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Kentucky Derby 140 Pedigrees Examined

Depending on the pace of the race, running out the 10 furlongs of the Kentucky Derby is as much about class as it is about pedigree. As they approach the final furlong marker it is invariably a time where each of the horses start to wonder who their parents are, and if they deserve to find the line in the run to the wire.

Alan Porter has noted on occasions in this blog that on the TrueNicks Enhanced Report, the difference between the average winning distance and the average distance raced by horses bred on the cross can often give a pointer to the ability for the horse to "outrun its pedigree" in terms of distance. When a horse has a AWD greater than its ADR for horses bred on the cross, they generally run further than their pedigree suggests, but that must be kept in context of the 10 furlongs of the Kentucky Derby and the average winning distances that the cross is generating.

Last year our own Ian Tapp tipped the stone cold trifecta in the comments section with his note "Top 3 that will love the distance: Revolutionary, Golden Soul, Orb" in our review of the pedigrees for the 139th Kentucky Derby. This year he is under pressure do do the same!

Here are the complimentary TrueNicks Enhanced Reports for each entrant in post position order. Click on their name or rating to get their Enhanced Report.

PP Name M/L Sire Progeny AWD Broodmare Sire Progeny AWD
Cross AWD
Cross ADR
AWD>ADR
TrueNicks
1 Vicar's in Trouble
20-1 6.64 f 6.80 f
7.03 f
6.98 f
YES
A++
2 Harry's Holiday
50-1 7.07 f
6.38 f
6.56 f
7.28 f

A++
3 Uncle Sigh 30-1 6.61 f
7.07f 6.99 f
6.83 f
YES
A++
4 Danza 8-1 6.50 f
6.91 f
7.53 f
7.48 f
YES
A
5 California Chrome
5/2 6.44 f
6.48 f
6.57 f
6.61 f

A
6 Samraat 15-1 6.74 f
6.44 f
7.21 f
7.13 f
YES
A++
7 We Miss Artie
50-1 6.85 f
7.07 f
6.89 f
7.09 f

B+
8 General a Rod
15-1 6.56 f
7.62 f
7.51 f
7.36 f
YES
A++
9 Vinceremos 30-1 7.10 f 6.54 f
8.09 f
8.00 f
YES
A++
10 Wildcat Red
15-1 6..50 f
7.19 f
6.46 f
6.60 f

B+
12 Dance With Fate 20-1 6.43 f
6.73 f
6.98 f
7.03 f

D
13 Chitu 20-1 6.30 f
7.48 f
7.71 f
7.92 f

C
14 Medal Count
20-1 9.13 f
6.80 f
8.43 f
9.25 f

A++
15 Tapiture 8-1 7.36 f
6.49 f
6.74 f
6.78 f

A++
16 Intense Holiday
8-1 7.07 f
6.80 f
7.66 f
7.04 f
YES A++
17 Commanding Curve
50-1 6.98 f
6.48 f
7.07 f
7.02 f
YES
B
18 Candy Boy
15-1 6.89 f
6.17 f
6.75 f
6.86 f

A++
19 Ride On Curlin
15-1 7.57 f
7.03 f
7.03 f
7.35 f

A++
20 Wicked Strong
6-1 6.96 f
6.73 f
8.27 f
7.92 f
YES
A++
21 Pablo Del Monte
50-1 8.54 f
5.5 f
6.10 f
6.18 f

A+

Taking the horses bred on crosses with an AWD greater than 7.5 furlongs and an AWD greater than the ADR, we are left with five colts: Danza, General A Rod, Vinceremos, Intense Holiday, and Wicked Strong. Probably a good value trifecta box to leave out the favorite, California Chrome, on the chance that he's the next Mister Frisky or gets a bad trip.

So who do you like (and why) for this 140th Run for the Roses?

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