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VIDEO: Key Ancestors Report Strategies with Alan Porter

TrueNicks' Ian Tapp sits down with Alan Porter, the creator of the TrueNicks rating, to discuss strategies and commercial considerations for using the new Key Ancestors Report. Up for discussion is Oregon Lady (click for report), a graded stakes-winning Shamardal mare who recently sold for $475,000 at Keeneland January in foal to Elusive Quality (TrueNicks,SRO).


Oregon Lady is from the Storm Cat sire line, and Storm Cat also comes back as a positive ancestor to seek out in potential stallions. Alan pointed out that even though a stallion's Key Ancestor Score may be quite high, a low TrueNicks rating can caution you against a statistically unsuccessful cross. In this case, the cross of Storm Cat line stallions over Storm Cat line mares rates D on TrueNicks.

The A.P. Indy sire line has been very successful when bred to mares related to Oregon Lady, meaning that several A.P. Indy line stallions will rate highly. Alan says the mare's commercial value and racing profile should dictate which stallion is chosen. For example, since Oregon Lady raced on turf and has a European pedigree, you may want to look for stallions that have international appeal.

Oregon Lady was purchased in foal to Elusive Quality, a son of Gone West, but Gone West rates as very negative ancestor for her. The mating also creates 2x3 inbreeding to Gone West. While Alan noted some commercial positives for the mating, he said he probably would not have chosen it for the mare's first mating.

Proven international sire Lonhro (AUS) (TrueNicks,SRO) could be an intriguing mate for Oregon Lady, but there isn't much data to support the decision. With a TrueNicks No Rating (not enough starters or stakes winners on the cross to calculate a rating) and a neutral Key Ancestor Score, Alan said his tendency is to go with other alternatives rather than an unknown cross.

Ultimately, Alan's recommendation for Oregon Lady is the stallion Arch (TrueNicks,SRO). Not only does Arch rank #1 by Key Ancestor Score, but he has a strong nick (TrueNicks A++), physical match, ability to sire turf runners, and international appeal.

MORE VIDEO: TrueNicks' Byron Rogers and Ian Tapp explain the Key Ancestors Report.

Key Ancestors Report with Analysis $300

The Key Ancestors Report with Analysis is the most comprehensive report available to analyze your mare's pedigree. In addition to the Key Ancestors Report itself—which includes the top horses produced from related mares and the top 15 most positive and negative ancestors—this report adds additional research tools: a catalog-style pedigree for your mare, Key Ancestor Scores and summaries of up to 50 potential stallions, and TrueNicks Enhanced Reports for each hypothetical mating. The report includes:


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10 Comments:

Alan what do you think of golden soul for the derby by perfect soul i think the only saddlers well how was a graded stakes who 1 on  dirt not a  being surprise being out of a secretariat mare out of a mare by another triple crown wnr all that over a mr. p mare rated a++ out of a silver hawk graded wnr.golden soul developed quick 2nd n 1st @ cd by head @ a mile then 1st by 7 @8.5@ cd no pace n lecomte an he was last the farther the better an never been on turf all dirt mr p

ribots funnycide 11 Feb 2013 11:21 PM

actually perfect soul only ran on turf,but has several dirt wnrs out of mares by sons of Mr. P. golden soul may be only horse out of mare by Mr. P himself. Thx

ribots funnycide 12 Feb 2013 8:34 AM

Hi Guys,

I'm glad you chose Oregon Lady for use as example, because it identified for me some areas of misconception. So, here we go again-I thought I had it all grasped, but now see I hadn't...My question deals with Dam Relatedness to Subject Mare as it relates to Ancestor Contribution and Ancestor Score. As example, let's say that there's an accross the board low level of relatedness (to subject mare) among your selected group of related mares. Would this fact factor into your scores for Ancestor Contribution and Ancestor Score, or are these scores independent of the % of relatedness the group of related mares had to the subject mare?  

sceptre 12 Feb 2013 9:40 PM

Hi sceptre,

Yes, if the related mares are overall less related to the subject mare, then the Ancestor Contributions will be lower.

The relatedness of the mare and generational distance are what determines the Ancestor Contribution. For ancestors appearing in the sires of starters produced from a mare that is 10% related to the subject mare, the scores are multiplied by 10%. For a mare that is 20% related to the subject mare, the scores are multiplied by 20%. This way, more related mares have a greater impact on the Ancestor Scores.

Ian Tapp 13 Feb 2013 1:37 PM

Hi Guys,

Thanks for this video. After i watch the video i download your sample which perfect explanations for breeders.

I am from Turkey. I lived 4 years in TX and 5 months NY at 2012. I am back my country and try to succesful horse business. When i read your report about Oregon Lady which i found one missing information about Turkish horse name is BEKMEZBEY(Perfect Storm-Power Cat/Mountain Cat) this horse 7 times run won 6 times and grade 1 Turkish Gran Criterium, GRade II Sakarya Stakes, GRade II International Queen Elizabeth.II, and unname GR III races in Turkey. I hope maybe it will be help your TrueNicks system. If you want to know anythings about Turkish races you can send me email at anytime. probably i will be in KY for watch Run for Roses race and Belmont Stakes. I have one mare who believed to preganet Include hoping deliver baby second week of April name is PEACHEZ'N'KREME also. I bought last November Keeneland sales hip 1255

kadir 13 Feb 2013 6:04 PM

I think that congrats & Malibu moon would fit perfectly on top of storm cat & the mr. Prospector line.

Beetle 15 Feb 2013 10:39 AM

Hi Kadir,

Glad to hear you liked the video. Regarding Bekmezbey, he is in The Jockey Club database and therefore TrueNicks reports, but according to The Jockey Club his stakes wins are non-blacktype. Nevertheless, he was obviously a top class runner and is certainly one of the main successes so far for the broad Storm Cat/Storm Cat cross.

Ian Tapp 15 Feb 2013 1:46 PM

what about nicking alphabet soup with gone west mare? and Alphabet Soup with an Imperial Falcon mare? Got a A++ on the first mare and A on the second one - just curious?

thanks

susan 20 Feb 2013 12:34 PM

Hi Susan,

It's hard to say without running the actual reports, as each report will vary according to the mare's female side (each Gone West or Imperial Falcon mare will have a unique set of ancestors based on her own pedigree).

However, Alphabet Soup has a good record as an outcross stallion with the entire Northern Dancer line, hence the TrueNicks "A" rating, and the Cozzene sire line has a very good record with Gone West mares, hence the "A++".

Judging by a couple reports I've seen for mares with similar backgrounds to Imperial Falcon, Prince John and Sir Gaylord could be positive ancestors, which are both in Alphabet Soup via Cozzene.

Ian Tapp 20 Feb 2013 3:27 PM

Are you doing any evaluation of performance quarter horses or just thoroughbred racing lines?

Loren 13 Feb 2014 10:48 AM

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