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What's in Your Mare's Stocking?

I'm sure many of you TrueNicks readers are in the midst of your holiday shopping, looking for the best gifts for the important people in your lives. But what about your broodmares? If you're on the farm with your mare, perhaps she'll get an extra flake of alfalfa and a handful of peppermints. As sweet as this is, the best gift might be the one that assures your mare's best chance of success—the right stallion choice.

Our most popular report (especially this time of year in advance of the breeding season) is the Broodmare Analysis Report. The report is designed to help you narrow down your stallion choices. You pick up to 50 stallions, and the report ranks them by:

  • TrueNicks rating—tells how much better (or worse) the cross's stakes winner strike rate is than average, given the strike rates of sire and broodmare sire lines
  • Broodmare Sire Improvement Index—tells specifically how much the sire improves the stakes winner strike rate of the broodmare sire

The report also includes individual TrueNicks reports with five-cross hypothetical pedigrees for each potential mating.

To help breeders qualify the strength of each cross, the top horses bred on the cross are listed in each TrueNicks report. You may find that an A rated cross has yet to produce a stakes performer at the graded level. Meanwhile, a B+ cross may have produced a graded stakes winner despite the overall strike rate being slightly lower. Such factors necessitate the breeder's intelligent interpretation of the data.

The overall goal of TrueNicks is to help answer the question of "To which stallion is my mare best sent?" We recommend B+ or better ratings in general, though there are certainly instances where lower ratings are eclipsed by other compelling factors, such as physical attributes of sire and dam, pedigree patterns, inbreeding and line breeding, and commercial considerations.

A mating that amounts to a C rating is statistically average. In this case, the mating is expected to produce stakes winners at a rate no greater or less than the averages of sire and broodmare sire. Of course, the C rated mating still might produce an exceptional horse, but statistically your mare is better suited to visiting a stallion that returns a higher rating.

To see the Broodmare Analysis Report in action, here are some examples:

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2 Comments:

I have a question rather than a comment. Is there a numerical percentage associated with each letter rating in terms of percent of stakes horses that can be expected from a prospective mating? For example if a mare mated with stallion X gets a rating of A and the same mare mated with stallion Y gets a rating of A++ and if, hypothetically, the A rating is associated with 10% stakes horses is the A++ rating associated with 15 or 20% stakes horses? If such a numerical association with each letter rating exists would be good to know.  Thanks.

Filippo Santoro 16 Dec 2010 6:56 PM

Filippo,

Good question. The TrueNicks rating/variant score does not have a set stakes % assigned to it; the rating is relevant in the context of the sire and broodmare sire in each mating.

If you knew, for example, that Sire X gets 5% stakes winners, and BroodmareSire Y also gets 5% stakes winners (as a broodmare sire), then you would expect 5% to be par for their combination. If the TrueNicks variant is 1.00 (C rating), which is average, then you could infer that 5% stakes winners is how the cross has performed.

However, if the TrueNicks variant is 2.00 (B rating), which is 2x average, then you could infer that 10% stakes winners is how the cross has performed.

You can see how the strength of the sire or broodmare sire can alter what the expectation of the cross might be. With the same mare, you would expect a lot more from a "C" rated A.P. Indy than you would from an "A" rated cross of a low quality stallion. The "C" is average for A.P. Indy, but certainly above average for the breed.

Hopefully this answers the question. Post again if you have more thoughts.

Thanks,

Ian

Ian Tapp 16 Dec 2010 8:08 PM

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