Aqueduct cancelled today (Wednesday, November 27), which is good news for all the other tracks running because some of the $6-million in handle Aqueduct would have done today (based on last year's Thanksgiving Eve total) will end up in other pools. That includes my money, as a $2,990 Pick 4 carryover at Portland Meadows and a five-stakes program at Zia Park featuring the $300,000 Zia Oaks & $200...
Read More
Saturday Delta Downs, Race 7, Local Post Time 4:15 pm CST The G3 Delta Downs Jackpot , 1 and 1/16 Miles, 2YO, Dirt By Douglas Salvatore After many years of disappointing editions, everything finally clicked for the Delta Jackpot last year. The 2012 edition of this race was won in brilliant front-running fashion by Goldencents. He defeated a very respectable field that included Itsmyluckyday and Mylute...
Read More
Saturday Aqueduct, Race 7, Local Post Time 3:14 pm ET The G3 Red Smith , 1 and 3/8 Miles, 3YO+, Turf By Douglas Salvatore With a field of 13 horses assembled, the Red Smith Handicap is an extremely attractive betting race. The 11-furlong distance means that this race will be contested around three turns, with a fairly short run into the first turn, which means post positions are far more important...
Read More
There are a lot of angles to use when handicapping a horse race: trainer angles, jockey angles, pedigree angles, track surface plays, shippers, bias statistics, and speed figure patterns are some of the more popular, but chances are, if it's in the past performances then someone somewhere has a betting angle for it. In many ways, that was the impetus for Gary Hall to develop his ALL-Ways software ...
Read More
Saturday Aqueduct, Race 6, Local Post Time 2:45 pm ET The Summer Secretary S ., 1 and 1/16 Miles, 3YO Fillies, Turf By Douglas Salvatore The $100,000 Summer Secretary has attracted a strong field of 13 three-year-old fillies, and the TimeformUS Pace Projector indicates that it will be run at a fast and contested early pace. • TimeformUS PPs for the Summer Secretary • A Special Offer on Unlimited PPs...
Read More
One of my cause célèbre is to rally against the need to PICK A WINNER in important races. Any horse is capable of winning. A handicapper's job is to pick winners, but a horse player's job is to balance the chances of a win with the odds and bankroll. But it's Breeders' Cup Saturday, and just as everyone wants to know your Kentucky Derby pick, there's definitely an onus to be able to pick one horse...
Read More
Santa Anita Friday, Race 10, Local Post Time 4:35 pm PT The G1 Breeders' Cup Distaff , 1 and 1/8 Miles, Dirt, F&M, 3+ By Robert Finnegan Selections : 1) #4 Royal Delta 2) #5 Beholder 3) #6 Princess of Sylmar - Get Breeders' Cup PPs for $1.50 per day - For selections, analysis, and past performances for all 14 Breeders' Cup races, get the TimeformUS Breeders' Cup Package The Breeders' Cup Distaff...
Read More
If you're a multi-race player then the most important race on Friday isn't a Breeders' Cup race but the Grade 2 Twilight Derby for three-year-olds on the turf. Carded as the fifth race of the 11-race card, the Twilight Derby ends the Pick 5, starts the Pick 6, is the third leg of the early Pick 4, is part of three rolling Pick 3s, and a pair of rolling doubles. Getting this race wrong could knock you...
Read More
If you're playing the Stars of Tomorrow cards on Sunday at either Belmont Park or Churchill Downs then the following hyperlinked information from Brisnet.com is required for handicapping all the debut runners, surface switches, and stretch outs common among two-year-old racing: Ultimate PPs , American Produce Records (APR) Online , and Bruno With The Works . Together, they give you the clearest picture...
Read More
Belmont, Race 8, Local Post Time 4:34 pm ET The G3 Bold Ruler H. , 7F, Dirt, 3+ By Douglas Salvatore The TimeformUS Pace Projector indicates that this race will be run at a moderate pace that should favor horses who are projected to be on or near the early lead. This bodes very well for 9/5 morning line favorite Strapping Groom and the improving three-year-old Clearly Now, who is a far more generous...
Read More
With the release of TimeformUS Advance Breeders' Cup PPs , you can easily see which horse owns the best last-out TimeformUS speed figure in each Breeders' Cup race. We've asked TimeformUS Chief Figure Maker Craig Milkowski to describe the circumstances in which these top last-out figures were run. For Breeders’ Cup Advance Past Performances – complete with best-in-class foreign running lines and European...
Read More
Keeneland, Race 9, Local Post Time 5:23 pm ET The G2 Raven Run , 7F, Synth, 3YO Fillies By Robert Finnegan Saturday's Grade II Raven Run at Keeneland features an overflow field of three-year-old fillies running seven furlongs on the Polytrack. The morning line 7-2 favorite is the Todd Pletcher-trained Silsita. Handicappers have no choice but to take Pletcher's horses seriously whenever they enter the...
Read More
In a rare moment of social media accord, it was mostly agreed upon that the Breeders' Cup Classic fields from either 1998 or 2004 were the best not only for the Western Hemisphere's richest race but also in the history of the North American Turf ! I'll muddy the waters a little bit and include 2009 in the discussion because of the international flavor of that event and because the most popular horse...
Read More
One of my absolute favorite races of all time is the 2011 Queen Elizabeth II Challenge Cup Stakes because it showed the value of speed figures--even on turf. For past performances and selections of this year's QE2 and all the races at Keeneland, visit the Blood Horse shop . The QE2 (on this side of the pond) is a 1 1/8-mile turf race for three-year-old fillies, and Winter Memories entered the 2011...
Read More
Keeneland, Race 9, Local Post Time 5:21 pm ET The G1 Queen Elizabeth II Challenge Cup , 1 1/8 Miles, Turf, 3YO Fillies By Douglas Salvatore It's very frustrating when the 9/5 morning line favorite in a race has no significant advantage on speed figures, but you still can't muster up the courage to oppose her. Alterite just missed twice at the Group 1 level, by margins of only a nose and a head, back...
Read More
An even money shot who you like but don't love can be a daunting part of any Pick 4 sequence. Winning 50% of the time means they lose 50% of the time, too. If you have two such horses in a sequence then it's as likely that they both lose than both win (25%, 3-to-1 either way). So how do you make money in this scenario? By letting a track's wagering menu work for you. For Past Performances of all races...
Read More
Keeneland, Race 8, Local Post Time 4:49 pm ET The G1 Juddmonte Spinster , 1 1/8 Mile, F/M, 3+, Polytrack By Douglas Salvatore The Keeneland Polytrack has been notorious for upsets in stakes races. Yesterday, Wise Dan and Groupie Doll were its two latest victims, even though they've had success over the surface in the past. It's always tempting to hunt for value, especially when the statistics for post...
Read More
I've lamented before about the horseplayer compulsion to pick THE winner, and nothing upsets that need more than coupled entries. The Brisnet.com Ultimate Past Performances now available for Belmont Park this weekend include program numbers and morning line to help you navigate this situation. When it comes to the pari-mutuel pool, though, you don't get extra credit for saying Real Solution will win...
Read More
Belmont, Race 10, Local Post Time 5:49 pm ET The G1 Jockey Club Gold Cup , 1 and 1/4 Miles, 3+, Dirt By Douglas Salvatore The Jockey Club Gold Cup is unquestionably the main attraction of this year's Super Saturday card at Belmont Park. The eventual Breeders' Cup Classic winner has used the Jockey Club Gold Cup as his final prep for each of the last three years, and what makes this race all the more...
Read More
When handicappers note that "there is a lot of speed in this race" what they most typically mean is that there are a lot of front-running types--that is a horse who likes to race on or near the front end. It is folly to think that a race loaded with front runners can't be won by a front runner. It's only an issue if those dynamics make logical contenders go faster than is prudent. The Gallant Bob Stakes...
Read More
Saturday, Parx, Race 11, Scheduled Local Post Time 5:45 pm ET The G2 Pennsylvania Derby , 1 and 1/8 Miles, Dirt, 3-year-olds By Douglas Salvatore Do your best Dr. Evil impersonation because one million dollars is on the line in the Pennsylvania Derby at slots-fueled Parx. The 2/1 morning line favorite, Will Take Charge , and the 5/2 morning line second choice, Moreno , were separated by only a nose...
Read More
This scene from The Simpsons came to mind when considering whether to single Wise Dan in the $200,000 guaranteed Pick 4 on Sunday at Woodbine , or go against him in the Ricoh Woodbine Mile. Seeing the reigning Horse of the Year win his ninth consecutive race would "please the gentleman" as the shopkeep says in the video above, but he would do so at no more than his morning line odds of 2-to-5 and maybe...
Read More
Sunday, Woodbine, Race 10, Scheduled Post Time 5:38pm ET The G1 Woodbine Mile , Turf, 1 Mile, Three-and-up By Douglas Salvatore Even though the Woodbine Mile might be the least attractive betting race on Sunday's entire card, it will be the focus for us because of the celebrity of Wise Dan. In plain English, Wise Dan should dominate this group. In recent races, he's been victimized by heavy weight...
Read More
The Grade 2 Bowling Green Handicap, Saturday at Belmont (Race 8), Inner Turf, Three-Year Olds and Up, One Mile and One Quarter Get Free PP's for the Bowling Green Handicap The hard-hitting six-year-old Boisterous has been installed as the 7/5 morning line favorite even though he finished a disappointing eighth as the 9/5 favorite in the Sword Dancer just three weeks ago. Much has been made of Boisterous...
Read More
The Grade 1 Spinaway Stakes, Sunday, Saratoga, Two-Year Olds, Main Track, Seven Furlongs Scheduled Post Time: 5:45 PM EDT Get free PP's for the Spinaway Five different horses in today's Spinaway have scored wire-to-wire victories at sprint distances shorter than today's seven furlong distance. The "speed of the speed" is unquestionably Brazen Persuasion (5-1 morning line) from her rail post. She also...
Read More
