I've lamented before about the horseplayer compulsion to pick THE winner, and nothing upsets that need more than coupled entries. The Brisnet.com Ultimate Past Performances now available for Belmont Park this weekend include program numbers and morning line to help you navigate this situation. When it comes to the pari-mutuel pool, though, you don't get extra credit for saying Real Solution will win...
Read More
Belmont, Race 10, Local Post Time 5:49 pm ET The G1 Jockey Club Gold Cup , 1 and 1/4 Miles, 3+, Dirt By Douglas Salvatore The Jockey Club Gold Cup is unquestionably the main attraction of this year's Super Saturday card at Belmont Park. The eventual Breeders' Cup Classic winner has used the Jockey Club Gold Cup as his final prep for each of the last three years, and what makes this race all the more...
Read More
When handicappers note that "there is a lot of speed in this race" what they most typically mean is that there are a lot of front-running types--that is a horse who likes to race on or near the front end. It is folly to think that a race loaded with front runners can't be won by a front runner. It's only an issue if those dynamics make logical contenders go faster than is prudent. The Gallant Bob Stakes...
Read More
Saturday, Parx, Race 11, Scheduled Local Post Time 5:45 pm ET The G2 Pennsylvania Derby , 1 and 1/8 Miles, Dirt, 3-year-olds By Douglas Salvatore Do your best Dr. Evil impersonation because one million dollars is on the line in the Pennsylvania Derby at slots-fueled Parx. The 2/1 morning line favorite, Will Take Charge , and the 5/2 morning line second choice, Moreno , were separated by only a nose...
Read More
This scene from The Simpsons came to mind when considering whether to single Wise Dan in the $200,000 guaranteed Pick 4 on Sunday at Woodbine , or go against him in the Ricoh Woodbine Mile. Seeing the reigning Horse of the Year win his ninth consecutive race would "please the gentleman" as the shopkeep says in the video above, but he would do so at no more than his morning line odds of 2-to-5 and maybe...
Read More
Sunday, Woodbine, Race 10, Scheduled Post Time 5:38pm ET The G1 Woodbine Mile , Turf, 1 Mile, Three-and-up By Douglas Salvatore Even though the Woodbine Mile might be the least attractive betting race on Sunday's entire card, it will be the focus for us because of the celebrity of Wise Dan. In plain English, Wise Dan should dominate this group. In recent races, he's been victimized by heavy weight...
Read More
The Grade 2 Bowling Green Handicap, Saturday at Belmont (Race 8), Inner Turf, Three-Year Olds and Up, One Mile and One Quarter Get Free PP's for the Bowling Green Handicap The hard-hitting six-year-old Boisterous has been installed as the 7/5 morning line favorite even though he finished a disappointing eighth as the 9/5 favorite in the Sword Dancer just three weeks ago. Much has been made of Boisterous...
Read More
The Grade 1 Spinaway Stakes, Sunday, Saratoga, Two-Year Olds, Main Track, Seven Furlongs Scheduled Post Time: 5:45 PM EDT Get free PP's for the Spinaway Five different horses in today's Spinaway have scored wire-to-wire victories at sprint distances shorter than today's seven furlong distance. The "speed of the speed" is unquestionably Brazen Persuasion (5-1 morning line) from her rail post. She also...
Read More
Pace handicapping is actually a two-step process. The question is not "How fast will they go," but (in the case of front runners), "How fast can this horse go and still win?" "A lot of pace in the race" doesn't set the race up for a closer if three front runners are gassed after a :22 first quarter and :45 half but a fourth horse is able to run those fractions and still come home in :24 for 1:09 for...
Read More
The Travers Stakes is one of those races where there is an onus to have A PICK. When someone asks you, "Who is going to win the Grade 1, $1-million Travers Stakes on Saturday at historic Saratoga Race Course?" The convention is that you have a one-horse answer. I.e. hedging for value or pace or other bet types (e.g. "I'm playing an exacta with...") is not allowed. It's also frowned upon to say, "Decide...
Read More
The Grade 1 TVG Pacific Classic Stakes, Del Mar, Polytrack, Three-and-Up, One Mile and One Quarter Local Post Time - 5:10pm PT Sunday Get Pacific Classic Day PPs at TimeformUS The Pacific Classic has 13 entrants this year and no shortage of long resumes and good recent form. Richard's Kid has already won this race twice and he signalled that he's back in form by winning the Grade 3 Cougar II over this...
Read More
The Grade 2 Woodford Reserve Lake Placid Stakes, Saratoga, Inner Turf, Three-Year Old Fillies, One Mile and One Eighth Caroline Thomas (12-1) is a deep closer who has been subjected to one extremely slow pace after another. (Note that fractions rated to be particularly slow are shown in blue.) She also had some trouble at the start in her last which is not noted in the shorter chart comments you see...
Read More
Sunday, Saratoga, Race 10, 5:45 PM EDT The Grade 2 Saratoga Special, Six and a Half Furlongs, Two-Year Olds And Up, Main Track Foal crop sizes have gotten smaller since the mid 1980s, and as a consequence, trainers have become much more patient in their handling of juveniles. When City Zip won the 2000 edition of the Saratoga Special, he did it while making the seventh start of his career. Fast-forward...
Read More
Sunday Saratoga, Race 9, 5:12 pm ET The Grade 1 Vandebilt, 3-and-up, 6 fulongs, Dirt Betting strategy: Straight exacta: Delaunay over Justin Phillip A field of five is assembled for the Vanderbilt. Delaunay and Gentlemen's Bet both exit the Iowa Sprint Handicap at Prairie Meadows, while Bahamian Squall and Justin Phillip exit the Smile Sprint Handicap at Calder, and the indefatigable Caixa Eletronica...
Read More
TimeFormUS plays for the Cougar II and San Diego handicaps....
Read More
We are introducing new content to the "Unlocking Winners" blog from handicappers with TimeformUS, a new digital past performance service that launched July 17 . TimeformUS will be offering insight to select weekend stakes and provide updates on the blog as track conditions and/or horses entered change, so check in regularly throughout the weekend for updates. And as always, please add your comments...
Read More
Can Orb rebound?...
Read More
Pete likes a 12-1 shot....
Read More
Pete wonders how to make money on the Preakness card...
Read More
Pete breaks down the Derby result....
Read More
Pete handicaps the Ky Oaks, all-graded stakes pick 4...
Read More
Pete dissects a deep field....
Read More
Handicapping the weekend's major prep races...
Read More
Itsmyluckyday, Verrazano remain 1-2 on Pete's Derby rankings...
Read More
Cibelli: "He's 100% fit and ready to go."...
Read More
