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Eddington was a slow developing (first stakes win in fall of 3yo year), staying type, whose stud record has been anything but sterling. Secret Circle is from his third crop and is his first SW of any kind. In the BH Stallion Register, he has 216 starters, and one SW. Dismal. It is likely that Eddington had little to do with Secret Circle's phenotype, so extrapolating SC distance proclivities from Eddington's would be foolish. The dam's family are mainly sprinter/miler and miler types, often winners at 2 short, then milers thereafter, including the dam's half-sister Really Polish, who ran 3rd in the Ky Oaks. This seems a more likely future for Secret Circle, IMHO.

Hi Sceptre,

I think to a degree, we are pretty much talking about the same thing.

If we don't know what the horse is from a biomechanical/ physiological/genomic standpoint, we are really just guessing at his optimal distance. The overall pedigree (whether one wants to look at it subjectively or to attempt some measurement, such as dosage) is often something of a guide (like does tend to beget like), especially when taken into consideration with what we've seen on the racetrack.

That said, there are times when what a horse has actually inherited is in conflict with what we might guess he would inherit. Looking at the pedigree, most people would guess that Secret Circle would have no problem with nine furlongs, and probably not with the Derby distance either. The same would probably have gone for Discreetly Mine (hey, I thought he might be a Belmont Stakes horse!).

This is nothing new by the way. Just after the war in England, we had the brilliant Tudor Minstrel, who didn't get an inch past a mile, but was by Owen Tudor (who stayed well enough to win an Ascot Gold Cup at 2 1/2 miles), out of a mare by Sansovino (Epsom Derby), out of Lady Juror (won Jockey Club Stakes at 1 1/2 miles), who in turn was by Son-in-Law, who did his best work at distances in excess of two miles.

While the combination of genotype and phenotype might regulate a runner's optimum distance (and the genotype, phenotype and cardio can be at odds with one another), there are exceptions. Both we and other researchers have seen Kentucky Derby winners that are genetically sprinters (they are the Alberto Juantorena 800m type) and often have still a maturity edge against their contemporaries in the Spring, and especially if they are sprint types that also have a big cardio. They would generally fair less well against older horses and later-maturing three-year-olds in a Breeders' Cup Classic.

I can also recall that among the good runners of the last 20 years or so that we've sampled, coming up on a horse who had the genetic profile of a sprinter, but who had some excellent route performances. A little research showed that he did best off a slow early pace, and his success was probably down to some smart training that enabled the horse to conserve his anaerobic power to the closing stages of the race, and thus ended up being a grade one route horse, rather than perhaps a grade two or three sprinter miler.

Thanks, Alan. Yes, I'm basically with you. I did, however, cringe at your statement "Both we and researchers have seen Kentucky Derby winners that are genetically sprinters..." Since one of my points suggested that our knowledge of genetics is too inadequate to accurately identify (genetically) aptitude, you, by this statement, appear to believe otherwise...Your points about the exceptions (ex.-Tudor Minstrel) are very interesting. Graustark, particularly when viewed retrospectively, is perhaps another worth pondering. He was not bred to be a sprinter, but flashed brilliant sprinter speed. He did demonstrate an ability to stretch that speed at least to 1 1/16 m, and lost (by a nose) his only (and last) start at 1 1/8 m while fracturing a coffin bone. He was the odds-on favorite for that year's Derby, but was retired after that Blue Grass. He went on to sire mostly classic staying types of quality. It's quite rare for a horse to display such speed and also stay classic distances-as perhaps, what did prevent Tudor Minstrel. You mentioned the potentiality of competing (my word) attributes (Genotype-Phenotype-Cardio-Muscle fiber type predominance-Respiratory, etc.). Had a Tudor Minstrel sired more stayers (he didn't sire only sprinters, but unlike Graustark did sire some brilliant sprinters-Tumiga comes readily to mind-but then there was also the more classic, What A Treat), the competing attributes hypothesis might have fitted him. In the case of Graustark it may have applied. Problem is, we don't know how far Graustark might have stretched-but one might surmise that he had a goodly number of fast twitch fibers combined with a quite good cardio-respiratory and a physique phenotype akin to a muscular stayer (a bit rare) variety. Some of this would make sense, in view of his later sire record, but I've always been mystified why he didn't sire more speed. And also, think back, name another son of Ribot with speed anywhere approaching Graustark's (Yes, I know about the rumors-that he was actually sired by Swaps- but Olin Gentry and I were very close, and he swore to me that Graustark was sired by Ribot-also, take a look at the Darby Dan mares bred to Graustark-several were by Swaps)... Putting it together, I think you've already hinted at, at least, some of the reasons. You, yourself, are a runner, and are aware that if you go out too fast you'll have nothing left well before the end-even though at most other times (with the proper pace) you may be well capable of succeeding at relatively long distances. So, along with the aforesaid competing attributes, there is also the mental (inherited and/or acquired) "qualities" at play. Maybe a Tudor Minstrel, a Graustark, or let's say a Raise A Native had a "negative mental" to mitigate against their relative positive stamina attributes?  

Thanks, Alan; your post was quite helpful. Also, I'm now less skeptical of your Performancegenetics.