One of my cause célèbre is to rally against the need to PICK A WINNER in important races. Any horse is capable of winning. A handicapper's job is to pick winners, but a horse player's job is to balance the chances of a win with the odds and bankroll. But it's Breeders' Cup Saturday, and just as everyone wants to know your Kentucky Derby pick, there's definitely an onus to be able to pick one horse...
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Santa Anita Friday, Race 10, Local Post Time 4:35 pm PT The G1 Breeders' Cup Distaff , 1 and 1/8 Miles, Dirt, F&M, 3+ By Robert Finnegan Selections : 1) #4 Royal Delta 2) #5 Beholder 3) #6 Princess of Sylmar - Get Breeders' Cup PPs for $1.50 per day - For selections, analysis, and past performances for all 14 Breeders' Cup races, get the TimeformUS Breeders' Cup Package The Breeders' Cup Distaff...
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If you're a multi-race player then the most important race on Friday isn't a Breeders' Cup race but the Grade 2 Twilight Derby for three-year-olds on the turf. Carded as the fifth race of the 11-race card, the Twilight Derby ends the Pick 5, starts the Pick 6, is the third leg of the early Pick 4, is part of three rolling Pick 3s, and a pair of rolling doubles. Getting this race wrong could knock you...
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If you're playing the Stars of Tomorrow cards on Sunday at either Belmont Park or Churchill Downs then the following hyperlinked information from Brisnet.com is required for handicapping all the debut runners, surface switches, and stretch outs common among two-year-old racing: Ultimate PPs , American Produce Records (APR) Online , and Bruno With The Works . Together, they give you the clearest picture...
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Belmont, Race 8, Local Post Time 4:34 pm ET The G3 Bold Ruler H. , 7F, Dirt, 3+ By Douglas Salvatore The TimeformUS Pace Projector indicates that this race will be run at a moderate pace that should favor horses who are projected to be on or near the early lead. This bodes very well for 9/5 morning line favorite Strapping Groom and the improving three-year-old Clearly Now, who is a far more generous...
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With the release of TimeformUS Advance Breeders' Cup PPs , you can easily see which horse owns the best last-out TimeformUS speed figure in each Breeders' Cup race. We've asked TimeformUS Chief Figure Maker Craig Milkowski to describe the circumstances in which these top last-out figures were run. For Breeders’ Cup Advance Past Performances – complete with best-in-class foreign running lines and European...
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Keeneland, Race 9, Local Post Time 5:23 pm ET The G2 Raven Run , 7F, Synth, 3YO Fillies By Robert Finnegan Saturday's Grade II Raven Run at Keeneland features an overflow field of three-year-old fillies running seven furlongs on the Polytrack. The morning line 7-2 favorite is the Todd Pletcher-trained Silsita. Handicappers have no choice but to take Pletcher's horses seriously whenever they enter the...
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In a rare moment of social media accord, it was mostly agreed upon that the Breeders' Cup Classic fields from either 1998 or 2004 were the best not only for the Western Hemisphere's richest race but also in the history of the North American Turf ! I'll muddy the waters a little bit and include 2009 in the discussion because of the international flavor of that event and because the most popular horse...
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One of my absolute favorite races of all time is the 2011 Queen Elizabeth II Challenge Cup Stakes because it showed the value of speed figures--even on turf. For past performances and selections of this year's QE2 and all the races at Keeneland, visit the Blood Horse shop . The QE2 (on this side of the pond) is a 1 1/8-mile turf race for three-year-old fillies, and Winter Memories entered the 2011...
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Keeneland, Race 9, Local Post Time 5:21 pm ET The G1 Queen Elizabeth II Challenge Cup , 1 1/8 Miles, Turf, 3YO Fillies By Douglas Salvatore It's very frustrating when the 9/5 morning line favorite in a race has no significant advantage on speed figures, but you still can't muster up the courage to oppose her. Alterite just missed twice at the Group 1 level, by margins of only a nose and a head, back...
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An even money shot who you like but don't love can be a daunting part of any Pick 4 sequence. Winning 50% of the time means they lose 50% of the time, too. If you have two such horses in a sequence then it's as likely that they both lose than both win (25%, 3-to-1 either way). So how do you make money in this scenario? By letting a track's wagering menu work for you. For Past Performances of all races...
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Keeneland, Race 8, Local Post Time 4:49 pm ET The G1 Juddmonte Spinster , 1 1/8 Mile, F/M, 3+, Polytrack By Douglas Salvatore The Keeneland Polytrack has been notorious for upsets in stakes races. Yesterday, Wise Dan and Groupie Doll were its two latest victims, even though they've had success over the surface in the past. It's always tempting to hunt for value, especially when the statistics for post...
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I've lamented before about the horseplayer compulsion to pick THE winner, and nothing upsets that need more than coupled entries. The Brisnet.com Ultimate Past Performances now available for Belmont Park this weekend include program numbers and morning line to help you navigate this situation. When it comes to the pari-mutuel pool, though, you don't get extra credit for saying Real Solution will win...
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Belmont, Race 10, Local Post Time 5:49 pm ET The G1 Jockey Club Gold Cup , 1 and 1/4 Miles, 3+, Dirt By Douglas Salvatore The Jockey Club Gold Cup is unquestionably the main attraction of this year's Super Saturday card at Belmont Park. The eventual Breeders' Cup Classic winner has used the Jockey Club Gold Cup as his final prep for each of the last three years, and what makes this race all the more...
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When handicappers note that "there is a lot of speed in this race" what they most typically mean is that there are a lot of front-running types--that is a horse who likes to race on or near the front end. It is folly to think that a race loaded with front runners can't be won by a front runner. It's only an issue if those dynamics make logical contenders go faster than is prudent. The Gallant Bob Stakes...
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Saturday, Parx, Race 11, Scheduled Local Post Time 5:45 pm ET The G2 Pennsylvania Derby , 1 and 1/8 Miles, Dirt, 3-year-olds By Douglas Salvatore Do your best Dr. Evil impersonation because one million dollars is on the line in the Pennsylvania Derby at slots-fueled Parx. The 2/1 morning line favorite, Will Take Charge , and the 5/2 morning line second choice, Moreno , were separated by only a nose...
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This scene from The Simpsons came to mind when considering whether to single Wise Dan in the $200,000 guaranteed Pick 4 on Sunday at Woodbine , or go against him in the Ricoh Woodbine Mile. Seeing the reigning Horse of the Year win his ninth consecutive race would "please the gentleman" as the shopkeep says in the video above, but he would do so at no more than his morning line odds of 2-to-5 and maybe...
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Sunday, Woodbine, Race 10, Scheduled Post Time 5:38pm ET The G1 Woodbine Mile , Turf, 1 Mile, Three-and-up By Douglas Salvatore Even though the Woodbine Mile might be the least attractive betting race on Sunday's entire card, it will be the focus for us because of the celebrity of Wise Dan. In plain English, Wise Dan should dominate this group. In recent races, he's been victimized by heavy weight...
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The Grade 2 Bowling Green Handicap, Saturday at Belmont (Race 8), Inner Turf, Three-Year Olds and Up, One Mile and One Quarter Get Free PP's for the Bowling Green Handicap The hard-hitting six-year-old Boisterous has been installed as the 7/5 morning line favorite even though he finished a disappointing eighth as the 9/5 favorite in the Sword Dancer just three weeks ago. Much has been made of Boisterous...
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The Grade 1 Spinaway Stakes, Sunday, Saratoga, Two-Year Olds, Main Track, Seven Furlongs Scheduled Post Time: 5:45 PM EDT Get free PP's for the Spinaway Five different horses in today's Spinaway have scored wire-to-wire victories at sprint distances shorter than today's seven furlong distance. The "speed of the speed" is unquestionably Brazen Persuasion (5-1 morning line) from her rail post. She also...
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Pace handicapping is actually a two-step process. The question is not "How fast will they go," but (in the case of front runners), "How fast can this horse go and still win?" "A lot of pace in the race" doesn't set the race up for a closer if three front runners are gassed after a :22 first quarter and :45 half but a fourth horse is able to run those fractions and still come home in :24 for 1:09 for...
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The Travers Stakes is one of those races where there is an onus to have A PICK. When someone asks you, "Who is going to win the Grade 1, $1-million Travers Stakes on Saturday at historic Saratoga Race Course?" The convention is that you have a one-horse answer. I.e. hedging for value or pace or other bet types (e.g. "I'm playing an exacta with...") is not allowed. It's also frowned upon to say, "Decide...
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The Grade 1 TVG Pacific Classic Stakes, Del Mar, Polytrack, Three-and-Up, One Mile and One Quarter Local Post Time - 5:10pm PT Sunday Get Pacific Classic Day PPs at TimeformUS The Pacific Classic has 13 entrants this year and no shortage of long resumes and good recent form. Richard's Kid has already won this race twice and he signalled that he's back in form by winning the Grade 3 Cougar II over this...
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The Grade 2 Woodford Reserve Lake Placid Stakes, Saratoga, Inner Turf, Three-Year Old Fillies, One Mile and One Eighth Caroline Thomas (12-1) is a deep closer who has been subjected to one extremely slow pace after another. (Note that fractions rated to be particularly slow are shown in blue.) She also had some trouble at the start in her last which is not noted in the shorter chart comments you see...
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Sunday, Saratoga, Race 10, 5:45 PM EDT The Grade 2 Saratoga Special, Six and a Half Furlongs, Two-Year Olds And Up, Main Track Foal crop sizes have gotten smaller since the mid 1980s, and as a consequence, trainers have become much more patient in their handling of juveniles. When City Zip won the 2000 edition of the Saratoga Special, he did it while making the seventh start of his career. Fast-forward...
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