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Galileo/Danehill is "Nick of the Moment"

With the game triumph of Roderic O’Connor in Saturday's Irish 2,000 Guineas (gr. I) following hot-on-the-heels of the smooth victory of Golden Lilac in the Poule d'Essai des Pouliches-French 1,000 Guineas (gr. I) one week ago, and Frankel’s runaway English 2,000 Guineas (gr. I) win three weeks ago, the cross of Galileo and mares by Danehill has become the classic “nick of the moment."

Galileo defeats Fantastic Light in the 2001 King George VI & Queen Elizabeth Diamond Stakes (gr. I)

Of course, with Galileo succeeding his sire Sadler’s Wells as Europe’s leading stallion, and Danehill daughters having already produced 157 stakes winners worldwide, it’s tempting to credit the combination's success as being merely a natural consequence of the quality of the components.

A look at the raw statistics available on the TrueNicks Enhanced Report demonstrates that not to be the case, showing that the cross between Galileo and mares by Danehill has resulted in 10 stakes winners from 62 starters. This is 16% stakes winners to starters, twice the stakes production strike rate that Galileo has enjoyed when bred to all other mares, and nearly three times the percentage of stakes winners achieved by Danehill mares that have starters by Galileo when bred to all other sires. It is also worth noting that the stakes production rate of the Danehill mares that have visited Galileo is within half a percent of that achieved by Danehill mares when bred to all other stallions, which indicates, initially at least, that Galileo did not have the advantage of covering Danehill mares that were especially distinguished.

Surprisingly, given its current standing, the Galileo/Danehill nick made a very tame initial foray. There were actually only two starters by Galileo out of mares by Danehill in Galileo’s first Northern Hemisphere crop – suggesting there were no particularly great expectations from the union – and they were the minor winners Galilean and Senora Galilei. Instead, and rather ironically in view of the fact of his eventual limited impact in Australia, the first stakes winners on the Galileo/Danehill cross – Banc de Fortune and Miss Galilei – came in his first Southern Hemisphere-sired crop (they being two of only four starters on the cross in that crop).

It was Galileo’s second crop, foals of 2004, that yielded a quick change in perception of the potential of the union. Teofilo (IRE) (TrueNicks,SRO) (out of Speirbhean, and a brother to one of the first crop winners, Senora Galilei) swept through an undefeated five-race juvenile campaign that saw him capture the Tyro Stakes, Futurity Stakes (gr. II), National Stakes (gr. I), and Dewhurst Stakes (gr. I, video below) to earn honours as Europe’s champion 2-year-old. Injury prevented Teofilo – the only starter for Galileo out of a Danehill mare from the 2004 Northern Hemisphere crop – from racing at 3, but as we will see, the message he’d sent had been taken to heart.

Teofilo triumphs over Holy Roman Emperor in the 2006 Darley Dewhurst Stakes (gr. I)

In the meantime, the Galileo/Danehill cross continued to enjoy a modest measure of success from its limited opportunities. In the 2005 foal crop, from four Galileo/Danehill starters came Cima de Triomphe, hero of the Italian Derby (gr. I), and stakes-placed Via Galilei. The Galileo/Danehill quartet also included Slaney Wave, a non-winning brother to Teofilo, and one wonders how the cross would have developed had Slaney Wave, not Teofilo, been the 2004 foal from Speirbhean. Perhaps there would have been no Frankel, no Golden Lilac, and no Roderic O’Connor!

When considering Teofilo, Slaney Wave, and Senora Galilei, it give us pause to consider the vagaries of genetics when it comes to pedigree theories such as Thoroughbred nicking. At a molecular level, there are clearly some variants within performance genes that Danehill had, and it is probable that these variants either support or enhance similar or complementary performance genes carried by Galileo. Thus, the concept of Thoroughbred nicking is a sound one, even if there are rare occurrences of such a strongly defined affinity as this. However, it is also clear with the number of attempts seen to date that not all Danehill mares inherited these performance variants to pass on to their foals and, equally, those that do still have the varies of Mendelian inheritance, gene interaction with environment, and the environment itself to contend with – hence the varying abilities of three full relations.

Galileo’s 2006 and 2007 crops yielded, respectively, seven and six starters out of Danehill mares. From 2006 came the two-time group III winner Cuis Ghaire, and stakes-placed Acteur Celebre. The following year’s crop saw no stakes winners bred on the cross, although three of the six starters were stakes-placed. The cross did enjoy more success with its Southern Hemisphere born foals, however, with the 2006 foal Sidera earning group stakes honours in South Africa, and the 2007 foal Reem winning at stakes level in the UAE.

We mentioned earlier that the success of Teofilo, racing as a 2-year-old of 2006, had sent a message to European breeders, and that is very apparent when we look at the Galileo foal crop of 2008 (conceived in the year immediately following Teofilo’s 2-year-old season). That crop produced a total of 166 registered foals, of whom 17 were out of mares by Danehill. To date, 12 of these have started and 11 are winners. Remarkably, the three stakes winners bred on the cross – Frankel, Golden Lilac, and Roderic O’Connor – are now classic winners, and we’d have to wonder when there were last three individual classic winners in the same season by an individual sire out of mares by the same broodmare sire.

Frankel dominates the 2011 QIPCO English 2,000 Guineas (gr. I)

Looking back, it’s not actually terribly surprising that the Galileo/Danehill cross has taken some time to find its feet, or at least to have serious numerical opportunity. The oldest Danehill mares – generally not as well-bred as his later daughters – were only 11 years old when Galileo retired to stud, and at that time there were really no pointers to encourage wholesale testing of the nick. The record of the cross of Galileo’s sire, Sadler’s Wells, with Danehill mares certainly didn’t offer any encouragement. In fact, at that time, it was actually a cross that had distinctly limited opportunity, with only 14 starters. This is understandable, as there were a number of factors that potentially militated against testing Sadler’s Wells with mares by Danehill, among them being the shortage of Danehill mares qualified enough to visit Sadler’s Wells in his prime; concerns about the resulting 2x4 inbreeding to Northern Dancer; and from a conformation standpoint, worries about a “worst of both worlds” result which could see a foal inherit light bone from Sadler’s Wells combined with Danehill’s tendency to sire offspring that were back-at-the-knee. The 14 starters on the Sadler’s Wells/Danehill cross did produce two stakes winners, but they can’t have been an influence on any decision-making process involving Galileo’s runners to date, as that duo, Bullet Train (a three-quarter-brother to Frankel) and Precious Gem, didn’t earn their black type winning status until 2010. It’s also worth noting that Bullet Train and Precious Gem are also the only two stakes winners for Sadler’s Wells out of mares by Danzig and his sons, although the sire did get 2007 group III winner Liscanna out of a mare by Danehill Dancer, a son of Danehill.

If the cross of Sadler’s Wells himself with mares descending from Danehill and Danzig was unspectacular, the same can be said of most other variations on the theme, other than the cross of Galileo with Danehill mares cross. There are 122 starters from the cross of all other sons of Sadler’s Wells and mares by Danehill, for just six stakes winners (by comparison, Galileo’s stud-mate Montjeu has just one stakes winner from 30 starters out of mares by Danehill). The union of Galileo with mares by sons of Danehill has resulted in just one stakes winner (group III scorer Prima Luce) from 27 starters, and trying other sons of Sadler’s Wells with mares by Danehill sons has generally proved an exercise in futility, with one stakes winner (Australian black type scorer Scenic Fair) from 79 starters. Clearly there is something unique to a considerable proportion of Danehill mares that suits Galileo from a genetic and biomechanical standpoint.

A look at the TrueNicks Enhanced Report, using Frankel as an example, reveals some other interesting background. As well as outperforming the sire and broodmare sire in percentage of stakes winners, the Galileo/Danehill cross has been a strong influence for quality, supplying seven of Galileo’s 41 group or graded winners (17%) and five of his 21 group or grade I winners (nearly 24%), although it has provided only a little better than 6% of Galileo’s starters. Four of the stakes winners are colts, six are fillies, but all four of the stakes-winning colts are group I winners, three of them achieving that distinction at 2 (Frankel and Roderic O’Connor at 2 and 3). In addition to conferring precocity, the nick also appears to convey a measure of speed. The average winning distance for the offspring of Galileo and Danehill mares is 8.58 furlongs – 9.10 furlongs for the colts, 7.96 furlongs for the fillies (slightly shorter than the average distance over which they have raced) – compared to an average winning distance of 10.21 furlongs for the offspring of Galileo with all other mares.

Click here to view the TrueNicks Enhanced report for the Galileo/Danehill nick

Miss Galilei has shown the most stamina out of the stakes winners for the cross, scoring a listed win over 1½ miles in South Africa. Of the group and graded winners, Cima de Triomphe’s Italian Derby (gr. I) win came at 11 furlongs, but most of them have been best at around a mile (although Teofilo was injured before he could attempt a distance in excess of seven furlongs, and Frankel, Golden Lilac, and Roderic O’Connor have yet to be tested over further than the Guineas trip). Of course, Danehill sired top-class winners across the complete range of distances, and so the data almost certainly reflects the understandable tendency to breed Galileo to Danehill mares with some speed in the background: there is no doubt if bred to stouter versions the offspring would have good prospects of staying Derby distances.

One thing is certain, the Galileo/Danehill cross is going to have plenty of opportunity in the future. There are 19 foals out of Danehill mares in Galileo’s 2009 foal crop, and a further 25 foals bred the same way from his 2010 crop. It will be very interesting to see how many Danehill mares have visited Galileo when the 2011 breeding season closes out and how many more are bred to him in 2012 on the back of this classic treble.

In the past, the team at Coolmore – the home to both Galileo and Danehill – could be considered to have brought about the appearance of genetic affinities by breeding one of their leading sires to high class daughters of another, with the inherent class of the immediate ancestors being more responsible for positive outcomes rather than a particularly strong genetic sympathy between the elements of the cross. Here Coolmore seem to have the best of both worlds, with a true genetic affinity occurring between two of their best stallions to ever stand in the Golden Vale of Tipperary. What’s more, with Galileo himself only 13 years old, and the youngest daughters of Danehill only seven, this should, as they say, “run and run.”

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18 Comments:

What are your thoughts then on the prospects for progeny of sons of Danehill, who have been mated with daughters of Galileo?

Jason 22 May 2011 6:37 PM

Actually, there is already a precedent, the current three-year-old Alexander Pope. He won the Gallinule Stakes (Gr III), a lead up to the Irish Derby for the Coolmore team. He is by Danehill Dancer out of a Galileo mare. Again, we doubt it is going to work all the time, and not with every son of Danehill, nor every daughter of Galileo, but there is clear genetic affinity we are talking about here.

Byron Rogers 22 May 2011 6:49 PM

The Galileo/Danehill nick should be very prominent for years to come but let us have a closer look at the current wonder horse of that nick, Frankel. Last year in the Group 1Dewhurst Stakes at Newmarket Roderic O'Connor finished second to Frankel and showed just how useful that form was by going on to win a Group 1 in France. After finishing down the field in the English 2000 Guineas to the wonder horse Roderic O'Connor has come back well to win the Irish 2000 Guineas to once again pay a great compliment to Frankel. But not only that, Excelbration who had finished a good second to Frankel in the Greenham Stakes at Newbury in April won the German 2000 Guineas with the greatest of ease on Sunday May 22nd. The next race for Frankel will be the one mile St. James's Palace Stakes at Royal Ascot, but what happens after that? For breeding purpose it is very important to have Frankel win a Group 1 at least at 10 furlongs and for that reason the 10 furlong Juddmonte International at York in August is being considered.

John T 22 May 2011 9:24 PM

The "nick" is meaningless - It is inbreeding to Northern Dancer that is working worldwide.

Thomas Clark 23 May 2011 7:00 AM

Big statement, Thomas. You believe that 3x4 inbreeding to Northern Dancer is responsible for the success of Galileo/Danehill? Not only are the principles of Mendelian genetics against you, but a quick look at the Equineline Pedigree Analysis Program easily debunks your claim.

These are figures for Northern Dancer inbreeding between 3 and 4 generations:

176,792 foals of racing age

113,619 (64.3%) starters

68,650 (38.8%) winners

4,355 (2.5%) stakes winners

Ian Tapp 23 May 2011 10:11 AM

Hi Thomas,

Thanks for the note. A few years ago I actually conducted a study on Northern Dancer inbreeding where Northern Dancer was in the male line of the sire and the broodmare sire, as here.

This took all known foals bred on any version of the Northern Dancer/Northern Dancer cross, going back four generations. At the time the cross had produced 2.57% stakes winners, as opposed to 3.6% stakes winners for all Northern Dancer line stallions, and 4.09% stakes winners for all Northern Dancer line mares. So, in general, inbreeding to Northern Dancer in this fashion was under-achieving.

So, while inbreeding to Northern Dancer may have been "working worldwide" and is in a tremendous number of black-type stakes winners - 4,536 with Northern Dancer 4 x 4 or closer, to be precise - it's taken 116,394 starters to achieve that (2.5% stakes winners to starters).

Now, when we come to Galileo with Danehill mares, if you read the article carefully, you will note that the cross has produced about 16% stakes winners to starters, so is doing twice as well as Galileo with all other mares, and three times as well as the Danehill mares bred to Galileo have done with all other stallions.

Far from being meaningless, this nick is an example of a true genetic affinity that exists between Galileo, and a high proportion of the Danehill mares bred to him (note that most versions of Galileo and Sadler's Wells with Danehill and Danzig have underachieved).

You are certainly free to try and refute the evidence for the Galileo/Danehill cross, but you'll need to produce some hard facts to do so.

Alan Porter 23 May 2011 10:46 AM

Galileo looks like Sadlers Wells who looks like N.D.  Danehill looks a little like Danzig who looks a little like N.D.  I believe the affinity you mention is more physical than genetic.  The phenotype of Galileo and Danehill matches up well.  Galileo is smaller than Sadlers Wells and has Miswaki in there as his dam sire.  Danehill is 3x3 to Natalma, a daughter of Native Dancer, the paternal great grandsire of Miswaki.  I believe that is the nick coming out in these horses.  I would like to see Galileo bred to a Sadlers Wells line mare and see if he has the same strike rate.  There are plenty of granddaughters of Montjeu out there for them to use.  Galileo's offspring are also not running as far as Sadlers Wells did....up to 2 1/2 miles.  That is the Miswaki coming out in him along with Mr. Prospector.  Another great article Alan...A+++

Robert 23 May 2011 3:11 PM

Robert,

"Galileo looks like Sadlers Wells who looks like N.D.  Danehill looks a little like Danzig who looks a little like N.D.  I believe the affinity you mention is more physical than genetic"

I can't agree with this as far as the 'looks like' goes. I never saw Northern Dancer, outside of photos, but Galileo is a good hand taller (not smaller as you suggest) and much more lengthy and substantial a horse than his own sire Sadler's Wells. Equally Danehill was a much bigger and lengthier horse than his own sire Danzig. If anything there may be a biomechanical affinity taking place between the two as while Danehill was slightly more substantial and had a better hindquarter and hindleg, the two of them shared a lot of the same qualities in the neck, shoulder, girth and they were both certainly among the most beautiful movers at the walk I have ever seen.  

I will agree with you though that the cross seems to be imparting a lot of speed and some distance limitations, but it won't surprise me (and I suspect you) if one bred on the cross, or in reverse, comes out and wins a big race at a mile and a half.  

Byron Rogers 23 May 2011 4:46 PM

Nice piece of research, but I remain unconvinced. Let me narrow down my issue to a few related questions:

1. Consider two stallions, one has but 90+ named foals of which 16% are SWs. The second stallion has sired 14+ times as many foals as the other and 8% are SWs. All else equal (including age not a factor), how certain are you that you would prefer to breed to the first referenced stallion rather than the second? (speaks to the broader question of statistical significance).

2. How often, if at all, have you done retrospective analysis of situations such as that offered in your Galileo/Danehill vs Galileo/all others? I realize that by being "publicized"/"accepted" a nick may later somewhat "dilute" (potential overload of lesser quality mates by broodmare sire, etc.), but careful analysis can eliminate this variable.

I would also like to see your "numbers" for only those who competed in Ireland, England, and France.  

sceptre 24 May 2011 11:56 PM

Hi sceptre,

Excellent set of questions. Byron has addressed them in a new blog -- click here

Ian Tapp 26 May 2011 5:38 PM

I think everyone who loves the sport of thoughbred racing like to see a great racemare produce a winner. So how good it felt when the first foal of Ouija Board, a son of Kingmambo, Voodoo Prince won at the second time of asking at Haydock Park. Ouija Board has a yearling filly by Galileo and I am looking forward to seeing what she can do as a 2 year old next year.

John T 29 May 2011 9:56 PM

I love this cross, both Galileo & Danehill were major group 1 winners & champion sires so its more than likely that the resultant progeny will be of high quality. I have also used a similar cross that first became apparent after Teofilo hit his straps. I used a group 1 winning son of Sadler's Wells over my Eagle Eyed (Danehill's brother) mare.  Its gratifying to know that it works on that level, hopefully for me also, my colt is an unraced 3-y-o who is showing potential in his training.

MurrayK

MurrayK 30 May 2011 7:00 AM

Frankel got the job done in the St.James,s Palace Stakes

and although it may not have looked as impressive as his win

in the Guineas it still was a good win as he confirmed the form with those he has run against before.His time was slightly better than Canford Cliffs when he won the same race last year,and he started to idle more than anything else when he got the lead.The trainer has said his next race will either be the 8 furlong Sussex Stakes or the 10 furlong Juddmonte International.

John T 14 Jun 2011 9:54 PM

It may be that Danehill mares do well with other lines of Sadlers Wells family as well eg Nureyev line stallions.A casual observation suggests this maybe so, Also Zabeel whose dam is by Nureyev. Or perhaps Danehill's double of Natalma gives him and his daughters a greater affinity with other Northern Dancer lines.

Do statistics support these thoughts?

Wilco 20 Jun 2011 12:25 AM

It has been another remarkable year for Galileo,to-day Aug

30th at Epsom he had a 2 year old daughter,Albamara win a maiden at a distance just over a mile.She is out of Albanoua

who won 3 group 1 races in Germany,and Albanoua,s full-sister Alborada was a dual winner of the group 1 Champion Stakes at Newmarket so much will be expected from Albamara.

No doubt she was given this race at Epsom to-day with the

Epsom Oaks next June as a long term goal.

John T 30 Aug 2011 9:15 PM

I think the racing conditions in Australia in the noughties (at least from 2000-2009) made a big impact on the lack of success of the Sadlers Wells (and Galileo) lines. We had severe drought conditions and the Sadlers Wells line horses don't seem to stretch out in these conditions. ( I remember seeing one of the first Sadlers Wells imports, the magnificent stallion Runyon with his feet wrapped in cotton wool after winning at WFA at Caulfied, I think the race was taken off him for having Lignocaine in his system). Also the 2 Montjeu stallions who won AJC derbies during this time did it on bog tracks (Nom de Jeu and Roman Emperor) which did sometimes happen in Sydneys unpredictable autumns. So I think there are sometimes extraordinary circumstances and we have to be a bit careful with the statistics although maybe taken over 25 years the true trends will show through. For instance we seem to have a bumper crop of three year olds this year (2013) with them either winning or close to beating the older WFA stars. I think this crop would have been weanlings and yearlings when the drought broke and maybe accessed superior nutrition than previous crops? Maybe someone remembers what the conditions were like in the preceding years before Octagonal, Saintly, Nothing Like a Dane and Filante appeared as a super crop?

The drought theory would correlate quite well with the emergence of High Chaparral, although his great crop (So you think, Shoot Out, Descarado, Monaco Consul) were born and raised in the early years in NZ but at least raced here when conditions started to soften up.

Maybe some of those dud shuttle stallions during the noughties will still get to leave their mark when their descendants through the broodmares, race on softer ground with more give.

On the inbreeding to Northern Dancer as the reason for the success of Galileo and Danehill nick, I really am more interested in the influence of his female family (Natalma, Almahmoud and even Mother Goose) with Machiavellian and Danehill also coming from this female family (Halo too). The statistics on the Danehill - Street Cry cross do look very exciting with the Cup winner Shocking being a prime example.

The interesting thing too about Street Cry is that he is throwing great horses in the USA, UK and Australia, all tracks, all conditions. Although there maybe a tendency for them to be a bit heavy and have leg problems.

Lou 24 Mar 2013 9:45 AM

galileo-STRAVINKY-CROSS.

awesome farms 22 Apr 2013 10:09 AM

GALILEO- STRAVINKY CROSS.

awesome farms 22 Apr 2013 10:10 AM

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