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Nicking Theory Featured in NY Times

Jim Squires wrote an interesting article that appeared in The New York Times over the weekend. Commenting on the newly-in-foal Rachel Alexandra and Zenyatta, "Breeders Chasing the Superhorse" references nicking theory several times in the piece. While the simplicity of Squires's nicking explanation is a bit misleading as he doesn't touch on the statistical background of TrueNicks, it's certainly nice to get a mention in such an esteemed publication.

Squires points out that TrueNicks is a sire line nicking program. Of course, since stallions have so many more offspring than do mares, sire line nicking is more statistically valid than dam line nicking would be. Furthermore, nicking is just one tool that breeders have at their fingertips, and an educated breeder considers many factors when planning matings, such as female family, produce history, conformation, racing performance, and market conditions—in addition to nicking.

The article's somewhat comical thesis is that racehorse breeding is tantamount to "equine alchemy," a romantic misnomer for something not fully understood. Thankfully, with continued equine genetic research, our industry is rapidly unraveling the mystery of why certain genetic combinations (nicks, for example) succeed more often than others. Stay tuned...

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6 Comments:

Thank you for calling attention to this article

I read the NYT article and enjoyed its emphasis on the female side of the breeding "equation."  This is one of my favorite passages: "...for the first time in memory, public and industry interest has consistently focused not on which grand mares a king would accept to his court, but which king would be worthy of servicing the two queens. Never before in modern times have the careers of two female racehorses overshadowed male contemporaries for consecutive years. And chances are, any success by their offspring will be attributed to the mares’ genetic prowess..."  Of course, the author is referring to Rachel Alexandra and Zenyatta.

Another excerpt: "... C. V. Whitney, who contended that the surest path to the winner’s circle was “breeding the best to best and hoping for the best”— advice the owners of Rachel and Zenyatta have clearly followed."

And this is the most intriguing for me: "...the vagaries of equine alchemy glaringly represented by the knowledge that the mating that produced Rachel earned an A++ from eNicks, but the mating that produced Zenyatta rated only a D+."

The article at the NYT (The Rail blog)is open for comments and it would be nice to comment to encourage mainstream publications to continue covering horseracing.

maryann727 16 Mar 2011 1:47 PM

There is plenty of knowledge (including genetic knowledge) already available. Problem is, we don't appreciably attempt to rigorously pursue its application vis a vis our enormous database. If you're awaiting it to be handed to us on a silver platter, don't hold your breath.

sceptre 16 Mar 2011 2:46 PM

In the past, when I've checked the Street Cry-Vertigineux breeding on TrueNicks, the Street Cry - Vertigineux mating was rated "A+" - did Zenyatta by herself elevate a "D+" cross to an "A+" cross?

Susan from VA 17 Mar 2011 11:43 AM

Hi Susan,

Don't confuse TrueNicks and eNicks. Zenyatta's mating is an A+ from TrueNicks. eNicks has a different system and rates her D+.

Ian Tapp 17 Mar 2011 8:53 PM

Yeah girl power!!!  how would you rate the G1 goldmine nicking report? Would they be 20/20 matings?  I  try to use all 3 before I make a decision.  tx  trisha

trisha 27 Mar 2011 1:26 AM

Likewise, Trisha, I try to use all nicking programs before deciding. This year I included the goldmine program. Really liked the additional info it provided.

Racinfilly 20 May 2011 10:33 PM

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