a Caller I. D. mare, who was a stakes winner at five furlongs. Successful Appeal won the Withers (gr. II) at one mile, but his best win was probably the six-furlong Vanderbilt (gr. II) at Saratoga. At stud, his progeny average winning distance is 6.68 furlongs, and note that J P's Gusto's full sister Magic Appeal placed in two sprint stakes last year, including the Adirondack (gr. II) at 6.5 furlongs. While he was a good second in the 8.5-furlong Norfolk (gr. I), pedigree indicates that J P's Gusto is best kept sprinting.

5 - Riveting Reason

Maiden Riveting Reason enters off third place finishes in the Norfolk (gr. I) and Del Mar Futurity (gr. I). He is by Kentucky Derby (gr. I) winner Fusaichi Pegasus (TrueNicks,SRO) out of a Known Fact mare. Mr. Prospector line stallions rate a better-than-average B+ with Known Fact mares, getting six stakes winners from 81 starters, with balanced performance on dirt and turf. Riveting Reason is a half brother to a stakes-placed sprinter, and to illustrate how speedy the family is, even his second dam—by distance-oriented Dynaformer (TrueNicks,SRO)—won the Monrovia Handicap (gr. III) at 6.5 furlongs.

6 - Stay Thirsty

The second Bernardini (TrueNicks,SRO) here is Stay Thisty, a popular early choice for next year's Kentucky Derby. He is a half brother to graded stakes winner Andromeda's Hero (TrueNicks), who was second in the Belmont (gr. I), and to stakes winner and Champagne (gr. I)-placed Superfly. Stay Thirsty gave a nice try against Boys At Tosconova when second in the Hopeful (gr. I), clearly at a distance shorter than ideal. The only question with Stay Thirsty on Saturday is maturity, as he clearly has the necessary ingredients to be a classic contender next season.

7 - Uncle Mo

Indian Charlie (TrueNicks,SRO) colt Uncle Mo enters undefeated in two impressive starts, including the one-mile Champagne Stakes (gr. I). Out of an Arch (TrueNicks,SRO) mare, the A++ cross of In Excess and sons with Kris. S. line mares improves the average winning distance of both sire and broodmare sire lines, getting a solid 7.24 furlongs. Furthermore, nine of 10 winners on the cross have won on dirt. It would seem that the Juvenile trip is well within Uncle Mo's range.

8 - Murjan

Peruvian import Murjan is a second Officer (TrueNicks,SRO) colt in the field. He is three-for-three in Peru, where he defeated three-year-olds in the one-mile 2,000 Guineas (Per-I) on the deep dirt track at Monterrico. Murjan is out of a mare by Tabasco Cat, a broodmare sire seen increasingly often in stakes performers these days. The dam was a five-furlong stakes winner at two, so there are valid questions that the colt can get 8.5 furlongs against top company. The cross of Officer with Storm Cat line mares rates well, based on two stakes winners from 14 starters, but Murjan will get a real class test in the Juvenile.

9 - Rogue Romance

Smarty Jones (TrueNicks,SRO) colt Rogue Romance enters off a win the Bourbon Stakes (gr. III) on turf at Keeneland. Out of the Afleet mare Lovington, Rogue Romance is a half brother to Savorthetime (by Gilded Time), a graded stakes-winning sprinter and six-furlong track record holder at Lone Star Park in 1:07.82. Lovington also produced Tizbig, a Tiznow (TrueNicks,SRO) colt who was second in the 9.5-furlong Skip Away Stakes (gr. III), so the stallions have had a lot to do with the aptitudes of Lovington's offspring. Smarty Jones rates an average C with Mr. Prospector line mares, with winners coming on all surfaces for an average winning distance of 7.49 furlongs.

10 - Jaycito

Victory Gallop colt Jaycito came from off the pace to win the Norfolk (gr. I) last time, getting his first career win in the process. Victory Gallop now has two stakes winners from two starters out of Ascot Knight mares. Jaycito's dam, Night Edition, broke her maiden as a three-year-old going 10 furlongs on turf, and she eventually placed in three stakes going 8.5 furlongs on dirt and turf. Jaycito is likely to handle the surface in his first start on conventional dirt, but he will probably need a strong pace in front of him.

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