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I'm at a bit of a loss on this guy, so any candid insights from you and Byron would be appreciated. My gut tells me to be wary of the hype, as he had all turf form, and has sired only turf runners. Rather than him being a potential source for soundness (over here), he could well prove otherwise since he and his get were only tested on turf- also, he's smallish, but appears relatively heavily bodied for what appears relatively light bone (but, it's the density that really counts). His pedigree is not as good as his sire's (perhaps, an even more gifted runner), but so far it seems he's beome a better sire than Octagonal. Hard for me to gauge/compare Austailian form, and it seems that all sires have a realtively low starter/winner ratio-so what gives? The fact that Lonhro has excelled over there as a sire of sprinters-middle distance types is another worry. The US remains king at this, so could Lonhro be little more than a big fish in a small pond (Austrailia)? I guess the + poster boy (comparative) could be Noholme II -he too just turf, but his pedigree was arguably superior, arrived at an earlier era, and, more importantly, for every Noholme there could have been 50 others like him that would have failed. My brief research suggests that Lonhro tends to sire non-precocious types, so while he may receive more "precocious" mares over here, owners of his offspring better be mindful not to proceed too quickly. Very curious to see what Darley prices him at-likely too high-, as fee should probably be no more than 25k. As said, would appreciate your take.      

sceptre, I read your comments, but any horse that can win the way he did in the Australian Cup has my respect!

I think that North American racing will soon head towards less precocious horses that can have longer racing careers and continue running at 4, 5 and 6. Stamina and strength are needed as well to make this breed sounder and more suited for "retirement" occupations for geldings and for the horses that are not quite fast enough for racing. Anything even approaching an outcross is good, too. Horses with a good turf pedigree will always be in demand.

I think bringing this horse to Kentucky is good. But I really don't agree with shuttling stallions back and forth every year. That enables one stallion to produce far too many foals per year, which is not good for the breed as a whole for a bunch of reasons.

eric jensen,

Lonhro

331 starters; 230 winners (69% from starters); 48 stakes horses (14.5% from starters); 31 SW (9.4% from starters); 13 GSW (3.9% from starters)

Other Darley stallions for comparison:

Medaglia d'Oro

281 starters; 165 winners (59%); 45 stakes horses (16.0%); 26 SW (9.3%); 14 GSW (5.0%)

Street Cry

604 starters; 385 winners (64%); 87 stakes horses (14.4%); 53 SW (8.8%); 34 GSW (5.6%)

wouldn't call him "smallish", he is 16.1hh. Of course all of his runners are grass, we only race on grass here! His stats are...

69.8% winners-to-runners

9.3% stakeswinners-to-runners

31 stakes winners - three Gr.1, five Gr.2, five Gr.3

Comparing Lonhro to Noholme II is a farce. Noholme arrived in northwest Arkansas in a 18 wheel cattle trailer, along with 10 or more mares Mr. Goff also imported. Noholme was bred to the Goff mares almost exclusively, very little if any quality. When Jon Starr bought Abla-Jay (Nodouble's dam) for $3,500, Mr. Goff went balistic over such an outragious amount of money being spent on one mare.

I will be willing to wager the worst mare bred to Lonho will be much better than the best bred to Noholme in the frist year.

Sceptre, you are looking at a stallion picture, not a horse-in-training picture. He is a bit of a bull-dog of a horse, not the classic-type stands-over-a-lot-of-ground type. So was Northern Dancer.

In Australia, they race on all types of turf - hard to boggy. Before the Euros began watering their courses to death during dry spells, many a turf runner from overseas did well at stud in the US, Sir Gallahad III, Blenheim II, Mahmoud, Khaled, Nasrullah, Royal Charger, etc. If turf and dirt talent were mutually exclusive, one wouldn't see dirt runners like Affirmed become known as turf sires. And Strawberry Road didn't do so badly, now did he?

Do you think his pedigree is not as good as Octagonal's because you recognize the names there and he came from an Aga Khan family? His dam was certainly a blue-hen so he has that over Lonhro, but nobody could mistake her sire Pieces of Eight for a top stallion.

Lonhro comes from the fine old New Zealand family of Locket (1872 Thunderbolt), dam of a NZ Derby winner, and ancestress of dozens more top racehorse.  Lonhro  is a full brother to Niello, winner of the G1 Spring Champion S (the race that substituted for the AJC Derby when that race was moved to autumn). His dam was a Group 3 winner, G1-placed. She had a sister, by Sir Tristram, who won the AJC Oaks (G1). The second dam was a half-sister to two Derby winners by Sir Tristram, Grosvenor (Victoria Guineas and Derby, a successful sire) and National Gallery (West Australian Derby). This family does love Sir Tristram. Fourth dam Gay Poss won the AJC Oaks.

Damsire Straight Strike was quite successful in New Zealand; he was champion sire in 1991-92, second on the list in 1990-91; he was a good sire of 2yos and he led that sire list in 1986-87 and 1990-91. He also sired many Guineas winners and is the damsire (among others) of a NZ Derby winner.

sceptre,

I think you're right to be skeptical--and breeders should be to an extent--but at least he's a proven sire in a top racing jurisdiction as opposed to being a completely unproven stallion.

It's the same scenario on the reverse: Medaglia d'Oro was proven in North America before they shuttled him. The risk is similar--how will the new environment affect his production?

There are plenty of examples like Unbridled's Song or Zamindar to show that a good stallion is very much the product of the environment. Obviously I don't expect Lonhro to be Nasrullah, but it certainly wouldn't surprise me for him to be very effective, like a More Than Ready or Street Cry who can get top class horses anywhere.

I don't think this is a Sir Tristram or Sunday Silence scenario, where Lonhro would bring something absolutely deficient in the KY broodmare population to drastically upgrade them; I think it's a chance to get a quality stallion from bloodlines not often seen.

Regarding Lonhro's female family...I think it's solid enough. I'm not sure how much that matters anyway...look at Medaglia. If he's proven to be good sire, then he's a good sire. The only question here is environment.

Firstly, thank you to Ian for correcting my comment about the low starter/winner ratios in Austrailia. Lonhro, for one, does have very good/excellent sire stats in Austailia.

Please now permit me to respond to some of the comments addressed to me:

Terry M: Not sure if you were referring to Lonhro, but I wouldn't consider him a source for stamina-and what does "strength" mean? As to your point about precocity, please read again my post. I was merely pointing out that present American-style training/racing practices might mot lend well to the get of the less precocious Lonhro sired types.

Kristen Manning: Yes, he's listed as 16.1 so, if accurate, he's certainly not short. He doesn't have much scope, though, and appears to be somewhat light boned relative to "heavy" body. None of this is necessarily a negative, and I tend to prefer a shorter-coupled type.

Cyd Beevers (and others): Completely disagree with your Lasix comments. You have no evidence to demonstrate that horses who compete in jurisdictions which prohibit race-day Lasix have any lower incidence of EIPH.

NVBFRANK: I fail to grasp your point. Noholme II was a success over here. Had I cited him as an example of failure your commwents would have some merit.

and lastly, Pedigree Ann: Perhaps you were looking only at his stallion picture, but I also viewed the various videos of his races. He did appear to be a relatively heavy-bodied type. Your right, though, evaluating physically a stallion at stud can sometimes prove deceiving-but such tends to be the exception, rather than the rule. Your annecdotes about Nasrullah, Blenheim, Mahmoud, etc. are well known to me and considered before offering my earlier post. More recent ones, such as Blushing Groom, El Prado, etc. could also be added to that list. But, note that while all succeeded as sires of dirt performers, none emigrated from Austrailia. They also share other dissimilarities to a Lonhro, but better left to another time. As to the comparitive of Lonhro's pedigree to Octagonal-it is rather obvious that Octagonal is the better bred. Very interesting your expose on the merits of Lonhro's female side, but your argument is a bit circular, as it cites only New Zealand/Austrailian achievement.

For the fee they will be charging, breeders should view this stallion with utmost caution. In recent years, too many here have succumbed to the hype of the elite runner, etc. umproven stallion only then to waste the potentialities of many of our best mares. Lonhro's situation is somewhat different but, perhaps, no less a roll of the dice.      

Thanks for your comments Sceptre. Just wondering, are Austrailia and Austailia the same place, and if so, where is it? I am thinking of taking a family vacation to a new spot and this sounds like a cool place.

sceptre

Agree with your eye. L has the heavy bodied look of speed. Why would we need more of that in America? Stronger boned, more durable and certainly longer distance blood lines are what America needs. I certainly enjoy reading the posts. Most are based on emotion but facts can and will always be misleading.  Hindsight is clear, predicting the future is fun but mostly folly.  Kittens Joy will be the greatest stallion in this decade. Wish  I had one. An obscure stallion will merge soon to change the breeding patterns.  L will be successful but not a star.  Speed works but never enhances the overall population.

It may be ok for a Derby winner to only have 5 lifetime starts and retire unsound. He's made money and if his Derby win impresses enough people he'll make money in the breeding barn too.

But what about all his offspring who inherit his unsoundness. How much do they earn?

Rather a hardy type who starts 3-50 times and earns cheques regularly.

I think the outbreeding is long overdue and desperately needed.  This looks to be an outstanding stud.  My only question in this (about Smarty Jones AND Lonrho) is it healthy for the stallion to keep being moved back and forth like this in a constant shuttle?

As far as size..isn't he about the same size as the Slew?  It certainly didn't detract from his ability to breed champions.

Southbendfarm, actually it was third and he was giving away weight to all except the winner of the race in 2009 (finished 18th), 1.5 kilos to the winner, 5 kilos to the second. The Melbourne Cup is a handicap.

Handsandheels,

Yep, we Americans can be pretty stupid, but I must point out that you just misspelled Lonhro's name.

We're certainly looking forward to seeing the big horse.

Go USA.

A salvo has been fired. Lonhro is being advertised on TV as

"The racehorse as nature intended". Just as I anticipated.

I reckon that you will love the Lonhro stock. They are sound and the few that have started on our few all weather/sand tracks have done extremely well.

They are intelligent, even tempered and do well in a close stabling environment.

We in Australia have a "healthy" suspicion of shuttling stallions and tend to see through the marketing hype and so should you guys. I'll tell ya what though, this fella Lonhro, gets top quality stock with extra big hearts and in my opinion, just as some of the shuttle stallions have added a much needed infusion of new blood to our breeding stock, Lonhro could well be a very significant stallion for you guys.

WOW, he really is something, isn't he ?  Physically, to me anyway, he looks like Curlin (who I think will be the next greatest failure at stud) only much more attractive.  What a beast, he exudes power. I'm with most of the other posters in the feeling that we need new blood. Lonhro looks like a big strong solid horse and if I could afford him I would breed to him. I imagine his fee will be somewhere in the area of 20K to 30K. You know Sheik Mohammad will be sending some top mares to him. Is it my imagination or is Darley buying a Offlee lot of their stallion's offspring at auction ? It seemed like most of the yearlings they bought at the recent Keeneland sale were Medaglia, Bernardini, the Street's (father and son) or Hard Spuns. If this practice continues to follow then we should expect Darley/Godolphin to own quite a lot of Lonhro offspring in a couple of years.

It amazes me that some people are so limited in their insights to breeding and pedigree. Rahy one of our great racehorses and sires was not only known for his turf runners but, lo and behold, he sired numerous dirt runners that were also champions. Another stallion that comes to mind is Northern Dancer whose early offspring were mainly raced in europe but then american breeders discovered that his runners were also great on the dirt. Some breeders need to, excuse the pun, but get off their high horse and realize that a great sire can produce great runners on both surfaces even if his racing preference was one particular surface. When we limit ourselves we create the situation we are now in, too much Mr. Prospector/Northern Dancer/Seattle Slew bloodlines and not enough outcrosses. Thank god for the breeders with insight who will stand a stallion like Giant's Causeway who shows that a stallion can be successful on all surfaces. I am excited to see the offspring of Einstein who will also throw the stamina that is greatly needed back in american horses. And with Lonhro here I am jumping for joy. Perhaps too many Quarterhorse breeders/trainers for whatever reason jumped into Thoroughbred breeding and decided, as they have done with the Appaloosa breed, to turn it into shorter distance horses good for that quick quarter mile. A Thoroughbred is a Thoroughbred, an Appaloosa an Appaloosa and a Quarterhorse a Quarterhorse. Lets keep it that way, please.

Sorry....late to the party here...

Sceptre....he is all turf, but that is just about all they race on in Australia. Importantly for American conditions he had a turn of foot and put himself into a race which I think you need here.

That is not the best photo of him. He has plenty of bone for his body. He is not small either. 16.1 hands, but breeders need to be warned, while he is a hulking beast, with plenty of muscle, don't send him a small mare. He actually does best with mares with a bit of size and scope to them.

He does get them sound. They get to the races and they generally have a lot of starts. The one limitation of them in some ways is that he was a 7 to 8f horse (that got 10 by pure class and pace of race) and he gets progeny that generally are the same. Hard to get one that goes past a mile and a quarter despite the fact that his own sire won a Derby over a mile and a half and his female line is full of horses that got a mile and a half. His brother Niello was more able to get 10f but that is genetics for you.

re: Not for Sale...had the opportunity to take a look at him in a trip to Argentina. What a nice horse! big strong, powerful beast. But that leads me to Southern Halo, a terrible bleeder who after being Champion sire of Argentina for a number of years came back up to America for a season or two. While he wasn't a commercial success, he left us the very solid stallion More Than Ready who has kept the Halo line alive (if such a thing as sirelines exist). If Lonhro does only a little more than that, would he not be considered a success?

Southbendfarm/Karen...in regards to the North American thoroughbred being too inbred, you are on the wrong page there. Genetically speaking the thoroughbred as a breed is in no danger of being too inbred, despite the closed gene pool. In fact there is an argument that it is not inbred enough!

You'll love lonhro, intelligent,wonderful temperament and plenty of scope to race on as 4/5/6 yr olds, but I dont think he'll come cheaply.

Kathleen:

This year's English Derby winner Pour Moi retired unsound from 5 starts.

No prob. As far as KY Derby goes, Grindstone is the most recent example--6 starts, retired before the Preakness.

Looks like Lonnie's done it again as a sire-he just keeps stepping up to new levels, this time with his (soon to be) Champion son Pierro (x Miss Right Note), a close relation to Octagonal's Laverock. Talk about tenacious. You Americans may perhaps have heard of him, but just in case you haven't, Pierro is currently unbeaten from 5 starts (all stakes), including the Breeders Plate on debut (Oct' 2011-where his trainer Gai Waterhouse declared him the future $3.5 million Golden Slipper winner, which was justified when he won the great race on 7th of April 2012). He backed up 7 days later to take the Group 1 Sires Produce Stakes over 1400m (seven furlongs) in race record time-the record having stood since 1977. The horses he has left in his wake include previously-unbeatens Samaready (More Than Ready, won the G1 Blue Diamond) and Black Caviar's boom younger brother All Too Hard. It's seen as likely that Pierro should improve into his 3yo year and over increasing distance, just as his sire did.

Henry

The concept of the "large heart gene" has been widely refuted and discredited. As it appears in the X-Factor books, it is not based on science and did not undergo any peer review process.

performancegenetics.com/.../cardio-evaluation-almost-comes-full-circle