Monday, Oaklawn, Race 8, Local Post Time 4:38pm CT The Smarty Jones Stakes , 1 mile, Dirt, 3YO By Douglas Salvatore The TimeformUS Pace Projector indicates this year’s edition of the Smarty Jones Stakes will be run at a fast and contested pace. • TimeformUS PPs for the Smarty Jones Stakes • A Special Offer on Unlimited PPs for Bloodhorse Readers That makes #2 Whyruawesome (12/1 Morning Line) the horse...
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It's rare that I make a full (every entry) fair odds analysis for a race outside a seven-figure Grade 1 race, but I felt compelled to do so for the Jerome Stakes on Saturday at Aqueduct (click for FREE Brisnet.com Ultimate PPs ) because of the presence of a clear favorite/most likely winner who doesn't have to win. In addition to the $200,000 purse, at stake in this stakes for three-year-olds is 17...
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Although wagering on horse racing with any seriousness is better viewed as one, long grind versus a day-to-day/week-to-week/month-to-month/year-to-year venture, there's just something about turning the page that makes us want to check the scoreboard. And to be honest, I'm getting blown out this year. To finish in the black for 2013 would require a comeback on par with Auburn's field goal return against...
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Personally, I enjoy playing the inner meet. Horses more easily find their right conditions, and the form holds up....
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Saturday Betfair Hollywood Park, Race 6, Local Post Time 3:04pm PT The G1 Hollywood Starlet Stakes , 1 and 1/16 Miles, Fillies, 2YO, Synth By Justin Finch The Grade 1 Hollywood Starlet has eight two-year-old fillies and almost as many question marks. There have been stronger editions of this race, to be sure, but this edition, the final one, stands tall in the puzzle department, and that provides some...
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Sunday Betfair Hollywood Park, Race 8, Local Post Time 4:07pm PT The G1 Matriarch Stakes , 1 Mile, Fillies and Mares, 3+, Turf By Justin Finch The final Matriarch, like so many before it, will be a good one. The nine-horse field contains four Grade 1 winners and is loaded with accomplished fillies and mares. At time of writing, the forecast is that the rain that has been falling on Hollywood Park will...
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Saturday Delta Downs, Race 7, Local Post Time 4:15 pm CST The G3 Delta Downs Jackpot , 1 and 1/16 Miles, 2YO, Dirt By Douglas Salvatore After many years of disappointing editions, everything finally clicked for the Delta Jackpot last year. The 2012 edition of this race was won in brilliant front-running fashion by Goldencents. He defeated a very respectable field that included Itsmyluckyday and Mylute...
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Saturday Aqueduct, Race 6, Local Post Time 2:45 pm ET The Summer Secretary S ., 1 and 1/16 Miles, 3YO Fillies, Turf By Douglas Salvatore The $100,000 Summer Secretary has attracted a strong field of 13 three-year-old fillies, and the TimeformUS Pace Projector indicates that it will be run at a fast and contested early pace. • TimeformUS PPs for the Summer Secretary • A Special Offer on Unlimited PPs...
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One of my cause célèbre is to rally against the need to PICK A WINNER in important races. Any horse is capable of winning. A handicapper's job is to pick winners, but a horse player's job is to balance the chances of a win with the odds and bankroll. But it's Breeders' Cup Saturday, and just as everyone wants to know your Kentucky Derby pick, there's definitely an onus to be able to pick one horse...
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If you're a multi-race player then the most important race on Friday isn't a Breeders' Cup race but the Grade 2 Twilight Derby for three-year-olds on the turf. Carded as the fifth race of the 11-race card, the Twilight Derby ends the Pick 5, starts the Pick 6, is the third leg of the early Pick 4, is part of three rolling Pick 3s, and a pair of rolling doubles. Getting this race wrong could knock you...
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If you're playing the Stars of Tomorrow cards on Sunday at either Belmont Park or Churchill Downs then the following hyperlinked information from Brisnet.com is required for handicapping all the debut runners, surface switches, and stretch outs common among two-year-old racing: Ultimate PPs , American Produce Records (APR) Online , and Bruno With The Works . Together, they give you the clearest picture...
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Belmont, Race 8, Local Post Time 4:34 pm ET The G3 Bold Ruler H. , 7F, Dirt, 3+ By Douglas Salvatore The TimeformUS Pace Projector indicates that this race will be run at a moderate pace that should favor horses who are projected to be on or near the early lead. This bodes very well for 9/5 morning line favorite Strapping Groom and the improving three-year-old Clearly Now, who is a far more generous...
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With the release of TimeformUS Advance Breeders' Cup PPs , you can easily see which horse owns the best last-out TimeformUS speed figure in each Breeders' Cup race. We've asked TimeformUS Chief Figure Maker Craig Milkowski to describe the circumstances in which these top last-out figures were run. For Breeders’ Cup Advance Past Performances – complete with best-in-class foreign running lines and European...
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Keeneland, Race 9, Local Post Time 5:23 pm ET The G2 Raven Run , 7F, Synth, 3YO Fillies By Robert Finnegan Saturday's Grade II Raven Run at Keeneland features an overflow field of three-year-old fillies running seven furlongs on the Polytrack. The morning line 7-2 favorite is the Todd Pletcher-trained Silsita. Handicappers have no choice but to take Pletcher's horses seriously whenever they enter the...
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In a rare moment of social media accord, it was mostly agreed upon that the Breeders' Cup Classic fields from either 1998 or 2004 were the best not only for the Western Hemisphere's richest race but also in the history of the North American Turf ! I'll muddy the waters a little bit and include 2009 in the discussion because of the international flavor of that event and because the most popular horse...
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One of my absolute favorite races of all time is the 2011 Queen Elizabeth II Challenge Cup Stakes because it showed the value of speed figures--even on turf. For past performances and selections of this year's QE2 and all the races at Keeneland, visit the Blood Horse shop . The QE2 (on this side of the pond) is a 1 1/8-mile turf race for three-year-old fillies, and Winter Memories entered the 2011...
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An even money shot who you like but don't love can be a daunting part of any Pick 4 sequence. Winning 50% of the time means they lose 50% of the time, too. If you have two such horses in a sequence then it's as likely that they both lose than both win (25%, 3-to-1 either way). So how do you make money in this scenario? By letting a track's wagering menu work for you. For Past Performances of all races...
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I've lamented before about the horseplayer compulsion to pick THE winner, and nothing upsets that need more than coupled entries. The Brisnet.com Ultimate Past Performances now available for Belmont Park this weekend include program numbers and morning line to help you navigate this situation. When it comes to the pari-mutuel pool, though, you don't get extra credit for saying Real Solution will win...
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This scene from The Simpsons came to mind when considering whether to single Wise Dan in the $200,000 guaranteed Pick 4 on Sunday at Woodbine , or go against him in the Ricoh Woodbine Mile. Seeing the reigning Horse of the Year win his ninth consecutive race would "please the gentleman" as the shopkeep says in the video above, but he would do so at no more than his morning line odds of 2-to-5 and maybe...
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Sunday, Woodbine, Race 10, Scheduled Post Time 5:38pm ET The G1 Woodbine Mile , Turf, 1 Mile, Three-and-up By Douglas Salvatore Even though the Woodbine Mile might be the least attractive betting race on Sunday's entire card, it will be the focus for us because of the celebrity of Wise Dan. In plain English, Wise Dan should dominate this group. In recent races, he's been victimized by heavy weight...
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Pace handicapping is actually a two-step process. The question is not "How fast will they go," but (in the case of front runners), "How fast can this horse go and still win?" "A lot of pace in the race" doesn't set the race up for a closer if three front runners are gassed after a :22 first quarter and :45 half but a fourth horse is able to run those fractions and still come home in :24 for 1:09 for...
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The Travers Stakes is one of those races where there is an onus to have A PICK. When someone asks you, "Who is going to win the Grade 1, $1-million Travers Stakes on Saturday at historic Saratoga Race Course?" The convention is that you have a one-horse answer. I.e. hedging for value or pace or other bet types (e.g. "I'm playing an exacta with...") is not allowed. It's also frowned upon to say, "Decide...
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The Grade 1 TVG Pacific Classic Stakes, Del Mar, Polytrack, Three-and-Up, One Mile and One Quarter Local Post Time - 5:10pm PT Sunday Get Pacific Classic Day PPs at TimeformUS The Pacific Classic has 13 entrants this year and no shortage of long resumes and good recent form. Richard's Kid has already won this race twice and he signalled that he's back in form by winning the Grade 3 Cougar II over this...
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We are introducing new content to the "Unlocking Winners" blog from handicappers with TimeformUS, a new digital past performance service that launched July 17 . TimeformUS will be offering insight to select weekend stakes and provide updates on the blog as track conditions and/or horses entered change, so check in regularly throughout the weekend for updates. And as always, please add your comments...
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A value approach to maiden claimers...
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