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Graded Stakes Winners Fluctuate by Sire's Crop Year

Following on from the earlier post on the racing class of the dam, we decided to take a look at the fluctuation in graded/group stakes winners over the first eight crops of a stallion's career.

We took some 50 proven stallions and extracted out the number of graded stakes winners sired in each of their first eight crops. As you will note, they are not a random group of stallions but rather stallions that were in the top 10 of their season's first-crop sires list and managed to maintain themselves in the top 20 on the third-crop list. The data is from Northern Hemisphere crops only. Here is the raw data.

SireCrop 1Crop 2Crop 3Crop 4Crop 5Crop 6Crop 7Crop 8SUM
Alphabet Soup6211000111
Arch3212203114
Awesome Again6344123225
Broken Vow2322412218
City Zip1213404015
Distorted Humor5323722630
Dixie Union2332521321
E Dubai4220110010
El Corredor322010008
Elusive Quality3500133217
Empire Maker5533821027
Exchange Rate211200219
Flatter231000107
Forest Wildcat3230131417
Forestry6220201215
Freud011131007
Fusaichi Pegasus3111211010
Giant's Causeway91363997763
Grand Slam4300421115
Harlan's Holiday4322154021
Hennessy4436151024
Include200151009
Indian Charlie1300131211
Johannesburg10334001122
Langfuhr1432311116
Lemon Drop Kid2533224324
Macho Uno3101420011
Malibu Moon1211633118
Maria's Mon3100453521
Mineshaft3133021013
Mizzen Mast2310202010
More Than Ready1203425320
Northern Afleet1110011510
Officer211030007
Orientate410100017
Point Given231001007
Posse301101006
Proud Citizen310040008
Pulpit2352432425
Sky Mesa2512011012
Smart Strike3453238230
Smoke Glacken1141012212
Street Cry10660460234
Successful Appeal3031203113
Tale of the Cat1801233220
Tiznow2751802227
Touch Gold4201210010
Unbridled's Song4111737327
War Chant3222111012
Yes It's True3222111012
          
Sum1591389372128869072838
Average3.182.761.861.442.561.721.801.4416.76
         2.10

On average these stallions sired 16.76 graded stakes winners over the eight crops, which averages out at 2.10 per crop. What is interesting is that crops one, two, and five had significantly more graded stakes winners than the average across all years. The fifth crop is the most interesting in that the foals out of this crop are put in foal while the stallion is having his first runners in their classic year. This indicates that graded stakes winner production is significantly affected by the number and quality of mares bred.

As the fifth crop doesn't see a sale ring until the stallion's oldest are 5-year-olds, there may be an interesting opportunity for yearling buyers to capitalize on this "bounce" that stallions get, especially as their third and fourth crops may prove less than stellar on the racetrack, thus impacting their overall commercial appeal.

Sires this year with their fifth crops hitting the sale ring in North America include Street Sense (TrueNicks), Hard Spun (TrueNicks), Discreet Cat (TrueNicks), Scat Daddy (TrueNicks), and English Channel (TrueNicks).

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