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Danedream the Newest Addition to Frankel's 2013 Book

2011 Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe (Fr-I) winner Danedream has been retired and will be bred to Frankel in 2013. Danedream was forced to miss the 2012 Arc when her Cologne, Germany, training base was put under quarantine for swamp fever Oct. 1. The filly remains confined to the facility pending future tests.

Owner Teruya Yoshida, whose family also owns top Australian filly Mosheen, made the decision to retire Danedream. She will be shipped to Japan once she is in foal to Frankel.

The mating combines two outstanding racehorses, each produced from a Danehill mare, meaning that the resulting foal will carry Danehill 3x3. There are three stakes winners from 64 starters on the cross of Galileo and sons with Nijinsky II line mares, including French St. Leger (Fr-I) winner Allegretto. Although Frankel's sire Galileo has sired a winner out of a Lomitas mare, the cross has a below average stakes winner strike rate given the sire lines involved, translating to a TrueNicks D rating.

What do you think of the mating?

Click to view the TrueNicks report for Frankel–Danedream

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18 Comments:

Seems like quite a bit of unnecessary risk-especially for such an elite broodmare prospect. Unproven stallion, unproven to unproven, and most of all, the risky 3x3. Perhaps Mr. Yoshida sees this as geographically the lone reasonable opportunity to send her to Frankel. He must also be a true Frankel "believer". Given a similar scenario (including being fixed as well as he), I might have done the same had it been a first year Buckpasser, Graustark, Dubai Millennium, or Seeking The Gold.  

sceptre 22 Dec 2012 12:30 PM

Problem I have with this "D" rating, is it counts all the sons/grandsons of Nijinski as equals.  There are grandsons which never produced a stakes winner, and others who produced some of the best.  

These ratings, like speed figures, pretend to be scientific but still include a boat-load of subjectivity, and more so when including in comparison horses of widely varied breeding.

While the inbreeding might be a tad closer than I would ideally prefer, he at least is going with the "breed the best to the best" method.  

Lmaris 22 Dec 2012 3:47 PM

Lmaris,

You make a good point. But we can only use the data that's available. Unfortunately, Galileo and his sons haven't been bred to hundreds of Lomitas mares to give us a more precise sample group. In fact, there's only one starter by Galileo out of a Lomitas mare (a winner) and none by a son of Galileo out of a Lomitas mare.

This is why nicking theory uses sire lines and broodmare sire lines, because these groups of horses will have more genetic similarity with each other than with the general population. This gives us the best available representation of the trends when the lines are combined.

Of course you still have to be smart about it. Blindly accepting a rating as fact without context gets you nowhere. While the nick hasn't been great for Galileo, Galileo/Danehill has been remarkable. It will be interesting to see if giving Frankel more Danehill blood proves to be a positive.

Ian Tapp 22 Dec 2012 6:37 PM

With reference to adding Danehill to Frankel: we can note that Teofilo, who is by Galileo out of Danehill mare, has recent Irish listed winner, Paene Magnus, out of a mare by Danehill (the cross is 1-for-1).

Of course, it's always a question what to do with a horse who is bred on the best cross for his sire (as is Frankel). Happily, it didn't stop Pharos/Fairway/Pharamond II and Sickle (all Phalaris/Chaucer), and more recently the squad by A.P. Indy out Mr. Prospector mares - Pulpit, Malibu Moon, Mineshaft, Flatter, Congrats - haven't done too badly!

Alan Porter 23 Dec 2012 9:07 AM

Interesting observations, Alan. Caused me to take it one step further-re the specific topic at hand-Frankel on Danedream and the bite back to the Danehill "nick". Did a quick review of Pulpit, Malibu Moon, Flatter and Congrats (excluded Mineshaft, since I don't see him as a success) re-biting back to Mr. Prospector. Must say, better than I had anticipated-clearly for Flatter (through Fappiano), and it's early, but perhaps the same for Congrats. The Mr. P. bite back for Malibu Moon and Pulpit seems not as good, but they did very well with Easy Goer/Alydar/Raise A Native, and Raise A Native alone, and well with Affirmed. So, maybe this Danehill inbreeding here isn't as risky as I had imagined...A client of mine has two seasons to Frankel and asked for some mating recommendations. My main response was: Mill Reef/Never Bend/Lalun; Rough Shod II; Almahmoud (but avoid close repeats); Ahonoora, Halo/Hail To Reason/*Turn-To, etc. Perhaps I shouldn't have added-avoid close repeats (re-Almahmoud).    

sceptre 23 Dec 2012 4:06 PM

While true nicks rating is a D i'm not sure their is enough evidence that the cross isn't a good one, breeding her to a miler type (although he could win at longer distances) is probably a good thing. I can't wait to see how Frankle does as a sire although a fan of his I wonder if he was as great as they say or just a good race horse in a generation of subpar horses.  

Roberts 23 Dec 2012 4:43 PM

My impression of the Japanese investors in horseracing, of the Yoshida ilk, is that they don't go in simply for short term gain but for long term bonanzas and to improve upon American and European bloodstock. In this light, the Frankel/Danedream match is  brilliant. There is a good chance that the mating can produce a stakes quality performer given that Danedream carries the best of Frankel's dam's blood, and if not, there will still be tremendous value in the pedigree especially if the foal is a filly.

Ranagulzion 23 Dec 2012 6:48 PM

Hi Sceptre,

I've done the same excercise re Frankel, and reached pretty similar conclusions.

With close inbreeding, I tend not to do it with valuable, untried stock, as I don't think the upside is worth the risk, and if you do happen to get something funky with a first foal, you're not sure if it is something that the mare might be inclined to pass on in general, or a product of the close inbreeding.

For clients with large broodmare bands, I will get a little more "experimental" to see if we can upgraded less commercially valuable stock.

Alan Porter 24 Dec 2012 12:24 PM

You can never have enough Northern Dancer in your pedigree and this mating will be chock full of it. The 3 x 3 inbreeding doesn't bother me at all. It's like A.G. Vanderbilt used to say, " breed to the best, and hope for the best." In animal husbandry it's a biological crapshoot, and you just never know where that next great one will come from. But what we do know is that Danehill has produced more stakes winners than any other sire line. I will say one thing about Frankel. There has been question marks about how legitimate he really is. Let me tell you this, if he needed to run a mile and a half or even 1 and 3/4 miles, he would do whatever it took to win. I think he has the goods to be a champion sire. Only time will tell.

splitsof12 24 Dec 2012 11:40 PM

What I think is that it's a big mistake to take Danedream off the track, she has so much more to give racing. Fabulous little mare, such a shame. I don't believe great horses always produce great horses, it's been proven not to be the case time and time again. Retiring the Dane shatters the Dream.

ksweatman 26 Dec 2012 1:12 PM

As we can see quite clearly there is still a lot of doubters about just how good a racehorse Frankel really was.

So let us make no mistake about it this horse is up there with the very best of them because he done everything so

effortlessly in 14 starts at the racetrack at the highest

level in most of those races.No one knows if he can carry

that success on as a stallion but despite the close inbreeding to Danedream who can blame the connections for wanting to send her to Frankel.

John T 28 Dec 2012 10:33 PM

Not infrequently a horse is hailed as a champion, when later evidence shows him to have been far removed from championship class. That is why, from the aspect of the breed itself, racing horses beyond the age of three is so important it enables an accurate measure to be taken of merit of different generations.

Imho, Frankel will be bred to the best mares money can buy and his fillies will become the

stars and he will become a broodmare sire. This pattern has been seen before. Does Secretariat come to mind.

Obmar 29 Dec 2012 7:46 PM

Obmar

You start out well by saying racing horses beyond the age

of three is so important but then you make an absoulute shambles of what you are saying''Does Secretariat Come To

Mind''Have you forgotton already that Secretariat just like

the great Man,O War never raced beyond three?.Let us mention

three great Anerican racehorses who did grace the turf at four just like Frankel,Nashua,Native Dancer,and Swaps.The racehorses that those three stallions alone who raced at four went on to sire would make your hair stand on end.

John T 29 Dec 2012 10:34 PM

John T, You are correct. For some reason I had Frankel ending

his racing career at 3.

Obmar 30 Dec 2012 9:11 AM

horseman beware

come may be looking for Scepter's Way debut

son of Tinner's Way, G-son to Secretariat and Spend A Buck

Sceptersway 06 Jan 2013 8:32 PM

I think I would just go to Galileo first up, money not an issue and the Galileo cross to anything Danehill works!

We have pretty new sire in Ireland, Big Bad Bob and he has fantastic numbers from pretty much cheap and few mares.  What would you breed a Big Bad Bob filly to in Europe?  You have way more experience of this line in the States?  

John Wells 24 Jan 2013 9:22 AM

Danedream is now in foal to Frankel. You can bet because of the inbreeding this foal is about to become the most talked about offspring for quite sometime.

John T 23 Mar 2013 9:38 PM

This mating combines some of the bluest German blood, as well. Galileos motherline comes from the successful damline of Alegretta. Danedream is out of Danedrop by Surumu, sire of Animal Kingdoms damsire, Acatenango. Surumu is also damsire of Monsun.

Mountaingirl 01 Apr 2013 9:03 AM

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